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Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Short Covering Gives Crude Oil Bulls Hope.....Bears Still in Charge Here
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10 Reasons Why Obamacare Is Going to Ruin Your Medical Care… and Your Life
By Elizabeth Lee Vliet, M.D.
Of course you've heard of "liar loans"—in the heyday of subprime mortgages, unscrupulous lenders handed out mortgages to practically everyone with a pulse. "So you're saying you make $100,000 a year? Great, check this box titled 'McMansion.'"We all know how this charade ended. Now Dr. Elizabeth Lee Vliet, M.D., an acclaimed expert on the subject of Obamacare, warns that the delay of the employer mandate by one year will force Americans into a single payer system, raising insurance premiums and encouraging "liar subsidies" that might prove fiscally devastating. Not to mention that under the new health care system, you may well end up dead…
Dan Steinhart
Editor, Casey Research
Obamacare is a hodgepodge of new regulations, requirements, and penalties. I'd like to start by defining three terms, which, while obscure today, should begin to enter our everyday vocabulary as Obamacare continues to take effect:
Health insurance exchanges are the basket of qualified insurance policies that meet the new healthcare law requirements for expanded coverage. These may be set up by the states (many are refusing to do so, due to high cost and fear of bankrupting the state) or the federal government. The Exchanges are supposed to be fully operational by October 1, 2013, but it is questionable whether they will actually be in place by that deadline.
The individual mandate requires that individuals purchase health insurance that meets the new, expanded federal requirements. Individuals who do not comply face a financial penalty. Individuals who fall below minimum income levels will be eligible for taxpayer-funded subsidies to buy health insurance.
The employer mandate requires that businesses with more than 50 full-time employees must provide health insurance for all employees, and that insurance must meet the new standards set forth in the new law. Businesses that do not comply must pay a financial penalty for each employee, which for large companies can run into the millions of dollars annually. This is the piece of Obamacare that has been delayed by one year.
Selective Enforcement
Why delay one component of Obamacare and not the others? More specifically, why delay the employer mandate but not the individual mandate?To answer that question, we must first understand this fact: Obama wants a single payer healthcare system in the US.
This is not a secret:
Barack Obama, 2003: "I happen to be a proponent of a single payer healthcare system for America, but as all of you know, we may not get there immediately."
Barack Obama, 2007: "But I don't think we will be able to eliminate employer-based coverage immediately. There is potentially going to be some transition time."
Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL), 2009: "Next to me was a guy from the insurance company who then argued against the public option. He said it would not let private insurance companies compete. A public option would put the private insurance companies out of business and lead to single payer. My single payer friends, he was right. The man was right!"
The "public option" has been renamed "Medicaid expansion," which serves the public-relations purpose of confusing the public and avoiding calling taxpayer-funded healthcare "single payer."
Jacob S. Hacker (Yale Professor), 2008: "Someone once said to me this is a Trojan Horse for single payer. It's not a Trojan Horse, right? It's right there! I am telling you. We are going to get there. Over time. Slowly. But we are going to move away from reliance on employer-based health insurance, as we should, but we will do it in a way that we are not going to frighten people into thinking they are going to lose their private insurance. We will give them a choice of public or private insurance when they are in the pool. We are going to let them keep their private insurance as long as their employer continues to provide it."
Hacker nicely sums up the underlying goals of Obamacare: not to increase competition or patient choice, but to drive people out of private insurance as a stepping stone to a government-run, single-payer system.Stepping Stone to Single-Payer
Knowing Obama and his cohorts' goals, the purpose behind the delay of the employer mandate seems clearer: to hurry the "transition time" away from employer-based health insurance and to a single-payer system.By forcing individuals to purchase compliant healthcare plans but not forcing employers to provide those plans, Obama is creating a swell of 10-13 million workers that must enroll in health insurance, but cannot obtain it from their employers. These workers thus have no choice but to use the government-controlled health insurance exchanges, or else pay a financial penalty.
This represents a doubling of the number of workers forced to get health insurance on the exchanges.
Importantly, the IRS has ruled that if workers have access to affordable health insurance through their employer, their dependents are not eligible for taxpayer-funded subsidies on the Obamacare health insurance exchanges.
Now that businesses will not be required to offer health insurance until 2015, workers and their dependents will be eligible for taxpayer-funded subsidies to purchase health insurance on the exchanges.
This will cost taxpayers an estimated $60 billion dollars in 2014 alone to cover the increased costs of subsidies—and the loss of revenue from employer penalties.
