VIX Spikes Showing Massive Volatility Increase

Today, we are going to revisit some of our earlier analysis regarding the VIX and our beloved VIX Spikes.  Over the past 3+ months, we’ve been predicting a number of VIX Spikes based on our research and cycle analysis.  Our original analysis of the VIX Spike patterns has been accurate 3 out of 4 instances (75%).  Our analysis has predicted these spikes within 2 to 4 days of the exact spike date.  The most recent VIX Spike shot up 57% from the VIX lows.  What should we expect in the future?

Well, this is where we should warn you that our analysis is subjective and may not be 100% accurate as we can’t accurately predict what will happen in the future. Our research team at Active Trading Partners.com attempt to find highly correlative trading signals that allow our members to develop trading strategies and allow us to deliver detailed and important analysis of the US and global markets.

The research team at ATP is concerned that massive volatility is creeping back into the global markets. The most recent VIX spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous spike. Even though the US markets are clearly range bound and rotating, we expect them to stay within ranges that would allow for the VIX to gradually increase through a succession of VIX spike patterns in the future.

Let’s review some of our earlier analysis before we attempt to make a case for the future. Our original VIX Spike article indicated we believed a massive VIX spike would happen near June 29th. We warned of this pattern nearly 3 weeks ahead of the spike date. Below, you will see the chart of the VIX and spikes we shared with our members. This forecast was originally created on June 7th and predicted potential spikes on June 9th or 12th and June 29th.

What would you do if you knew these spikes were happening?

Currently, we need to keep in mind the next VIX Spike Dates

Sept 11th or 12th and finally Sept 28th or 29th.

Our continued research has shown that the US markets are setting up for a potential massive Head-n-Shoulders pattern (clearly indicated in this NQ Chart). The basis of this analysis is that the US markets are reacting to Political and Geo-Economic headwinds by stalling/retracing. The rally after the US Presidential election was “elation” regarding possibilities for increased global economic activities. And, as such, we have seen an increase in manufacturing and GDP output over the past 6+ months. Yet, the US and global markets may have jumped the gun a bit and rallied into “hype” setting up a potential corrective move.

Currently, the NQ would have to fall an additional 4.5% to reach the Neck Line of the Head-n-Shoulders formation. One interesting facet of the current NQ chart is that is setting up in a FLAG FORMATION that would indicate a massive breakout/breakdown is imminent. The cycle dates that correspond to this move are the September 11th or 12th move.

Please understand that we are attempting to keep you informed as to the potential for a massive volatility spike in the US and Global markets related to what we believe are eminent Political and Geo-Economic factors. Central Banks have just met in Jackson Hole, WY and have been discussing their next moves as well as the US Fed reducing their balance sheets. Overall, the US economy appears to show some strength, yet as we have shown, delinquencies have started to rise and this is not a positive sign for a mature economic cycle. Expectations are that the US Fed will attempt another one or two rate raises before the end of 2017. Our analysis shows that Janet Yellen should be moving at a snail’s pace at this critical juncture.

So, now we get to the VIX Spike Data!

The last, most recent, VIX Spike was nearly DOUBLE the size of the previous Spike. This is an anomaly in the sense that the VIX has, with only a few exceptions, continued to contract as the global central banks continued to support the world’s economies. In other words, smooth sailing ahead as long as the global banks were supplying capital for the recovery.

Now that we are at a point where the central banks are attempting to remove capital from their balance sheets while raising rates and dealing with debt issues, the markets are looking at this with a fresh perspective and the VIX is showing us early warning signs that massive volatility may be reentering the global markets. Any future VIX Spike cycles that continue to increase in range would be a clear indication that FEAR is entering the markets again and that debt, contraction and decreased consumer participation are at play.

I don’t expect you to fully understand the chart and analysis below, but the take away is this. Pay attention to these dates: September 11, September 28 and October 16. These are the dates that will likely see increased price volatility associated with them and could prompt some very big moves.

This analysis brings us to an attempt at creating a conclusion for our readers. First, our current analysis of the Head-n-Shoulders pattern in the NQ is still valid. We do not have any indication of a change in trend or analysis at this moment. Thus, we are still operating under the presumption that this pattern will continue to form. Secondly, the current VIX spike aligns perfectly with our analysis that the markets are becoming more volatile as the VIX WEDGE tightens and as the potential for the Head-n-Shoulders pattern extends. Lastly, FEAR and CONCERN has begun to enter the market as we are seeing moves in the Metals and Equities that portend a general weakness by investors.

