Showing posts with label slv. Show all posts
Showing posts with label slv. Show all posts

Sunday, April 5, 2015

Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Coffee Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.00 this Thursday afternoon currently trading at 49.00 a barrel after closing last Friday at 40.87 basically unchanged for the trading week with very volatile trading sessions including yesterday when prices were up about $3 dollars as I’m still sitting on the sidelines in this market as the trend remains mixed and very choppy. Crude oil futures have been consolidating between $45 – $55 for the last three months after falling out of bed from around $90 a barrel to around $45 and that doesn’t surprise me as we could see sideways action for several more months to come so be patient and look at another market that’s currently trending.

If you take a look at the daily chart there’s a possible double bottom being created around the $45 level and if you are bullish this market and think prices have bottomed I would probably take a shot at today’s price level while placing my stop loss below $45 risking around $4,000 per contract plus slippage and commission, however like I stated I’m currently waiting for a true breakout to occur. Traders are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly unemployment number, however markets will be closed so the reaction will happen on Sunday night and that will send high volatility into the market as expectations are 244,000 new jobs added as a stronger economy certainly creates stronger demand for gasoline and crude oil.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

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Gold futures in the June contract are down $11 this Thursday afternoon in New York trading at 1,197 an ounce basically unchanged for the trading week as investors are awaiting tomorrow’s monthly appointment number which should send high volatility into this market as prices have rallied about $60 over the last three weeks as profit-taking ensued in today’s trading action. Gold futures are trading above their 20 day but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as tomorrows trade should be very interesting.

Estimates are around 244,000 new jobs added so any number higher than that will probably send gold prices sharply lower as that might in turn tell the Federal Reserve that interest rates might have to be raised sooner rather than later. The next major resistance in gold prices is at 1,220 as that’s the true breakout to the upside in my opinion, however the chart structure remains poor at the current time so wait for a tighter trading range to develop allowing you to place your stop loss minimizing risk as much as possible and try to stick with trades that are trending as this market remains very choppy so avoid gold at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 17.07 an ounce while currently trading at 16.85 on this holiday shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday tomorrow the markets will be closed finishing down around 20 cents for the trading week still hovering near a 6 week high. Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I have been sitting on the sidelines in this market as the chart structure is poor at the current time, however if you are bullish silver prices and think prices have bottomed my recommendation would be to buy at today’s price while placing your stop loss at the 10 day low which currently stands at 16.47 risking about $.40 or $400 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Volatility in silver and the precious metals as a whole has come back as weakness in the S&P 500 is starting to put money back into the precious metals in the short term as the U.S dollar has been consolidating their recent run up as I still see choppiness ahead in silver as I’m waiting for a better chart pattern and tighter chart structure to develop therefore allowing you to place a tighter stop loss minimizing monetary risk. TREND: HIGHER
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

Coffee futures in the May contract are currently trading up 300 points at 137.80 a pound basically finishing unchanged for the trading week as volatility remains high despite the fact that prices remain in an extremely tight trading range over the last four weeks between 130 – 145 as a breakout is looming in my opinion as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines waiting for something to develop.

If you have been following my previous blogs I have very few recommendations at the current time as many of the commodity markets are consolidating in the sideways pattern just like the coffee market as a breakout will not occur until prices break above 145 or below 130 as we start to enter the frost season in Brazil which can occur in May and June like it did in 1994 sending prices from 60 all the way up to around 260 in a matter of weeks.

In my opinion coffee prices are on the verge of a bottoming pattern and we might go sideways for quite some time so keep a close eye on this market as this sleeping giant will wake up once again. Coffee prices traded as high as 230 just 6 months ago dropping dramatically as excellent weather conditions persisted throughout the growing year in Brazil but that has already been priced into the market as volatility certainly will increase. Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent


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Saturday, March 28, 2015

Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are down $1.50 this Friday afternoon trading at 49.70 after settling last Friday at 46.57 up over $3 dollars for the trading week as prices traded as high as 52.48 in yesterday’s trade because of the fact of a possible war developing between Saudi Arabia and Yemen sending prices sharply higher.

I was recommending a short position in crude oil getting stopped out in yesterday’s trade giving back most of the profits, however the trade was still slightly profitable but disappointing as prices rallied 4 straight trading sessions before today with a possible double bottom around the 45.00 level being created. At the current time I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for another trend to develop as a true breakout to the upside will be above 55.00 and the downside breakout won’t occur until prices break the contract low around 45.00 a barrel so keep an eye on this market as the chart structure remains outstanding.

Crude oil futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside, however my exit strategy is if I’m short and prices hit a two week high against me then it’s time to move on and look at other markets that are beginning to trend as you must have an exit strategy as holding and never getting out of a position is extremely dangerous in my opinion as you must be nimble. At the current time I’m holding very few positions as I got stopped out of many positions in the last week so currently I’m only short sugar, lean hogs, and soybeans and I will be sitting on the sidelines waiting for new trends to develop.
Trend: Mixed
Chart structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,185 an ounce currently trading at 1,200 up $15 for the trading week closing higher 8 out of the last 9 trading sessions in an impressive rally which started all the way back at 1,140 peeking out in yesterday’s trade at 1,220 as Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen sending the market sharply higher as that altercation looks to stay for some time to come.

Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I’m currently sitting on the sidelines in this market as I was recommending a short position last week getting stopped out in last Fridays trade and that’s why you must have an exit strategy as the 10 day high was 1,177 as we have rallied $43 higher from that level this week with major resistance at 1,220 which is the true breakout in my opinion, and if that level is broken I would be recommending a bullish position but at this point in time I am neutral as the chart structure is poor at the current time due to the fact of the recent run up in prices.

