Crude Oil Closes Lower, But Remains Above 20 Day Moving Average

April crude oil posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.66.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at $47.99 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.87 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $45.30.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is today's low crossing at $42.25.

Second support is the 10 day moving average support crossing at $40.87.

Mexicos Oil Output Drops, Reliance Announces Plans On Purchase From Chevron

"Oil Falls for the First Time in Four Days on Signs Recession Is Deepening"
Crude oil fell for the first time in four days on concern energy demand will decline, after the U.S. economy contracted faster than anticipated....Complete Story


"Reliance Plans to Acquire Remaining Stake in Petroleum Unit From Chevron"
Reliance Industries Ltd., owner of the world’s largest refining complex, plans to acquire the remaining shares of unit Reliance Petroleum Ltd., after the stock dropped 54 percent in the past year....Complete Story

"Obama Budget Hits Oil and Gas Companies with New Fees,Taxes"
The Obama administration Thursday proposed raising at least $31.5 billion over 10 years from oil and gas companies, reflecting a repeal of tax breaks for domestic production and new charges on oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico....Complete Story

"Mexico's Oil Challenge Rises with New Output Drop"
Doubts are growing that Mexico can halt a four year decline in crude oil production after its January oil output slumped to a more than 13 year low, due to bureaucratic delays and technical challenges....Complete Story

Crude Oil Lower, Still Above 20 Day Moving Average

April crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this week's rally but remains above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at $47.99 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.81 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at $45.30. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.63.

Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.82.

Crude Oil Closes Higher, Stage Is Set For Higher Open On Friday

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.72 confirming that a short term low has been posted.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If April extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at $47.99 is the next upside target.

Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.58 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

First resistance is today's high crossing at $45.30.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is today's low crossing at $42.27.

Second support is the 10 day moving average support crossing at $40.58.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Futures Jump, Chevron Delays Nigerian Projects

"Crude Oil, Gasoline Futures Jump on Signs of Stronger U.S. Demand for Fuel"
Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel and gasoline surged to a three-month high after U.S. stockpiles of the motor fuel dropped....Complete Story

"Chevron Delays 3 Nigerian Projects, Raises Cost Estimates as Much as 103%"
Chevron Corp., the world’s fourth- largest energy company, delayed the start of production at three Nigerian projects and raised cost estimates as much as 103 percent on some of its biggest new sources of output....Complete Story

"Compromise Energy Policy Within Reach"
BP's Chief Executive, Tony Hayward, writes that a collapse in world energy demand and the fall of energy prices present a rare once in a generation opportunity to craft an innovative energy policy for the United States....Complete Story

Crude Oil Continues To Signal Higher Prices Ahead

Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's rally and is trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.63 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $43.57.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.44.

Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Who Are The Winners and Losers On Wall Street?

Winners

Parker Drilling 33.59%
Meridian Resource 20.00%
Energy Partners 15.15%
Input/Output 13.79%
Pioneer Drilling 12.73%

Losers

Edge Petroleum -20.00%
Parallel Petroleum -13.42%
Daugherty Resources -7.27%
Swift Energy -5.07%
Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers -4.29%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Close Above 10 Day Moving Average, Looks Like The Near Term Low Is In

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.35 signaling that a short term low appears to have been posted.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.76 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.76.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Executives Press Congress On Offshore Drilling, Russia Near Deal In Nigeria

"Oil Executives Ask Congress Not to Delay Offshore Drilling"
Top executives at Devon Energy and Shell said Tuesday they will ask Congress not to stall the opening of new offshore drilling areas that can provide the U.S. with a reliable source of energy and jobs....Complete Story

"Gazprom Sees $2.5B Nigeria Deal Sealed in March"
Russia's Gazprom hopes to conclude a $2.5 billion oil and gas exploration deal with Nigeria by the end of March, establishing a 50/50 joint venture with state oil firm NNPC....Complete Story

"Oil Rises for Second Day After Report Shows Decline in Gasoline Supplies"
Crude oil rose to a three week high after a government report showed that U.S. gasoline inventories fell as refineries cut operating rates and demand strengthened....Complete story

"Gasoline Futures in New York Extend Gains as Report Shows Inventories Fell" Gasoline futures advanced after the Energy Department reported supplies fell the most in five months, refiners cut production and drivers bought more motor fuel...Complete story