We will add the following that you won’t likely see from other researchers – the time to act is NOT NOW. Want to know why this is the case and why we believe our analysis will tell us exactly when to act to develop maximum profits from these moves?

Join the Active Trading Partners to learn why and to stay on top of these patterns as they unfold. We’ve been accurate with our VIX Spike predictions and we will soon see how our Head and Shoulders predictions play out. We’ve already alerted you to the new VIX Spike dates (these alone are extremely valuable). We are actively advising our ATP members regarding opportunities and trading signals that we believe will deliver superior profits. Isn’t it time you invested in your future and prepared for these moves?

Join the Active Trading Partners HERE today and Join a team dedicated to your success.

How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

Maybe you were lucky enough to get a seat at this weeks free webinar with our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading. If you didn't we have good news. John has agreed to come back with another one this upcoming Thursday August 24th to make sure everybody gets a chance to see this.

In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his "10X Trade Formula"

If you have attended one of John's free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 24th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here's just some of what we will cover....

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call Options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation

Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John's popular psychology class, "The Billionaire Mindset." 

How to Turn Dimes into Dollars Catching Volatility Explosions - Next Free Webinar

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Trading is back with another one of his ground breaking free webinars. In this special free training John will show us how he predicts big moves in the market with his "10X Trade Formula"

If you have attended one of John's free trading webinar you know, they fill up to capacity and they fill up fast. So we are putting the word out early so our readers can make sure they get a reserved seat and keep it.

It all takes place Thursday August 17th, 2017 at 8:00 pm est [ 5 pm pacific and 7 pm central]

Reserve Your Spot Here

Here's just some of what we will cover....

    *   The Explosive Setup that Bought John a 200 Acre Ranch on ONE 24 Hour TSLA Trade

    *   How to Precisely Time Black Swan ‘Implosions’ Between August and October

    *   How John Caught Some of the Decade’s Biggest Moves (Including the 2008 Crash)

    *   The Smart Way to Exploit the Obscene Profit Potential of Put and Call Options

    *   How to Avoid Heartbreaking Mistakes that Wipe Out Massive Profits

    *   When to Bet Small and When to ‘Load the Boat’ for a Potential Home Run

    *   How to Predict ‘Explosions and Implosions’ with Shocking Accuracy and Limited Risk

Join John Carter for this Special Presentation

Reserve Your Spot Here


BONUS: Those who attend the webinar live will receive a FREE copy of John's popular psychology class, "The Billionaire Mindset." 

Could There Be a Reversal Coming to the Major U.S. Markets?

Technically speaking, this week could be very important for the major U.S. equity markets. There is an appearance of a “TOPPING PATTERN” forming. I am now awaiting confirmation by the actions of the equity markets, this week. Expect downward pressure beginning this month of August of 2017.

The Only Chart You Need To See!

There is currently limited upside potential in the SPX relative to potential downside for the months of August, September and the early part of October 2017.

There are signs for the short, intermediate and longer term trends returning for the best six months of trading officially inaugurated in November of 2017! This is the timing framework when ‘The Next Runaway Leg Up In The Stock Market Will Resume.’

In last weeks’ market action as the profit taking rotation out of the high-tech sector rotated into the Dow Industrials, it reflected

a more defensive approach while being invested in “Blue Chips” during which time it achieved a new high. Sector rotation increased especially noticeable in the transports and technology sectors that were leading the markets higher. If they continue lower, more sectors will join the decline. I am expecting a coming pop in the VIX on Aug 4, Aug 23, Sept 11 or 12 and finally Sept 28 or 29. 2017. There was a flight to safety in the Yen as well as a strengthening of the price of Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and WTI Crude Oil.

An Unusual Anomaly

Over the past couple of weeks, there was this unusual Anomaly which occurred, as you can see in the chart below. It now makes me more cautious about our long understanding of “risk interconnectivity”.

How can the equity, gold, silver, crude oil and bitcoin markets ALL go HIGHER together?

Tune in every morning for my video analysis and market forecasts at The Gold & Oil Guy to know where the main ‘asset classes’ are headed tomorrow, this week, and next month.

In short, the major equities trend remains to the upside but its likely to take shape in a slow grinding process with downward pressure starting in August fora couple months.