This $60 billion figure is before we take into account the "liar subsidies" that will invariably occur now that the administration has quietly removed eligibility verification for taxpayer-funded subsidies.
Community organizers are already being hired around the country to sign people up for the health exchanges. There are no penalties for failing to verify eligibility, and no penalties for signing up people who cannot afford to pay the monthly insurance premiums.
It is set up for disaster, much like the "liar loans" that helped topple the mortgage industry when people were not required to verify their income to qualify for a mortgage.
Remember, by enacting the dual mandates, Obamacare ostensibly was designed to ensure that its costs were borne by businesses, not taxpayers. But when the president decided to enforce only certain portions of the healthcare law and delay others, he shifted the cost of health insurance onto the backs of taxpayers.
This is all on top of the burdensome costs Obamacare has already created. Various studies have projected that private insurance premiums will rise between 20 to 60% in 2014, and some as much as 100%.
How long will the private-insurance market survive with such exploding costs? People will not be able to afford such massive premium increases. That seems to be the point: drive up costs and drive everyone into the arms of government-controlled medical care.
Jeff Smith from Seattle summed it up nicely in a Wall Street Journal letter on June 12:
"I was going to leave my job… to start a business until I shopped around for a healthcare plan: At Group Health, a health-maintenance organization in Seattle, I was given a quote of $842 per month for me and my family. But that would increase to $2,320 starting in January 2014 when Obamacare kicks in—a 276% increase. Why? Because I would be forced to carry coverage I don't want and don't need, such as maternity care. Welcome to the world of socialized medicine, courtesy of the Un-Affordable Care Act."
How Obamacare Affects You and Your Medical Care
The delay in the employer mandate is but one of dozens of negative impacts Obamacare will have on your medical services. As an independent physician, I've been discussing these issues with my patients for the past few years, helping them to prepare for what's ahead.Here are the ten most important points that I tell my patients:
- Your private insurance premiums will cost more and more each year.
- You will lose the choices and flexibility in health insurance policies that we have had available up until now.
- As reimbursements continue to drop, fewer and fewer doctors will take Medicare (for those 65 and older) or Medicaid (people younger than 65).
- Fewer doctors accepting Medicare and Medicaid causes an increase in wait times for appointments and a decrease in the numbers and types of specialists available on these plans. Consumers would be wise to line up their doctors now.
- Studies from various organizations and states have consistently shown that Medicaid recipients have longer waits for medical care, fewer options for specialists, poorer medical outcomes, and die sooner after surgeries than people with no health insurance at all. Yet an increasing number of Americans will be forced into this second-class medical care.
- As more people enter the taxpayer-funded plans (Medicare and Medicaid) instead of paying for private insurance, the costs to provide this increased medical care and medications will escalate, leading to higher taxes.
- With no eligibility verifications in place, millions of people who are in the US illegally will be able to access taxpayer-funded medical services, making longer lines, longer wait times, and less money available for medical care for American citizens… unless taxes are increased even more.
- Higher expenditures to provide medical services lead to rationing of medical care and treatment options to reduce costs. This is the mandated function of the Independent Payment Advisory Board: to cut costs by deciding which types of medical services to allow… or disallow.
If you are denied treatment, you have no appeal of IPAB decisions; you are simply out of luck, and possibly out of life. This is a radical departure from the appeals process required for all private health insurance plans. Further, the IPAB is accountable only to President Obama, and cannot be overridden by Congress or the courts. IPAB is designed to have the final word on your health.
- Under current regulations, if medical care is denied by Medicare, then a patient is not allowed to pay cash to a Medicare-contracted physician or hospital or other health professional. Patients who need medical care that is denied under Medicare or Medicaid will find themselves having to either: 1) look for an independent physician or hospital (quite rare these days); or 2) go outside the USA for treatment.
- Expect a loss of medical privacy. Beginning in 2014, if you participate in government health insurance, your health records will be sent to a centralized federal database, with or without your consent.
Americans need to become far more proactive about taking charge of their health. The healthier you are, the less vulnerable you are to our degrading healthcare system. It's also wise to consider proactively planning for medical treatment options outside the US.
Dr. Vliet will share her thoughts on what Obamacare will do to medical freedom and privacy—and the steps Americans can take now to preserve both—at the upcoming Casey Research Summit 3 Days with Casey, October 4-6 in Tucson, Arizona.