Gold futures have been extremely choppy over the last six months and choppy markets in my opinion are very difficult to trade successfully so at this point look for another trend that is starting to develop.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday in New York at 16.88 an ounce while currently trading this Friday afternoon at 17.08 up around 20 cents for the trading week hitting a four week high and now trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the upside. I was recommending a short position in silver getting stopped out last week at the 2 week high which was around 16.20 and currently I’m sitting on the sidelines waiting for better chart structure to develop as the 10 day low is around 15.35 which is a $1.70 away as the risk is too high at the moment. Silver futures traded as high as 17.40 in yesterday’s trade on news that Saudi Arabia is sending ground troops into the country of Yemen as a possible war is at hand as the U.S dollar has also dropped about 4% from its contract high lending support to the precious metals as a whole. In my opinion I think you should wait for better chart structure to develop so be patient and keep an eye on this market as the trend may have turned to the upside but I will wait for a lower risk trade before entering.
Trend: Higher
Chart structure: Poor


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Saturday, March 21, 2015

Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the May contract are up $1.20 a barrel currently trading at 46.70 as I've been recommending a short position when prices broke out to contract lows earlier last week and if you took that trade continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.00 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure remains poor, however it will start to tighten up on a daily basis next week.

Crude oil futures rallied today because of the fact that the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up many commodity prices, however as the trend follower I continue to think lower prices are ahead so make sure you place the proper amount of contracts on risking 2% of your account balance as oversupply issues are currently keeping a lid on prices.

The precious metals, grain market, stock markets, and the energy complex were all higher today as it seems to me that we had a relief rally taking place due to the fact that of the FOMC minutes which were construed bullish as interest rates are not going higher in the short term . As a trader I believe you must follow the trend and the short term trend is to the downside so don’t let a 1 or 2 day rally bother you as you must stick to the rules and that sometimes means giving back profits.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract are higher for the 3rd consecutive trading session hitting a 2 week high as I have been recommending a short position getting stopped out in today's trade licking my wounds as I'm a little disappointed as it was all based on the FOMC minutes as they are not going to raise interest rates anytime soon pushing up many of the commodity markets especially the precious metals.

Gold futures are still trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average, however as an exit strategy when I'm short and prices hit a two week high it’s time to move on and sit on the sidelines as prices settled last Friday at 1,152 while currently trading at 1,187 up over $30 in an impressive week especially considering the fact that the NASDAQ 100 has crossed 5000 once again as everything is basically higher across the board this afternoon.

I've been recommending a short position from around 1,160 getting stopped out at 1,177 as it was a losing trade but nothing horrific but disappointing as always when you're on the wrong side of a trade, however I do think we will be sitting on the sidelines in this market for quite some time waiting for better chart structure to develop as I think prices will chop around trading off of the U.S dollar which has turned very volatile at the current time.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor

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Silver futures in the May contract are sharply higher this Friday afternoon trading up $.75 in New York hitting a four week high as I’ve been recommending a short position in silver prices getting stopped out around the 16.20 level as prices have skyrocketed off the FOMC minutes stating that they will not raise interest rates sending many commodities sharply higher on short covering alone. Silver futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average as I’m now advising clients to sit on the sidelines and wait for better chart structure to develop as prices settled last Friday at 15.50 finishing up almost $1.40 for the trading week having one of its best weeks in months as the U.S dollar is down 160 points pushing up the precious metals in today’s action.

I’ve been recommending a short position from around the 15.60 level losing around $.60 on the trade or $600 per mini contract and I’m disappointed but it’s time to move on and look at another market that is currently trending as many of the commodities may have experienced a short term bounce as it looks like interest rates flat out are not going higher. The chart structure in silver at the current time is terrible as prices have skyrocketed in the last three days as volatility is high once again so look at a different market with less risk at the current time as the 15.50 breakout to the downside was false and that happens so you have to deal with it and risk as little amount of money as possible.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Poor


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Saturday, March 14, 2015

Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting new contract lows at 44.98 a barrel as I’ve been recommending a short position in yesterday trade around the $48 level & if you took that trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.40 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Prices in my opinion are headed sharply lower as prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving as prices were consolidating over the last six weeks but you’re going to have to be patient in this trade as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another five days so continue to play this to the downside taking advantage of any rallies maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The U.S dollar is sharply higher again this week pushing many of the commodity markets including the S&P 500 lower which has been very resilient until recently as there seems to be a worldwide slowdown occurring as the commodity markets all look weak so continue to trade with the trend as I don’t know how low prices can go but I do think in my opinion prices are headed lower as whenever a commodity makes a new contract low that’s not a good sign if you are in a bullish position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled in New York last Friday at $1,164 an ounce while currently trading at 1,156 down about 8 dollars for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile trading session still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position as of last Friday and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,214 risking around $2,400 per mini contract, however the chart structure will start to improve dramatically next week lowering the stop loss.

The problem with gold at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is sharply higher this week once again continuing to put pressure on the commodity markets as I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon as the next level of support is 1,130 – 1,140 & if that level is broken you would have to think that gold prices will trade below 1,100 and if you look at platinum prices they are hitting another contract low so I think gold will catch up to platinum to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as well with crude oil prices retesting contract lows once again also pressuring the precious metals as the trend is your friend and I continue to think that there is no reason to own gold at this time so continue to sell as well as maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.80 while currently trading in New York at 15.50 down about $.30 for the trading week hitting a four month low while breaking critical support at 15.55 an ounce as I’m recommending a short position in this market & if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was lowered to 16.58 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will tighten up considerably next week.

I sound like a broken record as I’m pessimistic the entire commodity market due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 12 year high once again as I do think prices can retest the December 1st 2014 low of 14.70 an ounce as I see no reason to own the precious metals at this time especially with higher interest rates on the horizon and an incredibly strong U.S dollar both very pessimistic fundamental indicator towards the precious metals and silver prices as a whole.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if 14.70 is broken you can see a freefall in prices possibly down around the 12.50 level in the next 6 to 8 weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving


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Thursday, April 17, 2014

How to Momentum Trade Gold & Silver Stocks

Back on April 9th I posted a short tutorial on how to momentum trade gold along with my short term gold forecast.