Crude Oil Moves Back Above 20 Day Moving Average

April crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.69 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $41.49.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.69.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Market Events To Watch For Wednesday, U.S. Energy Department Inventories

10:30 AM ET. Feb 20 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 350.6M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +300K; previous -200K)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 218.7M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -100K; previous +1.1M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 140.8M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1.4M; previous -800K)

Refinery Usage (expected 82.2%; previous 82.3%)

Tuesday's Short Covering Has Crude Oil Closing Higher

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it extends last week's trading range.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $47.99 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.90.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $47.99.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Nymex Up First Time In Three Days, Exxon and Chevron Lift Broader Market

"Nymex Oil Advances for First Time in Three Days as U.S. Equities Rebound"
Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as the U.S. stock market advanced, signaling that fuel use in the world’s biggest energy consuming country may rebound....Complete Story

"Gasoline in New York Has First Gain in Three Days as Stock Futures Climb"
Gasoline futures rose for the first time in three days as U.S. stock indexes advanced after yesterday’s losses and on speculation that supplies of the motor fuel were unchanged last week....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil, Chevron Boost Broad Market"
ExxonMobil and Chevron outpaced gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday as the oil giants bolstered the broad market. A rise in crude oil prices and positive earnings reports from smaller players encouraged buying....Complete Story

"38 Foreign Cos Register for 2nd Iraq Oil Bid Round"
Thirty-eight international oil companies registered at the Iraqi oil ministry to bid for the 11 groups of oil and gas fields put up for a second bidding round by Iraq at the end of last year....Complete Story

Changes Coming For Controversial Oil Leases, Total Denies Deal

"US Interior Sec to Review Oil Companies Controversial Leases"
U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said Friday that changes regarding oil companies' leases would likely be part of a comprehensive energy bill Congress is drafting....Complete Story

"Total CEO Denies 'Sealed Deal' with Iran for South Pars Development"
Total's Chief Executive Officer has denied that the French oil giant and Iran are signing a deal before the end of March for the next phase of development at the massive South Pars gas field....Complete Story

"AEA: Offshore Drilling Could Deliver Huge Payoff in Jobs, Revenue"
The American Energy Alliance said lifting the U.S. prohibition on new offshore drilling would provide 1.2 million jobs and substantial revenue....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher On Short Covering, Still Below 10 Day Moving Average

April crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at $41.26.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $43.41 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If April renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $41.26.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $43.41.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $37.12.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil's High Range Close Sets The Stage For Higher Open On Monday

March crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $42.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.70.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Falls On Deepening Worldwide Recession

Crude Needs to Close Above 5-Day Moving Average to Prompt Rally, PVM Says
Oil futures prices need to close above their five-day moving averages to make a sustained rally, broker PVM Oil Associated Ltd. said....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Falls as Equities Drop on Concern Global Recession Is Deepening"
Crude oil fell, retreating from its largest gain in seven weeks, as global stock markets declined on concern the recession is deepening....Complete Story

"Chu Focuses on US Energy, Not What OPEC Should Do"
Energy Secretary Steven Chu, whose agency has long taken the lead on global oil market policy, said he doesn't know what the Obama administration would urge OPEC to do at its meeting next month....Complete Story

Learn How To Effectively Use Stops In This New Video

This simple trading tip can and will make a difference in your trading results in 2009.

Stops are enormously important part of a traders arsenal of trading tools. Some traders confirm that stops are the most important part of their trading armour.

So here are three ways to use stops to protect your capital and lock in profits from a trade. These three money management techniques can be used in stock, futures and forex trading.

The important rule is that you do use a real stop in the marketplace. A friend of mine joked with me that that he had never seen a “mental stop” filled electronically or in the pits.

If the market is good your stop will not be hit. If the market is bad or changing direction then you’ll want to be out of it anyway. That is why stops are so crucial to trading success.

Click Here To Watch Video

Here are the three most commonly used types of stops. Which one do you use?

(1) Dollar stop.
(2) Percentage stop.
(3) Chart stop.

If you chose (1) you’d be correct, but, you would also be correct if you had chosen 2 or 3. All three are money management stops and are used to either lock in profits or protect capital.