Aside from Dr. Vliet, our blue-ribbon faculty includes keynote speaker Dr. Ron Paul, economic and investment experts Catherine Austin Fitts, Lacy Hunt, James Rickards, John Mauldin, Rick Rule, Chris Martenson, and many more. Most of the speakers have agreed to attend the conference for the entire three days and mingle with the participants.
This is one conference you don't want to miss, but seats are filling up fast.
Get all the details now—if you sign up today, you can still get our $100 first-come, first-save discount.
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Murphy Oil Corp. Reports 2nd Quarter 2013 Earnings
The 2013 income from discontinued operations was primarily generated by an after tax gain of $71.9 million from sale of the Mungo and Monan fields in the United Kingdom during the just completed quarter. Income from continuing operations was $332.1 million ($1.75 per diluted share) for the 2013 second quarter compared to $291.3 million ($1.50 per diluted share) in the same quarter of 2012.
The results of continuing operations improved in 2013 primarily due to higher earnings in the U.S. oil and gas business, which was attributable to growth in oil production in the Eagle Ford Shale area in South Texas.
Read the entire Murphy Oil Corp. earnings report.
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Phillips 66 2nd Quarter Profit Falls 19 Percent
The refining division's adjusted earnings fell by nearly half partly due to outages at several refineries, including the Sweeny refinery built in Texas in 1942 and the Wood River refinery built in Illinois in 2003. Earnings from the chemicals division fell too.
The company said it earned $958 million, or $1.53 per share, compared with $1.18 billion, or $1.86 per share, a year earlier.
Excluding a gain on asset sales, adjusted earnings were $935 million, or $1.50 per share. Revenue fell 8 percent to $43.95 billion.
Analysts expected the company to earn $1.81 per share on revenue of $42.03 billion, according to FactSet.
Phillips 66 shares fell $1.32, or 2.3 percent, to $57.15 in premarket trading.
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Hess Reports Second Quarter 2013 Earnings
Hess says proceeds from $3.5B in asset sales made so far in 2013 have allowed it cut debts by $2.4B and add cash to its books. Will book $933M income from the $2.05B sale of Samara-Nafta to Lukoil made in April; without the sale, Q2 net income fell to $520M from $549M in the year-ago period.
The Russian divestment and other sales sent Q2 production falling to 341K boe from 429K boe a year ago, but output was within 340K-355K boe guidance.
Read the entire Hess earnings report
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Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Crude oil closes below the 20 day moving average, does this confirm a near term top is in?
The September S&P 500 closed unchanged on Tuesday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1665.30.
October gold closed lower on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1286.50. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.
September Henry natural gas closed lower on Tuesday as it extends this decline off May's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.656. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.418. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.
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Ensco and National Oilwell Varco Report Second Quarter Earnings ESV NOV
The Company’s revenues for the second quarter of 2013 were $5.60 billion, which improved six percent from the first quarter of 2013 and 18 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Operating profit for the second quarter of 2013 was $826 million, or 14.7 percent of sales, excluding transaction charges.
Backlog for capital equipment orders for the Company’s Rig Technology segment was at a historic record level of $13.95 billion as of June 30, 2013, up eight percent from the end of the first quarter of 2013 and up 24 percent from the end of the second quarter of 2012. New orders during the quarter were $3.15 billion, reflecting continued strong demand for oilfield equipment.
Pete Miller, Chairman and CEO of National Oilwell Varco, remarked, “The second quarter of 2013 marked another solid quarter for NOV. Despite seasonal slowdowns in Canada and a challenging US market, the Company produced sequential gains in revenues and earnings, which were largely driven by strong revenues out of backlog and significant international growth within our Petroleum Services & Supplies and Distribution & Transmission segments.
The Company also ended the quarter with an all-time record backlog of capital equipment, as orders for new floaters and jackups continued at a strong pace, and orders for our floating production equipment more than doubled from the first quarter.” Miller continued, “In addition to our solid operating results, we are also proud to have doubled our regular dividend in the second quarter, further demonstrating our commitment to return more cash to our shareholders. As we move through the second half of 2013, we look forward to continued demand for our offshore drilling and floating production equipment, a gradual rebound in Canada, and continued growth from our other international operations.”
Read the entire National Oilwell Varco earnings report
Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Dan Rabun stated, “We continue to see strong, broad-based customer demand given the steady pace of new discoveries that must be appraised and developed. Based on our positive outlook, we recently ordered our eighth Samsung DP3 drillship, ENSCO DS-10, and our seventh Keppel FELS B Class jackup, ENSCO 110.”