Today I wanted to do a follow up video for my gold market traders for three reasons:


1. I had lots of great feedback from traders taking advantage of what I showed to profit in the past week.
2. To show you how and why this strategy works better with gold stocks and silver stocks.
3. To provide my short term gold forecast so you are on the right side of the market for next week.
4. Also you should see my major long term Gold Forecast



 

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See you in the markets!
Chris Vermeulen


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Monday, March 31, 2014

Inflation Is Coming, What to Do NOW

By Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst

We’ve all heard of the inflationary horrors so many countries have lived through in the past. Third world countries, developing nations, and advanced economies alike—no country in history has escaped the debilitating fallout of unrepentant currency abuse. And we expect the same fallout to impact the U.S., the EU, Japan, China—all of today’s countries that have turned to the printing press as a solution to their economic woes.


Now, it seems obvious to us that the way to protect one’s self against high inflation is to hold one’s wealth in gold… But did citizens in countries that have experienced high or hyperinflation turn to gold in response? Gold enthusiasts may assume so, but what does the data actually show?

Well, Casey Metals Team researcher Alena Mikhan dug up the data. Here’s a country-by-country analysis…...

Brazil

Investment demand for gold grew before Brazil’s debt crisis and economic stagnation of the 1980s. However, it really took off in the late ‘80s, when already-high inflation (100-150% annually) picked up steam and hit unsustainable levels in 1989.

Year Inflation Investment
demand
(tonnes)
1986 167.8% 20.0
1987 218.5% 42.8
1988 554.2% 61.5
1989 1,972%* 86.5
1990 116.2%** -74
Source: The International Gold Trade by Tony Warwick-Ching, 1993; inflation.eu
*Measured from December to December
**Year-end rate

During this period, investment demand for bullion skyrocketed 333%, from 20 tonnes in 1976 to 86.5 tonnes in 1989.

And notice what happened to demand when inflation began to reverse. Substantial liquidations, showing demand’s direct link to inflation.

Indonesia

Indonesia was hit by a severe economic crisis in 1998. The average inflation rate spiked to 58% that year.

Year Inflation Investment
demand (t)
1997 6.2% 11.5
1998 58.0% 22.5
1999 24.0% 11.0
2000 3.7% 8.5
Sources: World Gold Council, inflation.eu

Gold demand doubled as inflation surged. It’s worth pointing out that investment demand in 1997 was already at a record high.

Also, total demand in 1999 reached 120.8 tonnes (not just demand directly attributable to investment), 18% more than in pre-crisis 1997. But overall, once inflation cooled, so again did gold demand.

India

While India has a traditional love of gold, its numbers also demonstrate a direct link between demand and rising inflation. The average inflation rate in 1998 climbed to 13%, and you can see how Indians responded with total consumer demand. (Specifically investment demand data, as distinct from broader consumer demand data, is not available for all countries.)

Year Inflation Consumer
demand* (t)
1996 8.9% 507
1997 7.2% 688
1998 13.1% 774
1999 4.8% 730
Sources: World Gold Council, inflation.eu
*Includes net retail investment and jewelry

Gold demand hit a record of 774.4 tonnes, 13% above the record set just a year earlier. In fairness, we’ll point out that gold consumption was also growing due to a liberalization of gold import rules at the end of 1997.

When inflation cooled, the same pattern of falling gold demand emerged.

Egypt, Vietnam, United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Here are three countries from the same time frame last decade. Like India, we included jewelry demand since that’s how many consumers in these countries buy their gold.

Year Egypt Vietnam UAE
Inflation Consumer
demand (t)
Inflation Consumer
demand (t)
Inflation Consumer
demand (t)
2006 6.5% 60.5 7.5% 86.1 10% 96.0
2007 9.5% 68.5 8.3% 77.5 14% 107.3
2008 18.3% 76.8 24.4% 115.8 20% 109.5
2009 11.9% 58.4 7.0% 73.3 1.6% 73.9
Sources: World Gold Council, indexmundi.com

Egypt saw inflation triple from 2006 to 2008, and you can see consumer demand for bullion grew as well. Even more impressive is what the table doesn’t show: Investment demand grew 247% in 1998 over the year before. Overall tonnage was relatively modest, though, from 0.7 to 2.5 tonnes.

Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates saw similar patterns. Gold consumption increased when inflation peaked in 2008. Again, it was investment demand that saw the biggest increases. It grew 71% in Vietnam, and 27% in the United Arab Emirates.

And when inflation subsided? You guessed it: Demand fell.

Japan

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to kill deflation pushed Japan’s consumer price inflation index to 1.2% last year—still low, but it had been flat or falling for almost two decades, including 2012.

Year Inflation Consumer
demand (t)
2012 -0.1% 6.6
2013 1.2% 21.3


In response, demand for gold coins, bars, and jewelry jumped threefold in the Land of the Rising Sun.

One of the biggest investment sectors that saw increased demand, interestingly, was in pension funds.

Belarus

Unlike many of the nations above, citizens from this country of the former Soviet Union do not have a deep-rooted tradition for gold. However, in 2011, the Belarusian ruble experienced a near threefold depreciation vs. the U.S. dollar. As usual, people bought dollars and euros—but in a new trend, turned to gold as well.

We don’t have access to all the data used in the tables above, but we have firsthand information from people in the country. In the first quarter of 2011, just when it became clear inflation would be severe, gold bar sales increased five times compared to the same period a year earlier. In March alone that year, 471.5 kg of gold (15,158 ounces) were purchased by this small country, which equaled 30% of total gold sales, from just one year earlier. Silver and platinum bullion sales grew noticeably as well.

The “gold rush” didn’t live long, however, as the central bank took measures to curb demand.

Argentina

Argentina’s annual inflation rate topped 26% in March last year, which, according to Bloomberg, made residents “desperate for gold.” Specific data is hard to come by because only one bank in the country trades gold, but everything we read had the same conclusion: Argentines bought more gold last year than ever before.

At one point, one bank, Banco Ciudad, even tried to buy gold directly from mining companies because it couldn’t keep up with demand. Some analysts report that demand has continued this year but that it has shown up in gold stocks.

What to Do—NOW

History clearly shows there is a direct link between inflation and gold demand. When inflation jumps, or even when inflation expectations rise, investors turn to gold in greater numbers. And when gold demand rises, so does its price—you can guess what happens to gold stocks.

With the amount of money the developed countries continue to print, high to hyperinflation is virtually inevitable. We cannot afford to believe in free lunches.