1) A dollar stop, is when you set a predetermined dollar amount to a trade. Let’s say you want to risk $500 on a grain trade or $750 on a stock trade. Once you get your fill back from your broker or electronically online you simply figure from your fill price where to put your stop.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close in a volatile market

————————————————–

2) Percentage stop, is a very simple way for you to place a stop on a position. Here’s how it works. Let’s say your trading account is 100,000 dollars and let’s say you only want to risk 1% of your total portfolio on any one trade. You simply take a $1,000 risk which represents 1% of your over all portfolio. This can help enormously in avoiding taking BIG LOSSES. A 1% loss is easy to absorb. A 30% or 40% loss in a trade is an account killer, and should be avoided at all costs.

Pros: Easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can place stops too close.

————————————————–

3) Chart stop, a chart stop is where you place a stop that is either above or below a crucial chart level. The good thing about a chart stop is that this level is often used by other traders. That can both be a good thing and a bad thing, here’s why. Using either one of our first two examples only you know where the stop is. With a chart stop, a great many traders/brokers know that is where the stops are. In an illiquid market this type of stop should not be used, as many times brokers gun for the stops. In a highly liquid and active market this is a good stop to use.

Pros: Very easy to implement and use.
Cons: Can’t be used in thinly traded markets.

————————————————–

So there you have it. Now you have all three ways to manage your money and protect your profits in 2009.

Use stops…let them work for you.

Click Here To Watch Video

Crude Oil Rally May Be One And Done, Near Term Low Might Be In

March crude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.18.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.66.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Closes Above 10 Day Moving Average

March crude oil closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.51 signaling that a short term low might be in place.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $42.68 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.93.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $42.68.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Increases On Lower Inventory, Petrobras Next Up For Chinese Loan"

"Crude Oil Jumps After Report Shows Unexpected Decline in U.S. Inventories"
Crude oil rose more than 10 percent in New York after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected drop in inventories....Complete Story

"Petrobras Signs a $10 Billion Loan Agreement With China Development Bank"
Petroleo Brasileiro SA signed a loan agreement for $10 billion with China’s Development bank, Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said today....Complete Story

"Majority of OPEC Governors Against Cut in March"
The majority of OPEC governors are opposed to a new output reduction being decided at a scheduled conference of the group in March but may support a 1.6 million barrels a day cut later, according to a Dow Jones News report....Complete Story

"Low Oil Prices Set to Delay Chevron Project in Cambodia"
Falling oil prices are likely to delay U.S. oil giant Chevron's development of Block A near southwestern Cambodia....Complete Story

Crude Oil Consolidates Below Broken Support

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates below broken support marked by December's low, which crosses at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.11. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $39.75.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Market Key Events For Thursday

10:30 AM ET. Feb 13 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet

Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2020)

Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous –159)

11:00 AM ET. Feb 13 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Stocks (previous 350.78M)

Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.7M; previous +4.71M)

Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.55M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -400K; previous -2.66M)

Distillate Stocks (previous 141.56M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -1M; previous -1.03M)

Refinery Usage (expected 81.6%; previous 81.6%)

Crude Oil's Low Range Close Sets The Stage For Possible Lower Opening On Thursday

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.57.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.14.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Oil Futures Fall Ahead Of Thursday Inventory Numbers

"Oil Futures for April Fall on Expectations of Further U.S. Inventory Gain"
Crude oil for April delivery fell on speculation that a government report tomorrow will show U.S. supplies climbed for the 19th time in 21 weeks as the recession cuts demand....Complete Story

"Oil Companies Bet on Swift Price Rebound Has Its Risks"
Major oil companies are promising to maintain investment through the current price dip, but the risk is growing that a prolonged slump could stymie their plans....Complete Story

"How Much Is Oil Really Worth?"
Is crude oil in the mid $30s per barrel, or in the low-$40s? Both, it turns out, which makes it increasingly difficult to figure out the headline price of crude, the world's heaviest traded commodity....Complete Story

"Sakhalin 2 Project Starts Russia's First LNG Plant"
Sakhalin Energy, the Gazprom-led consortium developing the Sakhalin 2 project in Russia's Far East, Wednesday started up Russia's first LNG liquefaction plant....Complete Story

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If March extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $37.61.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.16.