Be sure to follow my daily pre-market video forecasts and ETF trades by visiting here at The Gold and Oil Guy

Chris Vermeulen

Momentum Reversal Method Strikes Again with MOBL

In early May, 2017, we alerted our followers to a trading opportunity that resulted in a nearly perfect Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) setup – this trade was MOBL (Mobileiron Inc).  Now that the trade has completed, we wanted to share with you an example of how the  MRM trading strategy works and how successful some of these setups can become.  But first, lets take a bit of time to understand what Active Trading Partners is and how we provide benefit and services to our clients.

Active Trading Partners is a research and analytics firm that specialized in US Equities, ETFs and major Commodities analysis.  Our objective is to continually provide updated research and analytics for our members as well as to actively deploy our specialized Momentum Reversal Method (MRM) trading strategy for our members use and benefit.  As many of you may remember, on June 11 2017, we posted our research that the “NASDAQ would sell off” and the “VIX would SPIKE” on or near June 29^th, 2017.  How many of you would have loved to know that we predicted a 6% swing in the NASDAQ and a 52% swing in the VIX two weeks in advance on the EXACT DAY it happened? 

What we are trying to illustrate to you is that we attempt to provide value beyond our trading signals and beyond our daily updates.  We attempt to keep you aware of what is likely to happen in the global markets and how these swings can be advantageous for you as traders/investors.  So, before we get sidetracked on the extras we provide, lets focus on this MOBL trade.

MOBL began to appear on our MRM alerts in early April 2017.  As with many of the MRM type of setups, they begin can sometimes start to alert us to setups days or weeks in advance of the actual move.  In this case, classic technical and Fibonacci analysis assisted in confirming our MRM trigger.  The MRM setup was valid and we simply wanted to watch the MRM setup for signs of price volume/rotation.  We often use this price/volume rotation trigger as a means of setting up entry functions for pending MRM triggers.

In early May 2017, the price/volume rotation trigger was complete and now we had a valid entry into MOBL with projected targets of $5.45 and $6.25.  Our analysts identify the targets based on recent price action, where our entry is located and current price/volume rotation levels.  In other words, if we believe the move will be short term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on immediate objectives.  If we believe the move will be a bit longer-term, then we will adjust our targets to focus on that objective.

Just to be clear, everything originates from the MRM trigger.  We may see 20 or 30 of these triggers each week.  From there, price confirmation MUST occur or have already happened in order for it to be considered for our ATP members.  Additionally, we attempt to gauge the overall global markets in terms of risk parameters for each MRM setup/trigger.  If the US majors or global markets are weak and fearful, then we’ll address that risk by being more selective of our MRM triggers and setups.  If our analysts believe the US and global markets are going to continue to trend, then we may widen our risk parameters a bit more.

On May 11^th, 2017, we issued a BUY Swing Trade Alert for MOBL @ $4.65 for a FULL Position.  This exact alert read as follows:

Buy Symbol : MOBL
Max Buy Price: $4.85 or lower
Position Size: FULL
Stop loss: Close below $3.95
Target: $5.45, then $6.25 objective for a 17~35%+ swing potential

Enter FULL position below $4.85 today. A move above $5.35 is expected with a potential for a move above $6.50 later.

As you can see from these charts, we executed the MOBL trade flawlessly. The first target was hit only 6 trading days after entry for a +17% gain.  The second target took a bit longer, but it was eventually hit  26 trading days after entry (about one month after entry).  It was just prior to the second target being hit that our research team indicated that MOBL could run much higher and that we should alert our members that we are going to use Target #2 as a stop adjustment and attempt to let this position run.  Typically, we get about 2~4 of these types of trades each calendar year for our members – you know, the big breakout runners that can turn into 30%, 50%, 120% or more.

When all was said and done, Our VIX/NASDAQ analysis was perfect and the rotation in the tech markets resulted in our MOBL trade getting stopped out July 3^rd, 2017 @ $5.85 for a +25.6% gain.  

This single trade resulted in a +$4000 total return for our members – this one trade will cover their ActiveTradingPartners.com membership for almost FOUR YEARS.  Believe it or not, we are expecting MOBL to generate another MRM setup soon that could allow us to re-enter this trade for the next run higher.

This is an excellent example of how our Momentum Reversal Method strategy works and provides benefits for our clients.  Not only do you receive these timely and accurate triggers, but you also receive our advanced research and market analysis.  Like we said early, we alerted our members to a critical June 29^th market move two weeks before it happened and our analysis hit perfectly.  We like to ask our clients and viewers this question, “isn’t it time you invested in your future?”.  We would really like to help you achieve greater success and find greater opportunities in the markets, but you have to subscribe at Active Trading Partners .com for this to happen.