Mr. Rabun added, “These new assets reinforce our fleet standardization strategy that provides customers consistently high levels of operational excellence.”
Revenues grew 17% to a record $1.248 billion in second quarter 2013 from $1.071 billion a year ago. Operating income grew 12% to $452 million and earnings increased $20 million to a record $361 million. The addition of ENSCO 8506 and ENSCO DS-6 to the active fleet as well as a full quarter of operations for ENSCO 8505 drove these increases. The average day rate for the fleet increased $36,000 year to year to $228,000.
Contract drilling expense was $607 million, up from $494 million in second quarter 2012. This increase was primarily due to adding new floaters to the active fleet as well as a previously anticipated increase in labor costs.
Depreciation expense was $153 million compared to $136 million a year ago. The $17 million increase was mostly due to a growing active fleet. General and administrative expense was $36 million in second quarter 2013, equal to second quarter 2012.
Interest expense in second quarter 2013 was $44 million, net of $13 million of interest that was capitalized, compared to interest expense of $30 million in second quarter 2012, net of $28 million of interest that was capitalized.
Read the entire Ensco earnings report
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Monday, July 29, 2013
Markets Close Slightly Lower as Traders Appear to be in Wait and See Mode
The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54.
October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.
September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.
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Anadarko and Superior Energy Report 2nd Quarter Earnings
Second Quarter 2013 Highlights
* Generated $290 million of adjusted free cash flow(2)
* Increased U.S. onshore oil volumes by almost 20,000 barrels per day over second-quarter 2012
* Reached milestones at four large scale oil projects in Algeria, Ghana and the Gulf of Mexico
* Drilled five deepwater discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Mozambique
"We continue to have exceptional performance from our portfolio, as evidenced by the results delivered in the second quarter of 2013," said Anadarko Chairman, President and CEO Al Walker. "Our U.S. onshore activities delivered year over year oil growth of 25 percent, averaging approximately 97,000 barrels per day during the quarter. We continued to drive significant improvements into our drilling and completions programs, and costs in each category were favorable to our expectations.
We reached milestones at four of our large global oil projects, which are advancing on schedule and on budget, and we achieved a success rate of almost 70 percent in our deepwater exploration/appraisal program, including five new discoveries. We also strengthened the balance sheet, improving our net debt to adjusted capitalization ratio(2) to 29 percent compared to 34 percent at the end of 2012."
Read the entire Anadarko earnings report
These results compare with the second quarter of 2012 net income from continuing operations of $142.8 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, and net income of $141.9 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, on revenue of $1,243.3 million.
For the six months ended June 30, 2013, the Company recorded net income of $132.3 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,295.2 million. For the six months ended June 30, 2012, the Company recorded net income from continuing operations of $213.0 million, or $1.49 per diluted share, and net income of $195.8 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,210.2 million.
David Dunlap, President and CEO of the Company, commented, "As previously announced, our decision to relocate pressure pumping equipment coupled with a slowdown in Mexico and weather in North Dakota impacted our results. However, this was partially offset by some underlying positives during the quarter including improved profit margins, increasing Gulf of Mexico activity and execution of our international growth strategy.
"We were able to slightly increase profit margins for the second consecutive quarter in the Onshore Completions and Workover segment despite downtime in pressure pumping related to equipment relocation and downtime for most services impacted by poor weather in North Dakota. This was achieved by our disciplined approach of maintaining margins rather than growing market share.
"Gulf of Mexico activity has increased at a rapid pace relative to last year with increases coming across our three business segments with operations in the Gulf. Our Gulf of Mexico revenue for the first six months of 2013 increased 34% over the first six months of 2012. Drilling Products and Services segment revenue in the first half of 2013 has increased 30% over the first half of 2012 due to increased deepwater drilling activity. In addition, our Subsea and Technical Solutions segment revenue in the Gulf is 29% higher as a result of a robust market for completion tools and products.
Finally, our international revenue for the first six months of 2013 has increased 13% over the first half of 2012 as growth plans in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina collectively performed as anticipated and in some cases, ahead of schedule."