First support is last Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.


4:30 PM ET. Feb 13 API Oil Industry Report

Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.99M)

Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.92M)

Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous -853K)

Refinery Runs (previous 81.9%)

Crude Oil Oversold, Is The Short Term Low In?

March crude oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday as it consolidated some of last Friday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. If March renews this month's decline, psychological support crossing at 30.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 38.19. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 40.45. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 33.55. Second support is psychological support crossing at 30.00.

Transocean Profits Fall, China To Prop Up Russia With Loan

"Oil Falls Below $35 as Deepening Recession Slows Global Demand for Fuels"
Crude oil fell below $35 a barrel in New York on speculation a deepening recession in the U.S., Europe and Asia will reduce fuel demand....Complete Story

"Transocean's Profit Falls as Tumbling Energy Prices Reduce Value of Rigs"
Transocean, the world’s largest offshore oil driller, said quarterly profit fell for the first time in more than two years after tumbling energy prices cut the value of some rigs and well-management services....Complete Story

"Eyes on Saudis As OPEC Weighs Output Cuts"
As OPEC ponders its next move at its March 15 meeting, analysts said the scope for further output cuts by the Saudis may be limited by domestic energy needs for natural gas to cool the desert kingdom as spring approaches....Complete Story

"Russia, China Ink $25B Oil Loan Deal"
Russia signed its biggest ever energy deal with China on Tuesday, under which its oil companies will receive $25 billion in loans in exchange for long-term crude supplies....Complete Story

IEA, Exxon and Russia All Eye The Future Of Oil Inventory

"IEA Chief Urges OPEC Against More Output Cuts"
The International Energy Agency on Monday urged OPEC nations against cutting oil production further when they meet next month....Complete Story

"ExxonMobil To Carry On Spending Despite Oil Price"
U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp will not cut back on investments in new crude production, despite the collapse in oil prices, the company's regional head of exploration said on Monday....Complete Story

"Russia Studies Large Crude Inventory"
Russia is working towards creating a state reserve to buy crude from producers when prices are low, potentially removing up to 16 million tonnes of Russian oil from export markets....Complete Story

NYMEX Trading and Processing Schedule

Monday February 16, 2008 (President's Day)

* NYMEX and COMEX trading floors will be closed.
* The DME intraday settlement price (OSP) to be published at the normal
time of 3:30 AM for February 16 calendar date. No post-close
settlement to be published.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) will open for trading/trade submission for the February 19
trade date until the trading halt at 5:15 PM.
* Day/session orders entered on CME Globex or DME Direct will be for the
February 17 trade date and will continue until Tuesday's close at
5:15 PM.
* NYMEX trading at settlement (TAS) products on CME Globex will be
available for trading for the February 17 trade date.
* NYMEX TMS will be available for trade management for February 19 trade
date.
* NYMEX cleared trades API will be available.
* Markets will not be settled and settlements will not be published, as
February 16 is not a trade or processing date.
* NYMEX intraday files will not be produced, no clearing will occur, and
no clearing functionality will be available.
* Daily SPAN and erosion files will not be produced (an additional
erosion file will be produced on February 17).
* Options cannot be exercised.
* There will not be any allocation of energy and metal deliveries or
delivery notices, and related forms will not be accepted.
* The first normal intraday file generated on calendar date February 17
will contain trades from calendar date February 16.
* NYMEX and COMEX products on CME Globex and NYMEX ClearPort (including
DME Direct) all reopen for trading/trade submission at 6:00 PM
(February 19 Trade Date).


Tuesday February 17, 2008

* Normal schedule resumes.
* Banking for February 15th clearing cycle will occur.
* Large trader reporting for NYMEX and COMEX for February 15th trade date
for any clearing members not holding DME positions are due by 8:00 AM.
* "Double Erosion" will occur to account for the February 18 Peak Day.
Two erosion files will be produced.

Crude Oil Futures Price Updates

Just click on the graph to enlarge......