The conclusion is inescapable: One must buy gold (and silver) now, before the masses rush in. The upcoming inflationary storm will encompass most of the globe, so the amount of demand could push prices far higher than many think—and further, make bullion scarce.

Your neighbors will soon be buying. We suggest beating them to the punch.

Remember, gold speaks every language, is highly liquid anywhere in the world, and is a proven store of wealth over thousands of years.

But what to buy? Where? How?

We can help. With a subscription to our monthly newsletter, BIG GOLD, you’ll get the Bullion Buyers Guide, which lists the most trustworthy dealers, thoroughly vetted by the Metals team, as well as the top medium- and large-cap gold and silver producers, royalty companies, and funds.

Normally I’d suggest that you try BIG GOLD risk free for 3 months, but right now, I can offer you something even better: ALL EIGHT of Casey’s monthly newsletters for one low price, at a huge 55% discount.

It’s called the Casey OnePass and lets you profit from the huge variety of investment opportunities we here at Casey Research are seeing in our respective sectors right now—from precious metals to energy, technology, big-picture trend investing, and income investing.

Click here to find out more. But hurry—the "Casey OnePass" offer expires this Friday, April 4.

The article Inflation Is Coming, What to Do NOW was originally published at Casey Research



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Monday, March 24, 2014

Why Junior Gold Mining Stocks Are Our Favorite Speculations

By Laurynas Vegys, Research Analyst

Despite last week’s pullback, the precious metals market is off to an impressive start in 2014. Gold is up 10.6%, silver 4.3%, and the PHLX Gold/Silver (XAU) 17.1%. Gold, in particular, had a great February, rising above $1,300 for the first time since November 7, 2013. This has led to some very handsome gains in our Casey International Speculator portfolio, with a few of our recommendations already logging triple digit gains from their recent bottoms.

Why Junior Gold Mining Stocks Are Our Favorite Speculations


One of Doug Casey’s mantras is that one should buy gold for prudence, and gold stocks for profit. These are very different kinds of asset deployment. In other words, don’t think of gold as an investment, but as wealth protection. It’s the only highly liquid financial asset that is not simultaneously someone else’s obligation; it’s value you can liquidate and use to secure your needs. Possessing it is prudent.

Gold stocks are for speculation because they offer leverage to gold. This is actually true of all mining stocks, but the phenomenon is especially strong in the highly volatile precious metals. Most typical “be happy you beat inflation” returns simply can’t hold a candle to stocks that achieved 10 bagger status (1,000% gains). In previous bubbles—some even generated 100 fold returns. And we may see such returns again.

It’s Not Too Late to Make a Fortune

Here’s a look at our top three year to date gainers.


What’s especially remarkable is that all three of these stocks shot up much more than gold itself, on essentially no company specific news. This is dramatic proof of just how much leverage the right mining stocks can offer to movements in the underlying commodity—gold, in this case. Two of the stocks above are on our list of potential 10 baggers, by the way.

So have you missed the boat? Is it too late to buy?


Looking at the chart, two bullish factors jump out immediately:
  • Gold stocks have just now started to move up from a similar level in 2008.
  • Gold stocks remain severely undervalued compared to the gold price. A simple reversion to the mean implies a tremendous upside move.
Now consider the following data that point to a positive shift in the gold market.
  1. After 13 consecutive months of decline, GLD holdings were up over 10.5 tonnes last month. The trend is similar to other ETFs.
  1. Hedge funds and other large speculators more than doubled their bets on higher gold prices this year.
  1. Increase in M&A—for example, hostile bids from Osisko and HudBay Minerals to buy big assets.
  1. Apollo, KKR, and other large private equity groups have emerged as a new class of participants in the sector.
  1. Gold companies’ hedging of future production—usually a sign of insecurity among the miners—shrunk to the lowest level in 11 years.
  1. China continues to consume record amounts of gold and officially overtook India as the world’s largest buyer of gold in 2013.
  1. Large players in the gold futures market that were short have switched to being long.
  1. Central banks continue to be net buyers.
To top it off, there’s been no fallout (yet) from the unprecedented currency dilution undertaken since 2008—and we don’t believe in free lunches. The gold mania train has not yet left the station, but the engine is running and the conductor has the whistle in his mouth. This means…..

Any correction ahead is a potential last-chance buying opportunity before the final mania phase of this bull cycle takes our stock to new highs, well above previous interim peaks.

In spite of the good start to 2014, most of our 10 bagger gold stocks are still on the deep discount rack. And you can get all of them with a risk free, 3 month trial subscription to our monthly advisory focused on junior mining stocks, the Casey International Speculator.

If you sign up today, you can still get instant access to two special reports detailing which stocks are most likely to gain big this year: Louis James’ 10 Bagger List for 2014 and 7 Must Own Stocks for 2014.
Test drive the International Speculator for 3 months with a full money back guarantee, and if it’s not everything you expected, just cancel for a prompt, courteous refund of every penny you paid.

Click Here to Get Started Now

I hope you will take advantage of this opportunity in front of us—while shares are still relatively cheap.
The article Junior Mining Stocks to Beat Previous Highs was originally published at Casey Research


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Sunday, February 2, 2014

Mike Seery on Gold, Silver, Sugar and Coffee Futures

It's time to check in with our trading partner Mike Seery to get his take on where our favorite commodities are headed. Say what you want about the current pull back in the indexes we are glad to see the volatility, we finally have us a real market.

Gold Futures

Gold futures finished the week at 1,240 still continuing their choppy trade as investors sold off the precious metal later in the week despite the fact that the S&P 500 is having huge volatility which generally spooks investors into buying gold but the precious metal closed very poorly in my opinion. I have a hard time believing that gold is going to start to rally anytime soon as it might be stuck in the mud and could trade choppy for quite some time. The U.S dollar hit a 7 week high today which is bearish gold prices as the printing press here in the United States is starting to stop which is creating a higher U.S dollar versus the foreign currencies and that is bearish commodity prices in general. I’m recommending investors to sit on the sideline in the gold market at this time as there really is no trend as you have to look for a market that is trending up or down because if you screw around with markets that go up and down and have no trend with constant choppiness that will kill you in the long run. The trend in gold continues sideways and chart structure is very poor.