Read the entire Superior Energy earnings report
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Sunday, July 28, 2013
This weeks earnings reports schedule from the oil sector
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Monday Consensus EPS One year ago actual
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) $0.880 $0.850
Superior Energy Services (SPN) $0.480 $0.830
Tuesday
Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) $0.220 $0.230
Ensco (ESV) $1.50 $1.41
Holly Energy Partners (HEP) $0.300 $0.320
National Oilwell Varco (NOV) $1.33 $1.46
Occidental Pete Corp (OXY) $1.63 $1.64
Wednesday
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) $1.34 $0.790
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO) $0.060 $0.12
Hess Corp (HES) $1.39 $1.72
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) $1.54 $1.52
Phillips 66 (PSX) $1.94 $2.23
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) $1.10 $0.780
Suncor Energy (SU) $0.630 $0.810
Thursday
Apache Corp (APA) $2.01 $2.07
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $0.400 $0.060
ConocoPhillips (COP) $1.28 $1.22
CVR Energy Inc (CVI) $1.62 $2.52
Enbridge Inc (ENB) $0.380 $0.360
Eni Spa (E) $0.450 $0.970
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) $1.90 $1.80
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) $0.140 $0.100
Southwestern Energy (SWN) $0.510 $0.260
Tesoro Corp (TSO) $1.46 $2.87
Walter Energy (WLT) $0.48 $0.430
Friday
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL) $0.410 $0.360
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Monday Consensus EPS One year ago actual
Anadarko Petroleum (APC) $0.880 $0.850
Superior Energy Services (SPN) $0.480 $0.830
Tuesday
Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP) $0.220 $0.230
Ensco (ESV) $1.50 $1.41
Holly Energy Partners (HEP) $0.300 $0.320
National Oilwell Varco (NOV) $1.33 $1.46
Occidental Pete Corp (OXY) $1.63 $1.64
Wednesday
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) $1.34 $0.790
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO) $0.060 $0.12
Hess Corp (HES) $1.39 $1.72
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR) $1.54 $1.52
Phillips 66 (PSX) $1.94 $2.23
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) $1.10 $0.780
Suncor Energy (SU) $0.630 $0.810
Thursday
Apache Corp (APA) $2.01 $2.07
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $0.400 $0.060
ConocoPhillips (COP) $1.28 $1.22
CVR Energy Inc (CVI) $1.62 $2.52
Enbridge Inc (ENB) $0.380 $0.360
Eni Spa (E) $0.450 $0.970
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) $1.90 $1.80
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) $0.140 $0.100
Southwestern Energy (SWN) $0.510 $0.260
Tesoro Corp (TSO) $1.46 $2.87
Walter Energy (WLT) $0.48 $0.430
Friday
Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL) $0.410 $0.360
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Saturday, July 27, 2013
Have the crude oil bears taken the clear advantage?
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The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12.
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August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.
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August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.
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Friday, July 26, 2013
Is this a buy signal in coffee? JO
This week let's take a look at the December Coffee futures chart.
We use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell the trend when trading futures and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle to time the trade. December Coffee is on a weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle and a daily red MarketClub Trade Triangle which is just exactly the way we want the Triangles to line up for a buy setup.
If December Coffee trades higher from here and puts in a daily green MarketClub Trade Triangle that is the place to go long because the weekly and daily Trade Triangles will then both be pointing up. If a long trade does happen in Coffee, then the stop if wrong is if Coffee trades lower and puts in a red daily Trade Triangle.
This is a great way to trade because we are getting long with the trend and will catch all the big trending moves when they happen, while cutting our loses short if the trade doesn't move our way. If Coffee continues lower from here and puts in a red weekly Trade Triangle then the long trade is off, which is fine, as we are following what the market is telling us, and lower prices from here would cancel the current long trade setup.
Coffee is a Chart to Watch right now, because a big move higher from here could be about to happen.
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Thursday, July 25, 2013
Bears taking charge....Crude oil bulls struggle to trade above 20 day moving average
September crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.43. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.668 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.
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EIA: By 2040 world energy consumption will rise by 56%
World energy consumption will rise 56 percent in the next three decades, driven by growth in the developing world, noted The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its International Energy Outlook 2013 report Thursday. China and India’s rising prosperity is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand, noted EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski in a press conference call.
“These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040. This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.” Energy demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2040, up from 524 quadrillion Btus. By 2040, China’s energy use will double the United States’, according to EIA estimates.
One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.
Additionally, renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption with each increasing by 2.5 percent per year. But fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal will continue to supply almost 80 percent of the world’s energy through 2040, noted Sieminski.
Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in EIA’s outlook, and will continue to dominate the landscape, increasing by 1.7 percent per year. Swelling supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide gas use with non OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East and the United States accounting for the largest increases in natural gas production.