Crude Oil Closes Higher But Remains Bearish Near Term

March crude oil closed sharply higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this week's decline psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.82 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $38.67.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.82.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

IEA Projects Higher Oil Prices On Projected OPEC Cuts

"New OPEC Cut Would Push Oil Prices Higher-IEA"
If OPEC decides to cut oil production levels again at its March meeting, that would further tighten global petroleum supplies and put upward pressure on oil prices, the head of the International Energy Agency said on Friday. "Our current projection suggests that (world oil supplies are) tightening, and a further (OPEC) cut.....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Surges on Speculation Plunge Earlier This Week Was Unjustified"
Crude oil rose the most in three weeks on speculation that a 9.6 percent drop in prices this week was larger than justified as governments implement stimulus programs....Complete Story

"Norwegian Oil Firm Goes to Energy's Last Frontier"
A Norwegian oil company has gone to the ends of the earth to get at some of the world's last untapped energy resources....Complete Story

"OPEC Members Carry Out 65% of Production Cuts So Far"
Members of OPEC have implemented nearly two-thirds of the production cuts of 4.2 million barrels per day that they agreed to last September, an OPEC report showed Friday....Complete Story

Crude Oil Slightly Higher Overnight On Short Covering

March crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $38.36.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $40.66.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at $33.55.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Crude Oil Remains Oversold, Signals Bearish Prices Near Term

March crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline and closed below psychological support crossing at $35.00.

If March extends this week's decline psychological support crossing at $30.00 is the next downside target.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.14 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.12.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.14.

First support is today's low crossing at $33.85.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $30.00.

Total Beats Estimates and Eni Sells Livorno Refinery

"Total Beats Profit Estimates, Will Maintain Investment Spending in 2009"
Total SA, Europe’s third largest oil company, reported fourth quarter earnings that beat analyst estimates and pledged to maintain investment spending at a similar level to last year to revive production growth....Complete Story

"Api Said to Join Investors in Offering to Buy Eni's Livornro Oil Refinery"
Anonima Petroli Italiana SpA, an Italian gas station company, together with a group of investors, has made an offer to buy an Eni SpA refinery in Livorno, Italy, said Enrico Risaliti, a businessman who is part of the bid....Complete Story

"Unconventional Gas Boosts Outlook for Future Supply"
CERA has augmented its expectations for North American gas supply in the wake of successful unconventional gas production....Complete Story

"Shell Declares Force Majeure on Nigeria Bonny Oil"
Royal Dutch Shell declared force majeure on its Nigerian Bonny oil shipments due to insecurity in the Niger Delta....Complete Story

Crude Oil Testing First Support At $35.18

March crude oil was lower overnight as it extends this week's decline below December's low crossing at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.20 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.26.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.20.

First support is the overnight low crossing at $35.18.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil Set To Open Lower On Thursday

March crude oil closed lower on Wednesday confirming yesterday's breakout below December's low crossing at $38.00.

The stage is set for a test of psychological support crossing at $35.00.

The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.65 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $39.88.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.65.

First support is today's low crossing at $35.65.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast and Saudi Arabia Doubles Spare Capacity

"Big Oil Leaders Bet on Long Term Energy Growth"
Touting an optimistic message, some Big Oil executives insist that long-term growth in energy demand remains unchanged....Complete Story

"Nigerian Oil Workers Mull Full Scale, Nationwide Strike"
Two main oil workers' unions are insisting on a full scale, nationwide strike against insecurity in the Niger Delta....Complete Story

"IEA Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast on Recession, Sees 1 Million-Barrel Drop"
The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecast for 2009, projecting consumption will decline by 1 million barrels a day as the worldwide recession deepens, the biggest drop since 1982....Complete Story

"Saudi Arabia to More Than Double Spare Capacity by Mid-Year"
Al-Naimi Says Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, will more than double its spare capacity by the middle of the year to 4.5 million barrels a day as it brings....Complete Story

Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Magellan Petroleum 18.03%
Boots & Coots International Well Control 9.17%
Comstock Resources 1.34%
ICO 0.42%
Edge Petroleum 0.00%

Losers

TETRA Technologies -28.05%
Energy Partners -19.30%
Meridian Resource -18.18%
Stone Energy -11.98%
Parallel Petroleum -11.64%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Breaks Through $38 Support

March crude oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline but remains below broken support marked by December's low crossing at $38.00.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, psychological support crossing at $35.00 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.06.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $41.74.