Gold Stocks are about to create a new class of Millionaires

Silver Futures

Silver futures continued their 9 week consolidation finishing at 19.12 an ounce in the March contract right near contract lows of 18.72 & if that level is broken you have to think prices would head lower in the short term. The emerging market crisis over the last couple of weeks I think is hurting silver prices here in the short term but this too will blow over, as if your long term investor I still think silver prices look attractive as eventually inflation will come back into this market it’s just a matter of when. Silver futures are trading below their 20 & 100 day moving average and the longer the consolidation in my opinion the stronger the move will be when prices truly break out while the breakout to the upside is at 20.67 & the breakout to the downside is 18.72 as prices were unable to rally despite the fact that there was panic selling in the S&P 500 as money poured out of the stock market into the bond market but not into the precious metals which tells me the market still currently looks weak. Silver trend remains to the down side, chart structure is excellent.

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Sugar Futures

Sugar futures in the March contract finished sharply higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session closing at 15.55 now trading above its 20 day but still below its 100 day moving average as I’ve been recommending a short position in sugar for quite some time getting stopped out as today as prices hit the 10 day high as funds liquidated huge short positions so sit on the sidelines and wait and see what develops. I’m a technical trader and I must have some exit strategies in place and my exit strategy is placing my stop at the 10 day high but you can have something different possibly a 15 day high or 7 day high so create some type of exit strategy for your personal account still maintaining the proper risk management as I do think prices are still headed lower but I can’t recommend a short position at this time as the trend has now turned neutral here in the short term. If you’re not a trend follower I would have to believe that you have to continue to sell sugar as supplies are too high as there are some dry areas in Brazil which is causing some concern possibly cutting some crop production, however I think today was massive short covering as the funds covered in today’s trading session. The trend for sugar remains mixed but the chart structure is excellent.

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Coffee Futures

Coffee futures exploded to the upside for the 3rd consecutive trading day hitting 5 month highs at 125.20 a pound up over 1100 points for the week as investors are pouring in thinking that the long term bottom in coffee has finally been hit in the last several months. Coffee is trading above its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend in the short term is higher but at this point this market has absolutely terrible chart structure so I have a hard time buying it because the 10 day low is at 114 risking around $4,400 per contract so I’m recommending to sit on the sidelines and wait for some better chart structure to develop as I do think there will be profit taking eventually. The U.S dollar hit a 7 week high today and I believe that eventually could start to pressure commodity prices especially with the emerging markets now having difficulties but the trend in some markets have been heading higher despite that headwind and coffee prices historically are still relatively cheap. Keep an eye on this market as the real volatility will start in the month of May when we begin frost season down in Brazil but it does look to me that coffee is in a bottoming process. While the coffee trend still appears to be higher the chart structure is well....awful.

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Friday, November 29, 2013

Silver, Gold & Miners ETF Trading Strategy – Part II

It’s been over a week since our trading partner Chris Vermeulens last gold & silver report which he took a lot of heat because of his bearish outlook. Last Friday’s closing price has this sector trading precariously close to a major sell off if it’s not already started.

On a percentage bases Chris feels precious metals mining stocks as whole will be selling at a sharp discount in another week or three. ETF funds like the GDX, GDXJ and SIL have the most downside potential. The amount of emails he received from followers of those who have been buying more precious metals and gold stocks as price continues to fall was mind blowing.

Precious metals continued to fall on Monday and Tuesday of this week and selling volume should spike as protective stops will be getting run and the individuals who are underwater with a large percentage of their portfolio in the precious metals sector could start getting margin calls and cause another washout, spike low similar to what we saw in 2008.

Here is Chris' updated ETF Trading Charts with Friday’s closing prices showing technical breakdowns across the board....Read "Silver, Gold & Miners ETF Trading Strategy – Part II"



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Monday, November 18, 2013

Silver, Gold & Miners About To Sell Off Again

A couple weeks ago I posted these same charts talking about the pending breakout (in either direction) with silver, gold and mining stocks. Fast forwarding to this week its clear this sector continues its struggle to rally. Key support levels are now being tested and if these levels fail prepare for a sharp correction with mining stocks showing the most downside potential of roughly 25% for the GDX ETF trading fund.

Let’s take a quick look at what is going on.

Gold Trading Chart:
The chart of gold shows price being wedge into the apex of the down sloping resistance trend line and the rising support trendline. Gold was trading below this level but has since bounced. But if gold closes the week below this line in the sand the price could start to fall quickly and test the $1200 per ounce within a week or two.

gold18


Silver Trading Chart:
Silver is under performing gold and trading below its support level currently. If silver does not recover by Friday’s closing bell then things could get ugly for a few weeks as investors start to exit their positions. That being said, I need to point out that silver is more of a wild card when using trend lines like this. Both gold and gold miners should be confirming this breakdown in silver if it is the real deal.

silver18


Gold Mining Stocks ETF:
The chart of gold miners I like the most. I like it because it’s pointing to lower prices, roughly 25% lower if the breakdown takes place. Gold mining stocks could be a fantastic long term investment if we see the $17.50 level reached on this GDX etf.

gdx18

Last week I talked about ETF trading strategies and the big picture on gold, silver, miners and bonds. They look to be nearing a major bottom and once they do bottom it should be a great buying opportunity for specific stocks or the entire sector.

The next few weeks are going to be crucial for precious metals and we will keep an eye on them as this bottom unfolds.  

Get more reports like this here: www.Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen


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Friday, July 5, 2013

Weekly Precious Metals Market Recap with Mike Seery

It's time to check in with our trading partner Mike Seery on where he sees precious metals heading for the end of the 1st week of trading in July.

The precious metals continue their downturn as higher interest rates are pressuring gold down $37 an ounce at 12.14 which is a new closing low and as I’ve been telling people through many previous blogs to keep selling the precious metals as there really is no reason to own gold since deflation is in the air not inflation.

Silver futures are down $.95 in the July contract at 18.75 looking to retest recent lows with the possibility of prices going down to the $15 level here in the next couple of weeks as the tide has turned in the commodity market.