The explosion in supply from unconventional sources will underpin growth of natural gas demand, while high oil prices will encourage countries to focus on liquid fuels “when feasible”, the report stated.
The EIA’s July short term energy outlook projected benchmark Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in 2013 and $100 in 2014.The report projects that prices will increase long term with the world oil price reaching $106 a barrel in 2020 and $163 in 2040 in the Reference case.
With more than 10 years of journalism experience, Robin Dupre specializes in the offshore sector of the oil and gas industry. Email Robin at rdupre@rigzone.com.
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Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Statoil Reports 2013 Second Quarter Results STO
"Our financial results were impacted by lower prices for liquids and gas and weak trading results. However, we have maintained good cost control and delivered strong earnings, particularly from our international portfolio," says Lund.
In the quarter, Statoil ramped up several fields. The company continues to have a high activity level in projects on the Norwegian continental shelf, with major field developments ongoing such as Gudrun, Åsgard subsea compression and Valemon.
"The activity level on new field developments is high. We are executing our projects according to plan," says Lund.
Statoil continued its exploration progress with five discoveries in the quarter. The company has accessed attractive exploration acreage in Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Tanzania and Australia, further strengthening its position for profitable long term growth.
Second quarter results 2013
Statoil's net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion compared to NOK 62.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings [5] were NOK 38.0 billion, compared to NOK 45.8 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings after tax [5] were NOK 11.3 billion, compared to NOK 11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Net income was NOK 4.3 billion compared to NOK 26.6 billion in the second quarter of 2012.
Key events since first quarter 2013:
Revitalising Statoil's legacy position on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) by progressing new projects as planned, including Gudrun, Åsgard subsea gas compression, Valemon and Aasta Hansteen. Two category- J rigs acquired by the licence partners of Gullfaks and Oseberg Area Unit to increase recovery and extend field life. Johan Castberg project postponed for review, due to updated project estimates and pending clarification in the fiscal framework.
Accessing attractive acreage in the Barents Sea, Brazil, Tanzania, Russia, Caspian and Australia. Oil discoveries announced offshore Newfoundland in Canada and in the Grane area in Norway. Important Johan Sverdrup appraisal completed, confirming the extent and characteristics of the reservoir.
Stepping up our activity in unconventional resources by assuming operatorship for all activities in the eastern part of our Eagle Ford asset in Texas. Statoil now has operational activities in all onshore assets in the US (Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford).
Building offshore clusters by sanctioning the Julia and Heidelberg developments in the Gulf of Mexico.
Creating value from a superior gas position: The Shah Deniz consortium announced that it has selected the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to deliver gas from the Shah Deniz Stage 2 project.
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Commodities Market Summary for Wednesday Evening
September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.29 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.79. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25.
August Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.672 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews last Thursday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.508. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.
August gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday consolidating some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.60 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.70. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.
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EIA: Underground Natural Gas Working Storage Capacity
* Demonstrated maximum volume increased 1.8 percent to 4,265 billion cubic feet (Bcf)
* Design capacity increased 2.0 percent to 4,575 Bcf
Maximum demonstrated working gas volume is an operational measure of the highest level of working gas reported at each storage facility at any time over the previous five years, according to EIA's monthly survey of storage operators. Working gas is the volume of natural gas in an underground natural gas facility available to be withdrawn, not including base gas.
The maximum demonstrated working gas volume is a practical measure of full storage. Filling storage, which requires compressors to inject the gas into the storage facility, becomes more difficult and expensive as storage volume nears its maximum and pressures inside the facility increase.
That's why the demonstrated maximum is generally less than the design capacity, averaging 93% over the past two measurement periods (see Table 1), and why any given week's storage inventory is generally less than the demonstrated maximum. The maximum demonstrated volume provides guidance to operators and market analysts on the economics of filling the system.
Last October, for example, when working gas in storage reached a record-high of 3,930 Bcf, a simple calculation using the then current maximum demonstrated volume (4,188 Bcf) showed storage to be 94% full.
Read the entire EIA Report
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Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Tuesday's Trading Gives Crude Oil Bulls Some Hope
September crude oil closed higher [107.38] on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75.
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Monday, July 22, 2013
Free Replay of "How to use Fibonacci Analysis in your Trading" with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden
In this Free webinar replay Carolyn Boroden and John Carter will discuss:
* How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones
* The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios
* The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones
* How you can identify what markets to trade and when
* The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs
........ and much more
Simply fill out this simple registration form and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.