First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $37.35.

Second support is psychological support crossing at $35.00.

Crude Oil Sets Stage For Possible Lower Opening On Wednesday Morning

March crude oil closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends this year's decline, December's low crossing at 38.00 is the next downside target.

Closes below December's low crossing at $38.00 would open the door for a possible test of psychological support crossing at $30.00 later this winter.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.15 would temper the near term bearish outlook in the market.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.15.

Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at $48.59.

First support is today's low crossing at $38.41.

Second support is December's low crossing at $38.00.

"Chevron Locked Into Contracts.......Also Trying To Unload Big Foot"

"Chevron, BP Locked Into $200 Million Oil Wells Amid Crude Price Declines"
Chevron Corp. other oil producers are locked into drilling offshore wells that cost as much as $200 million each because of rig contracts that were signed when crude was soaring above $140 a barrel....Complete Story

"Pemex May Weather Financial Crisis by Avoiding Marginal Projects, CEO Says"
Petroleos Mexicanos, the state owned oil company, is in better shape to weather the global financial crisis because it avoids marginal projects such as oil sands, Chief Executive Officer Jesus Reyes Heroles said....Complete Story

"Chevron Approaches Oil Cos over Big Foot Farm Out"
Chevron Corp. has approached rival oil producers about the possibility of acquiring part of its stake in the Big Foot oil field in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico....Complete Story

"Mitsubishi, Petrobras Team Up to Build $830MM Deepwater Drillship"
Mitsubishi Corp and Petrobras have agreed to jointly build an $830 million ultra-deepwater drillship, slated for delivery in June 2010....Complete Story

Crude Oil Signals Bearish Pricing Possible Near Term

March crude oil was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it continues to trade sideways to lower off the late January high.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If March extends the decline, January's low crossing at $39.11 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.23 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Closes above the reaction high crossing at $48.59 are needed to confirm that a trend change has taken place.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at $40.77.

Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at $42.23.

First support is last Friday's low crossing at $38.60.

Second support is December's low crossing at $38.00.

Crude Oil Industry News For Monday

"Crude Oil Rises on Speculation Economic Stimulus Plan Will Revive Demand"
Crude oil rose the most in two weeks on speculation that a U.S. stimulus plan will revive demand in the world’s largest energy consuming country....Complete Story

"Oil Sands Explorer UTS Energy Rejects Total's $506 Million Takeover Offer"
UTS Energy Corp.’s board said Total SA’s C$617 million ($506 million) offer for the Canadian oil sands explorer is inadequate and recommended shareholders reject the bid by Europe’s third largest petroleum company....Complete Story

"Saudi Arabia Keeps China Oil Cos at Arm's Length"
Despite burgeoning trade between China and Saudi Arabia, progress is slow for China's biggest oil and gas companies in securing equity stakes in Saudi's oil and natural gas fields....Complete Story

"OPEC Shelves 35 Oil Projects, Warns of Falling Investment"
OPEC nations have collectively postponed 35 oil drilling projects that had been in various stages of development a sign that the cartel is starting to feel the impact of low crude prices....Complete Story

"Nigerian Oil Workers Strike over Attacks, Kidnappings"
Oil workers in Nigeria's oil-producing Niger Delta went on strike Monday to complain about a lack of protection from militant groups who attack oil facilities and kidnap workers....Complete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News For Friday

"Venezuela Oil Workers Pressure Rig Companies As Woes Mount"
Oil workers aligned with the government of President Hugo Chavez are pressuring rig companies to continue drilling, despite the state's failure to pay for those services at a time of rock-bottom oil prices....Complete Story

"Surge in US Crude Stocks Blunts OPEC Cuts"
Despite OPEC's cut of 1.3 million barrels a day in January, the growing supply glut is a serious setback to the cartel's efforts to curb the crude oil contango....Complete Story

"Crude Oil Falls as U.S. Unemployment Rate Surges, Signaling Lower Demand"
Crude oil fell to a two week low after unemployment in the U.S. climbed in January to the highest level since 1992, signaling that the recession in the world’s biggest energy consuming country is deepening....Complete Story