I have been recommending a short copper position for quite some time as copper was absolutely pummeled today down 1100 points at 3.06 a pound placing a stop above the 10 day high which is 3.17 and I do believe copper prices are headed steadily lower possibly down to 2.50 in the next 4 to 6 weeks as demand has weakened tremendously in China and higher interest rates will put the kibosh on copper prices in my opinion.

All of the precious metals are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average and I believe that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar is the place to park money due to the fact that interest rates are much higher here than overseas which will continue to put pressure on the precious metals in my opinion.

Precious metals trend....lower, Chart structure.....excellent.

Here's more commodity news [including sugar, grains, orange juice, cotton, coffee] from Mike for the first week of July....Just click here.



Sunday, June 30, 2013

Precious Metals Futures Weekly Update

The precious metals rallied on Friday afternoon but have been absolutely crushed this week with gold settling at 1,226 an ounce up around $15, however prices hit a new 3 year low this week trading as low as 1,179 and as I’ve been recommending in many previous blogs to be short the precious metals sector but at this point in time with extreme volatility & very poor chart structure I’m recommending to be taking profits and sit on the sidelines.

Silver futures finished up $.95 today at 19.49 in the July contract and as I stated in previous blogs I thought silver could hit the $18 level and it did trade as low as 18.18 in the early session today, however I still believe prices are headed lower and I would not be bullish the precious metals at this time.

Copper futures which I’ve been recommending short positions across the board finished at 3.0560 a pound unchanged for the trading day but I do believe prices are headed substantially lower from these levels as higher interest rates are keeping a lid on precious metals prices so look for copper prices to possibly hit 2.50 in the next month or so.

The trends have really been strong in recent weeks and if you been listening to any of my recommendations you have been doing extremely well and I do believe that commodity prices are still headed lower so take advantage of it by selling the futures contract or by buying bear put spreads limiting your risk to what the spread premium costs.

Trend: Lower – Chart structure: Terrible

Posted courtesy of our trading partner Mike Seery

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Thursday, June 6, 2013

Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners Signals

It has been a very long couple of years for the precious metal bugs. The price of gold, silver and their related mining stocks have bucked the broad market up trend and instead have been sinking to the bottom in terms of performance.

Earlier this week I posted a detailed report on the broad stock market and how it looks as though it‘s uptrend will be coming to an end sooner than later. The good news is that precious metals have the exact flip side of that outlook. They appear to be bottoming as they churn at support zones.

While metals and miners remain in a down trend it is important to recognize and prepare for a reversal in the coming weeks or months. Let’s take a look at the charts for a visual of where price is currently trading along with my analysis overlaid.

Weekly Price of Gold Futures

Gold has been under heavy selling pressure this year and it still may not be over. The technical patterns on the chart show continued weakness down to the $1300USD per once which would cleanse the market of remaining long positions before price rockets towards $1600+ per ounce.

There is a second major support zone drawn on the chart which is a worst case scenario. But this would likely on happen if US equities start another major leg higher and rally through the summer.

PriceOfGold


Weekly Price of Silver Futures

Silver is a little different than gold in terms of where it stands from a technical analysis point of view. The recent 10% dip in price which shows on the chart as a long lower candle stick wick took place on very light volume. This to me shows the majority of weak positions have been shaken out of silver. Gold has not done this yet and it typically happens before a bottom is put in.

While I figure gold will make one more minor new low, silver I feel will drift sideways to lower during until gold works the bugs out of the chart.

PriceOfSilver

Silver Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Silver miners are oversold and trading at both horizontal support and its down support trendline. Volume remains light meaning traders and investors are not that interested in them down where and it should just be a matter of time (weeks/months) before they build a basing pattern and start to rally.

SilverMiningStocksETF


Gold Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold mining stocks continue to be sold by investors with volume rising and price falls. Fear remains in control but that may not last much longer.

GOldMiningStocksETF


Gold Junior Mining Stock ETF – Weekly Chart

Gold junior miners are in the same boat with the big boys. Overall gold and gold miners are still being sold while silver and silver stocks are firming up.

GoldJuniorMiningStocksETF


Precious Metals Trading Conclusion

In the coming weeks we should see the broad stock market top out and for gold miners along with precious metals bottom. There are some decent gains to be had in this sector for the second half of the year but it will remain very dicey at best.

If selling in the broad market becomes intense and triggers a full blown bear market money will be pulled out of most investments as cash is king. Gold is likely to hold up the best in terms of percentage points but mining stocks will get sucked down along with all other stocks for a period of time. This scenario is not likely to be of any issue for a few months yet but it’s something to remember.

Chris Vermeulen


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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Gold Stocks: Its Time To Be BRAVE!

By David Banister, Chief Strategist the Market Trend Forecast.........

I used to half joke with some of my investing friends that the best time to buy stocks is during or right after a crash. Think 1987, 2000-2002, 2008-09, and now perhaps Gold Miners?? Well, before we get too far ahead of ourselves, lets examine evidence of a “Crash”: I like to use crowd behavioral, empirical, and technical evidence in combination.

1. In a recent money managers poll, virtually nobody was bullish on Gold or Gold stocks, and over 80% of those polled were bullish on the SP 500 and US stocks.

2. The percentage of Dumb Money traders (non-reportable traders) in the futures markets with short positions on Gold is at all time highs, they tend to be very long at the highs and very short at the lows.

3. The insider buying ratio of Gold Mining stocks to sellers is running over 10 to 1, the highest since October 2008 when Gold bottomed out at $685 per ounce from $1030 highs. Quoting Ted Dixon, CEO of Ink Research, “such a high level of buying interest among officers and directors within their own businesses in the resource sector has correctly foreshadowed a recovery in share prices in the past: That high point of nearly five years ago came about six weeks before the Venture market bottomed on Dec. 5, 2008…While the excitement that surrounded mining stocks as recently as two years ago has waned, experienced value investors recognize that such periods of investor neglect often give rise to the best deals” Source: Theglobeandmail.com

4. The ratio of the HUI Gold Bugs Index to the SP 500 is at multi year lows and in near crash mode on the charts. The RSI Index (Relative strength) on the weekly charts is at 10 year lows at -13.71, which is off the charts low!!