Isn’t it time you invested in quality, logical trade research your future? CLICK HERE TO JOIN

Chris Vermeulen
aka the Gold and Oil Guy

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes closed higher on Friday July 7th after this weeks employment report showed that 222,000 jobs were added in June marking the second largest job haul of the year and underscoring that the labor market remains healthy. If the futures markets renews this year's rally into uncharted territory, upside targets are going to be hard to project.

So there is nobody better time than now to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 46.35 a barrel while currently trading at 44.75 down about a $1.60 for the trading week despite the fact that this week's EIA report showed a 6.3 million barrel draw down as the short term and longer term trend remains weak. The United States continues to increase production, and that is the main problem as the Trump administration wants to become a major exporter. I'm not involved in oil, but I still have a bearish bias to the downside as prices are still trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you the trend is lower as there were rumors that Russia might be against production cut sending prices lower to end the trading week. The commodity markets, in general, remain choppy and this is not the same oil market from 10 years ago with the U.S. changing the dynamics as we continue to produce more and more. It looks to me that production will increase over the next several years as OPEC is not nearly as powerful as they used to be which is a good thing for U.S. security. I still think prices will test the contract low which was hit on June 21st around $42 in the coming weeks.
Trend: Lower - Mixed
Chart Structure: Improving

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

Gold futures in the August contract hit a 2 month low currently trading at 1,215 an ounce after settling last Friday in New York at 1,242 down over $25 for the trading week continuing its bearish trend breaking the May 9th low of 1,217 as it looks to me that prices as I've stated in previous blogs prices are headed towards the 1,200 level. The monthly employment number came out today stating that we added 220,000 new jobs sending the stock market higher once again as money flows continue to come out of the precious metals & into the equity market. I think this trend will continue with the possibility that we will retest the January 5th low around 1,189 as this market is getting stronger to the downside on a weekly basis. Gold prices are trading under their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower as silver and platinum prices continue to move lower as well. The trend is your friend in the commodity markets and if you are short stay short & place the proper stop loss as I see no reason to own gold at the current time. The U.S dollar is near a 10 month low coupled with major problems with North Korea, however that is still not able to support gold as that tells you how weak this market actually has become.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Silver futures in the September contract are lower by about $0.55 this Friday afternoon currently trading at 15.45 an ounce hitting a 15 month low after settling last Friday at 16.62 down about $1.20 for the trading week and trading lower 5 out of the last 6 trading sessions as the precious metals remain on the defensive. In my opinion it looks to me that prices will retest the March 2016 low around 14.78 as all the interest is in the stock market as we added another 220,000 jobs as the monthly employment report was released sending the stock market sharply higher and the precious metals sharply lower as this trend is for real to the downside. Silver prices are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you this trend is lower and is getting stronger on a weekly basis as I see no reason to own any of the precious metals at the present time. Volatility in silver has certainly expanded over the last week as we've had two 50 cent down days with larger volume than normal which is not a good sign if you're bullish as I'm certainly not recommending any type of bullish position as catching a falling knife can be very dangerous and if you are short stay short as you are on the right side of this trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

Coffee futures in the September contract are trading right near a three week high after settling last Friday in New York at 125.35 a pound while currently trading at 128.80 up about 300 points for the trading week. Coffee is now trading above its 20 day moving average, but still below its 100 day which stands at 136.60 as the trend remains mixed. I am keeping a close eye on this market to the upside as the agricultural sectors have all come alive as it looks to me that short term bottoms are in place as the chart structure is starting to improve with the 10 day low standing at 123.30. It will improve on a daily basis as the spike bottom which happened on June 22nd at 115.50 looks to be the short term low in my opinion. Volatility in coffee has come to a crawl once again which is a good thing therefore lowering the monetary risk as all of the bad news has already been priced into coffee & many of the soft commodities so keep a close eye on this for a bullish position possibly in next week's trade as this sleeping giant will awaken once again just like what happened in the grain market.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid - Improving

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Sugar, , Cotton, Wheat, Soybean and more....Just Click Here!

This Left for Dead Sector is About to Explode Higher

By Justin Spittler 

A revolution has begun. It’s going to change America in ways you can’t possibly imagine. 

No, I’m not talking about a political revolution. I’m talking about an energy revolution. Rick Perry, President Trump’s energy secretary, explained this revolution in a press conference last week:

For years, Washington stood in the way of our energy dominance. That changes now.
We are now looking to help, not hinder, energy producers and job creators.