See you on Tuesday!
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
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Halliburton Announces Second Quarter Income and Earnings HAL
Halliburton's total revenue in the second quarter of 2013 was a company record of $7.3 billion, compared to $7.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. Operating income was $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2013, compared to operating income of $902 million in the first quarter of 2013, adjusted for the Macondo charge. For the first quarter of 2013, reported loss from continuing operations was $13 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, and reported operating loss was $98 million.
“I am pleased with our second quarter results, as total company revenue of $7.3 billion was a record quarter for Halliburton,” commented Dave Lesar, chairman, president and chief executive officer.
“Looking at our product lines, Baroid, Cementing, Completion Tools, Multi-Chem, and Testing set quarterly revenue records, while Baroid, Testing, and Artificial Lift all set quarterly operating income records.
“Relative to our primary competitors, we have delivered leading year-over-year international revenue growth for five consecutive quarters. Eastern Hemisphere operations grew revenue 11% sequentially, resulting from record revenues in both of our regions, and operating income was up 23%.
“Middle East / Asia, our fastest growing market, improved revenue 12% and operating income 17% sequentially. This across the board growth was led by higher stimulation, wireline, and fluids activity in Malaysia, and improved sales in China.
Read the entire Halliburton earnings report
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Friday, July 19, 2013
18.23% Return Produced During July Option Expiration Cycle
As we move through the July monthly option expiration which will
occur on July 19, 2013 at the close of business we can look back at the
expiration cycle that was. The end of the June monthly option expiration
nearly marked the recent market lows. Since the beginning of the July
expiration cycle we have seen the S&P 500 Index charge higher.
The recent performance in the Options Trading Signals portfolio has charged higher as well. There were 4 trades that were closed during the July expiration cycle. The 4 trades that were closed had a total gross gain of $169 per spread. The total risk assumed in the 4 closed trades was $927. Thus, the four trades produced a gross return on maximum risk of 18.23%.
A trader that risked roughly $2,500 per spread would have had a gross gain of $1,951 for the month of July. The table below demonstrates the trades that were closed during this expiration cycle.
In full disclosure, there were three trades that were rolled forward as price action did not accommodate trade expectations. However, the overall results of the OTS Portfolio since the beginning of the June expiration cycle have been outstanding. The full trade performance is shown below based on actual trading results from the portfolio.
Since the beginning of the June monthly option expiration cycle, the Portfolio has closed 15 total trades. In that time frame only 1 trade has produced a loss and that trade essentially was breakeven overall. The total recent trading results speak for themselves.
Since inception, the OTS Portfolio has taken 171 trades publicly that have been opened and closed. Of the 171 trades executed, 125 trades have produced gains. This equates to over a 73% success rate for all trades that have been opened and closed for the OTS Portfolio since late 2010. It is not a coincidence that the typical probability of success that I focus on for the service is between 60% – 80% probability at the time of trade entry.
Overall, the OTS Portfolio continues to generate strong trading returns while providing members with an opportunity to look over a professional trader’s shoulder to watch how trades are evaluated and when they are taken and why.
The OTS portfolio strategy is focused on a mathematical approach to trading options that gives traders a probability based edge. No more red and green arrows, no more charts with 500 indicators, and no more confusion. The system used is simple and has proven that strong trading results are possible when simple discipline is applied.
If you are looking for a mathematical and statistical based approach to trading, Options Trading Signals service may be a perfect fit to improve your option trading results.
Click here to give Options Trading Signals service a try today!
The recent performance in the Options Trading Signals portfolio has charged higher as well. There were 4 trades that were closed during the July expiration cycle. The 4 trades that were closed had a total gross gain of $169 per spread. The total risk assumed in the 4 closed trades was $927. Thus, the four trades produced a gross return on maximum risk of 18.23%.
A trader that risked roughly $2,500 per spread would have had a gross gain of $1,951 for the month of July. The table below demonstrates the trades that were closed during this expiration cycle.
In full disclosure, there were three trades that were rolled forward as price action did not accommodate trade expectations. However, the overall results of the OTS Portfolio since the beginning of the June expiration cycle have been outstanding. The full trade performance is shown below based on actual trading results from the portfolio.
Since the beginning of the June monthly option expiration cycle, the Portfolio has closed 15 total trades. In that time frame only 1 trade has produced a loss and that trade essentially was breakeven overall. The total recent trading results speak for themselves.