5. Most trading message boards I view at Stocktwits and others are universally bearish on Gold and Gold stocks.

6. Gold is in a wave B or Wave 5 down re-testing the 1322 lows which we have discussed here for weeks as very likely if 1470 was not taken out on the upside… this is a normal sentiment pattern and re-test.

7. Gold has been in a 21 Fibonacci month correction pattern off a 34 Fibonacci month rally from 686-1923. In August of 2011 I penned articles from 1805 right up to 1900 warning of a massive wave 3 top forming. Everyone was bullish, now it’s the complete opposite.

8. Currency debasement continues around the world with negative real interest rates. This is bullish for Gold once this correction has run its course.

9. Hulbert Digest Gold Sentiment index is at an all time low (gold newsletters at -35 sentiment readings!!)

10. Gold -Silver put to call ratios are at all time highs

I could go on and on with headlines and such, but you get the idea. This is the same type of sentiment I wrote about on the stock market on Feb 25th 2009, here is that article... and nobody on the planet was bullish.

Below is a chart showing the Bullish % index for Gold Miners, as you can see the last time we were at 0% was late 2008 when Gold had bottomed out and insiders were also buying like crazy like now:

bll

The GLD ETF chart also shows a likely re-test or slightly lower of the 1322 futures lows of April, when Insider buying hit 10 year record levels:

gld

Obviously Gold could end up going a lot lower than we think, and the Gold Mining stocks could sink further yet. But for those with a 3-6 month horizon, we expect the 21-24 month Gold correction to complete by no later than October 2013. During the next several months the opportunities to buy some miners on the cheap will potentially make some investors a lot of money in the coming few years.


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Thursday, May 9, 2013

Trading Commodities with any Size Account

So many traders shy away from trading commodities because their account balances are just to small to buy and sell oil contracts. They think the only option they have is to buy and hold the most popular ETF's like GLD, SLV or USO. But that couldn't be further from the truth. The guys at Trading Concepts have developed a system that can earn you a regular pay check trading commodities....and equities and currencies as well, no matter what size account you have.

And when we think about why you didn't enroll the last time this course was offered, the only reasons I can come up with is you're either not interested in learning how to make monthly income trading options [with any size account] or, you simply couldn't afford it.

When our trading partner Doc Severson closed OptionsMD, he received a number of inquiries from people who said they would have loved to have been a part of the mentoring program, but couldn't afford the investment.

With college tuitions, saving for retirement, increasing job loss, mounting debt, and many other concerns, Doc's always taken pride in being a part of the solution.

So in a last minute effort to help those who are struggling with getting results, but are committed to change their financial situation with options, Doc has reopened OptionsMD until midnight tonight with one big change.

You still get all the mentoring, bonuses, and the one year performance guarantee. But, now you can get all of this with a new payment plan and a much lower monthly investment.

Only open until midnight tonight..... Click to enroll today

See you in the markets,
Ray C. Parrish
The Crude Oil Trader

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Monday, May 6, 2013

How to Trade Gold, Silver & Precious Metal Miners....It's not that Difficult!

How to trade Gold and other precious metals related investments is not that complex. But you must be willing to wait for price to provide low risk entry points before getting involved. Precious metals are like any other investment in respect to trading and investing in them. There are times when you should be long, times to be in cash and times to be short (benefit from falling prices).

Since 2011 when gold and silver started another major bull market correction the best position has been to move to cash or sell/write options against your positions to protect your investment until the next trend resumes.

If you take a look at the chart below of gold you will notice that in 2008 we had a similar breakdown in price which purged the market of investors who where long gold. And if you compare the last two breakdowns they look very much the same. If price holds true then much higher prices are likely to unfold at the end of 2013.

The key here is for the price to move and hold above the major resistance line. If it can do that then we are looking at a possible breakout to $2600 – $3500 gold. With that being said gold and silver may just be starting a bear market. Depending what the price of gold does when my resistance level is touched, my outlook may change from bullish to bearish.

Also with last weeks economic numbers getting better in the USA I do have concerns that gold may be starting a bear market but we will not know for several more months yet.

LongTermWeeklyGold

How to Trade Gold Daily Technical Chart:

Major technical damage has been done to the chart of gold. This can be seen as bullish or bearish price action but until price and volume pattern unfolds which puts the odds on the bullish or bearish side I remain neutral.

LongTermGold

How to Trade Silver Daily Technical Chart:

Silver is in the same position as gold. The question is if this is a shakeout or breakdown......

LongTermSilver

How to Trade Gold Mining Stocks Monthly Chart:

Gold mining stocks broke down a couple months ago and continue to sell off. If precious metals continue to move lower then mining stocks will continue their journey down. The chart below made in February and it has in most part played out as expected. While I do not try to pick bottoms (catch falling knives) I do like to watch for them so I am prepared for a new position when the time and chart become bullish.

LongTermMiners


How to Trade Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks Conclusion:

In short, precious metals continue to be in a down trend. While they look to be trying to bottom it is important to remember that the largest moves take place in the last 10% of a trend. So we may be close to a bottom but there could be sharply lower prices yet.

The time will come when another major buy or short signal forms and when it does we will be getting involved. The exciting part is that it could be just around the corner.

If you want to keep current and take advantage of the next major move be sure to join our free newsletter here.... Gold, Silver, & Mining Stock Trade Setups



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Sunday, April 7, 2013

A Special Invitation from The Crude Oil Trader

Over the last 12 months, the price of gold bullion has fallen by about 3%. Gold stocks, however, have been devastated. Even great companies with great projects have lost 50% or more.

By some estimates, upwards of one third of all listed exploration and development stocks are now on the verge of failing. It was in the context of this disaster in gold stocks that our friends at Casey Research assembled an emergency summit of some of the top thinkers in the natural resource sector.

There were three compelling reasons for this meeting, which was videotaped and assembled into an online webinar.

1. To answer the overarching question – is the long bull market in gold and silver over?

2. To specifically discuss the dismal state of the resource stock market and what actions investors should take immediately to reduce further losses.