"Korea National Oil, Ecopetrol Acquire Peru's Petro Tech for $900 Million"
Korea National Oil Corp. and Ecopetrol SA bought Petro-Tech Peruana SA of Peru for $900 million to increase production as falling crude prices reduce the cost of acquiring commodity assets....Complete Story

Oil Industry Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Brigham Exploration 7.46%
Goodrich Petroleum 6.44%
McMoRan Exploration 6.26%
Halliburton 6.15%

Losers

Edge Petroleum -11.11%
FMC Technologies -10.04%
Allis-Chalmers Energy -7.16%
Devon Energy -6.17%
Meridian Resource -5.88%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Industry Headline News

"Oil Rises, Rebounding From Two Week Low, on Signs of Stronger Fuel Demand"
Crude oil rose, following a rally in the stock market, and as a government report showed U.S. fuel consumption increased....Complete Story

"Chevron Reports New Discovery in Gulf of Mexico That May Rival Jack Find"
Chevron Corp., the second biggest U.S. oil company, made an oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico that may rival the 500 million-barrel Jack prospect found in 2004....Complete Story

"US Lawmakers Preparing to Draft New Offshore Drilling Laws"
Federal lawmakers are gearing up to legislate a new offshore drilling plan that could restrict development in major areas of the Outer Continental Shelf, but allow some acreage previously closed to access to be opened for exploration....Complete Story

"China's Sinopec Takes A Close Look at Mexico's Oil Patch"
China's Sinopec Group is the first integrated oil company to test the waters in Mexico after Congress passed an energy reform last fall....Complete Story

"Apache Won't Resort to Layoffs at This Time"
Oil and gas producer Apache Corp. will hold on to its employees despite the fact that energy price and profits have plummeted in recent months....Complete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News For Wednesday

"Pan-European Oil Pipeline in Doubt"
An oil pipeline linking the Caspian basin and Italy by 2012 appears to be in doubt due to a lack of clear commitment from partner countries Croatia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia and Italy.....Complete Story

"Oil Declines After Report Shows Larger Than Expected U.S. Inventory Gain"
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. inventories jumped more than twice what analysts forecast....Complete Story

"Petrobras to Sell 10-Year Bonds on Market Gabrielli Called Too Expensive"
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, is selling dollar bonds today, a week after Chief Executive Officer Jose Sergio Gabrielli said he put off plans to issue debt because international markets are "too expensive"....Complete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News For Tuesday

"U.S. Refiners, Steelworkers Reach Tentative Contract Accord, Avert Strike"
Refiners reached a tentative agreement on a new contract for about 30,000 unionized employees, averting a strike that would have affected almost two thirds of U.S. capacity to make gasoline, diesel and other fuels....Complete Story

"BP Reports Its First Quarterly Loss in Seven Years as Oil Prices Decline"
BP Plc, Europe’s second-biggest oil company, posted its first quarterly loss in seven years and predicted demand for crude will continue to fall in 2009 as the global recession deepens....Complete Story

"Iraq Extends 2nd Bidding Round of Oil Contracts"
The Iraqi Oil Ministry gave a two-week extension for foreign oil firms to send in documentation for the second round of licensing for long-term development contracts....Complete Story

"BP Says Oil Majors Could Merge with State Oil Cos"
BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said western oil majors could merge with state owned oil companies but dismissed mergers between the majors themselves....omplete Story

Crude Oil Industry Headline News For Monday

"Oil Falls on Speculation Fuel Demand Will Drop More as Recession Deepens"
Crude oil fell on speculation that the recession in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, will deepen and reduce demand....Complete Story

"Gasoline Futures Fall, Narrowing Refiner Margins, as Strike May be Averted"
Gasoline futures fell the most in almost a month and refinery margins narrowed on speculation a strike by workers at U.S. fuel plants may be averted....Complete Story

"Oil Industry Wary of New US Interior Secretary's Policies"
Despite Interior Secretary Ken Salazar's vow to draft a comprehensive energy policy that includes new domestic oil and gas drilling, the industry is watching with a wary eye....Complete Story

"Iraq Oil Fields Ready for Revival, Await Foreigners"
Iraq has launched a bidding round for some of its largest oil and gas fields, which it hopes will attract multibillion dollar investments. There is still some confusion over the deals, scheduled to be awarded by June....Complete Story