Since inception, the OTS Portfolio has taken 171 trades publicly that have been opened and closed. Of the 171 trades executed, 125 trades have produced gains. This equates to over a 73% success rate for all trades that have been opened and closed for the OTS Portfolio since late 2010. It is not a coincidence that the typical probability of success that I focus on for the service is between 60% – 80% probability at the time of trade entry.
Overall, the OTS Portfolio continues to generate strong trading returns while providing members with an opportunity to look over a professional trader’s shoulder to watch how trades are evaluated and when they are taken and why.
The OTS portfolio strategy is focused on a mathematical approach to trading options that gives traders a probability based edge. No more red and green arrows, no more charts with 500 indicators, and no more confusion. The system used is simple and has proven that strong trading results are possible when simple discipline is applied.
If you are looking for a mathematical and statistical based approach to trading, Options Trading Signals service may be a perfect fit to improve your option trading results.
Click here to give Options Trading Signals service a try today!
Per Wullf to succeed Fredrik Halvorsen as Chief Executive Officer at SeaDrill SDRL
Mr. Wullf has worked for Seadrill since February 2009 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to Seadrill, he held several senior positions in Maersk, most recently as Managing Director of Maersk Contractors in Norway. He has 33 years of experience in the drilling industry, including 17 years in international and offshore operations.
John Fredriksen, Chairman of the Board of Directors said, "The Board would like to express its thanks to Fredrik Halvorsen for his contribution to the Fredriksen group of companies since he joined us in 2010. His track record of managing organizational change brought a much needed skillset to our businesses, including the successful transition of Seadrill Management from Norway to London this year. Mr. Halvorsen will leave the Company at the end of July, and we wish him all the best in the technology venture.
"Since joining Seadrill in 2009, Mr. Wullf's focus on operational performance during a period of phenomenal growth has allowed Seadrill to establish a track record of delivering safe and efficient operations for its customers. He has established strong relationships and an excellent reputation among our major customers and vendors.
"In his new position, Mr. Wullf will retain a strong focus on the operational performance of the fleet, and for the time being will also retain his position as the Company's Chief Operating Officer. Some functions which have previously been a part of the CEO's responsibilities such as investor presentations, corporate transactions, and financing will to a large extent be assumed by the CFO Rune Magnus Lundetrae and the CAO Rob Hingley-Wilson. This is being done in order for Mr. Wullf to maintain maximum focus on Seadrill's expansion and operation.
"The Board, including myself, will continue to be very actively involved in the strategic development of the Company as well as monitoring the Company's operation. With his strong track record, Mr. Wullf is a natural choice for the Board to ensure a smooth transition and bring Seadrill to the next level. Together with the support of his first class team and the industry's most modern equipment, we look forward to continued success and growth."
Seadrill has a versatile fleet comprising of 62 units, including newbuilds under construction. The fleet operates across five continents supported by over 7,500 employees worldwide.
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Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder said, “KMP had a strong second quarter as our stable and diversified assets continued to grow and produce incremental cash flow. Our five business segments produced approximately $1.337 billion in segment earnings before DD&A and certain items, up 39 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Growth was spearheaded by the drop downs from Kinder Morgan, Inc. associated with its acquisition of El Paso Corporation last year, contributions from the midstream assets we recently acquired in the Copano Energy transaction, strong oil production in our CO2 segment and good results at our Products Pipelines business.
Looking forward, we see exceptional growth opportunities across all of our business segments, as there is a need to build additional midstream infrastructure to move or store oil, gas and liquids from the prolific shale plays in the United States and the oilsands in Alberta, along with increasing demand for CO2, which is used for enhanced oil recovery. We currently have identified approximately $13 billion in expansion and joint venture investments at KMP and we are pursuing customer commitments for additional projects.”
Read the entire KMP earnings report.
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Tuesday, July 16, 2013
Free Webinar: An evening with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est
For years Carolyn Boroden has been using and teaching fund managers Fibonacci based market geometry and symmetry that provides the edge needed to succeed in choosing your entry and exits points for your biggest trades. And you can easily use these methods whether you are trading stocks, currencies, ETFs or commodities.
In this Free webinar Carolyn and John will show us......
* How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones
* The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios
* The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones
* How you can identify what markets to trade and when
* The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs .... and much more
Simply click here and fill out your email address, click submit and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.
Get your seat now for "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading"
See you on Wednesday,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader
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