3. To assess whether the price action of gold stocks in the face of historic, global, central bank money printing has set the stage for explosive upside.

As panelist Bill Bonner commented during the filming, "The time to buy gold stocks is when nobody wants to buy them… when even you don't want to buy them."

With the gold share market in complete capitulation, that is very much the case today.

Downturn Millionaires, the title of this extremely timely webinar, was filmed on location at Doug Casey's La Estancia de Cafayate in scenic northwest Argentina, with video feeds to key players in Vancouver.

Featured guests included legendary resource investors Doug Casey and Rick Rule, as well as Louis James, the globe-trotting editor of the International Speculator. Tackling the macro picture for precious metals was best-selling author of Endgame, John Mauldin, as well as Bill Bonner, editor of the Diary of a Rogue Economist. Casey Research's David Galland acted as program moderator.

The webinar will go live April 8th at 2pm ET.

The webinar is free of charge. However, to ensure adequate bandwidth to accommodate all viewers, Casey Research is asking you sign up in advance by clicking the link below and registering with your email address.

Having listened to the observations and specific recommendations of the program panelists, I can say without reservation that if you own any gold shares or have any interest in learning about what may be one of the greatest contrarian investments of a generation, you'll want to sign up for this free webinar today.

Click here to register for Downtown Millionaires now!

By return email you'll receive confirmation and your link to attend the event, which goes live on April 8th at 2pm ET.

Feel free to pass this invitation to everyone you know who may be interested in a once in a lifetime opportunity to profit as the best of the resource stock sector comes roaring back, while the fiat currencies stumble.

Sincerely,

Ray C. Parrish

President/CEO @ The Crude Oil Trader


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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Recent Action in Silver ETFs Is Bad News for Precious Metals Bears

From Author Jeff Clark, Senior Precious Metals Analyst.....

Two weeks ago we looked at the difference between gold ETF outflows vs. physical gold purchases, and showed that most sales were coming from the former while aggressive buying was coming from the latter.


This week we examined the same data for silver – and discovered a rather striking trend. Not only are silver ETFs seeing no net outflows, their holdings are increasing. Bearish investors who treat the two precious metals as being the same, interchangeable thing, and sell silver along with gold are at risk of missing the boat.

Here's how holdings in SLV, the world's largest silver ETF, compare to those of GLD…

The divergence between gold and silver funds is clearly evident. As of March 28, SLV holdings stand at 344,128,478 ounces, up 5% so far this year and just 7% below 2011's record high.

It's not just SLV. As a group, silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) have seen their holdings rise for four consecutive months.

Why the stark divergence between the two precious-metals funds?

As most readers know, silver has a dual nature, serving as both a precious metal and an industrial metal. As a precious metal, it's a store of value like gold – but since roughly half of its use is devoted to various industrial applications, its performance has a strong correlation to economic growth. And since most mainstream analysts are bullish on the global economy, the current surge in silver ETFs is likely a result of this optimism. After all, if you see economic recovery ahead, industrial demand for the metal will grow and the price would be expected to rise.

Further, these massive inflows are occurring at a time when the silver price is mostly flat, whereas the previous peak in holdings took place when the price was soaring (spring 2011). Here's a picture of SLV holdings since January 2012, along with the silver price.


What's interesting is that the increase in SLV holdings has not had a significant impact on silver's price – yet. Since the price usually receives a boost when industries start buying more of it, many of these "paper" buyers are likely adding silver in anticipation of economic recovery, the very reason others are selling gold.

Let's take a look at physical demand.

As with gold, buyers of physical silver tend to have a long-term investment horizon and buy mostly from a currency standpoint. With prices near the bottom of their 22-month range, many investors continue to see opportunity: January sales of American Eagle silver bullion coins spiked to an all-time record of 7.5 Moz, and February's demand was 3.4 Moz, up 126% from last February's sales of 1.5 Moz. Cumulative silver coin demand for the first two months of this year already hit 10.87 Moz, a full third of total coin sales in 2012.

You can see that silver is being sought by both paper and physical buyers.


Whether it's mainstream investors buying in anticipation of economic recovery or physical buyers loading up due to currency concerns, investors collectively see big potential for silver.

Investor Implications: Is Silver a No-Lose Proposition?

 

It's a simplistic conclusion but not necessarily inaccurate: silver rises if the economy improves and industrial demand grows – or it rises if the world's major currencies continue to be debased, regardless of whether the economy is on the mend. Two different reasons, the same investment solution.

What if we get both outcomes: a robust economy and high inflation? That, of course, would be music to the ears of silver owners... the demand from industry strains supply, while bullion owners refuse to sell. Prices would go ballistic.

Does this mean silver is a no-lose proposition? Of course not. No investment comes without risk. An outright depression would be destructive to industrial demand. Roughly two-thirds of silver is used in industry and jewelry, so Doug Casey's Greater Depression could severely impact the biggest portions of current demand. The same events would increase monetary demand for silver, but the two trends may not have equal weight on the price of silver at the same time. We thus wouldn't make silver our sole investment, but we see a lot of upside in the metal under current market conditions.

At the end of the day, we're more inclined to buy silver for the same reasons we buy gold. While a case can be made for an improving economy, there's an overwhelming one already built for government money-printing to result in a massive loss of purchasing power, and that argues for seeking the safe haven of precious metals – both of them.

Don't miss this opportunity: Prices are low right now, and that makes it time to buy.

It's an even better time to buy gold and silver producers – especially select junior mining companies. Right now, the sector is so badly beaten down that even the best-of-the-best outfits are selling at discounts of 50% or more, giving you a rare opportunity to get in at the bottom of what could be the next great investment bubble.

To help you more fully appreciate the magnitude of this opportunity – and to give you concrete investment strategies – some of the world's top natural-resource speculators and economic minds will appear in a special, online video event on April 8, titled Downturn Millionaires. They include: contrarian investment legend Doug Casey; Agora Inc. publisher Bill Bonner; Sprott US Holdings Chairman Rick Rule; Mauldin Economics Chairman John Mauldin; and Casey Research Chief Metals and Mining Investment Strategist Louis James.

The event is free and is a must-see for serious investors. Get more information and register today.


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