Perry makes a good point. From 2009 to 2016, the Obama administration held back America’s energy sector. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) alone enacted nearly 4,000 regulations during Obama’s tenure. These measures severely handicapped the energy sector. They even killed some companies. Of course, Obama’s no longer running the show. Trump is. And he wants to put American energy companies first.

This might sound like an empty promise. But if there’s one thing Trump’s done consistently since taking office, it’s support the energy sector. This is great news for oil and gas companies. But it’s even better news for an industry that many investors have left for dead.

I’m talking about the coal industry.…
The coal business is what Doug Casey likes to call a “choo-choo train” industry. It’s a dirty, dangerous, and downright difficult industry. It hasn’t changed much since the Industrial Revolution, either. That’s why environmentalists hate it. It’s also why the EPA passed more than 33,000 pages of regulations under Obama. These measures have cost coal companies $312 billion since 2009. That’s nearly $40 billion per year.

Obama basically tried to regulate the coal industry out of existence.…
He nearly succeeded, too. Just look at all these coal companies that have gone bankrupt in the last few years.

• Patriot Coal
  
• James River Coal
  
• New World Resources
  
• Walter Energy
  
• Alpha Natural Resources
  
• Arch Coal
  
• Peabody Energy
  

Just so you know, these aren’t second or third tier companies. They’re some of the biggest U.S. coal producers.

U.S. coal production fell almost 35% between 2009 and 2016.…
It’s also why the percentage of U.S. electricity fueled by coal plunged from more than 35% in late 2014 to less than 25% a year later. When most people see these statistics, they write off coal completely. They assume it’s finished. But coal isn’t going anywhere…at least not anytime soon. This dislocation between fact and fantasy has created a huge investing opportunity. Here’s why…

Trump wants to help coal companies.…
Everyone knows this. It was one of his biggest pledges during his campaign. But unlike many other things Trump’s promised, he’s actually delivered on this. In fact, one of the first things Trump did as president was roll back the Stream Protection Rule in February. A month later, he called for a review of Obama's Clean Power Plan. He also wants to make it easier for U.S. coal companies to export coal and build coal plants overseas. So far, Trump’s efforts have worked.

U.S. coal production is up 19% this year.…
Coal companies have also added 1,300 jobs since December. This tells us that Trump is breathing life back into the coal industry. Still, you should understand something important. The coal industry will never make a full recovery. That’s because natural gas and renewables have become much cheaper in recent years. Because of this, more and more U.S. power plants are using less coal.

That’s the bad news for the industry. The good news is that coal doesn’t have to return to its glory days for you to make a fortune. It just has to go from “terrible” to “not so bad.”

Here’s why that will happen.…

The rest of the world still needs coal.…
Right now, 1.2 billion people on the planet lack access to electricity. That’s 16% of the world’s population. That’s also 3.5 times more people than there are living in the United States right now. Most of these people live in China and India. These are two of the world’s fastest-growing economies. But these countries can’t keep growing like this without a lot of electricity. And that means huge demand for coal.

Why, you ask? Simple. Coal is still one of the cheapest, most abundant, and most dependable forms of energy. It’s also easy to store and transport. It’s the natural choice for emerging markets with massive energy needs. Just look at what China’s doing. It already burns 4 billion tons of coal every year. That’s four times as much as we burn in the States. And its appetite for coal is only going to get bigger.

This is a huge opportunity for the United States.…
After all, the U.S. has more than a quarter of the world’s coal reserves. Not only that, we have the desire and infrastructure in place to export coal. But don’t take my word for it. Take it from Corsa Coal, a major U.S. coal producer. Their CEO recently said that they plan to export 85% of the coal they produce this year. Most investors don’t realize this. They think the U.S. has to burn more coal for coal stocks to soar. But the industry just needs the government to leave it alone and for the rest of the world to keep burning coal.

Sooner or later, the masses will figure this out. When they do, money will pour into coal stocks. You’ll want to be ready for that. Here’s how you can set yourself up for big gains today….Buy the VanEck Vectors Coal ETF (KOL). This fund invests in 27 different coal and coal-related stocks. It’s a way to bet on a rebound in coal without gambling on one stock. That said, you could still make a killing in KOL. To understand why, look at the chart below. It shows the performance of KOL since it went public in 2008.

Two things jump off the screen here. Number one, KOL’s up 116% since the start of 2016. That tells us the bottom in coal stocks is already in. Number two, KOL is still down 74% from its 2011 highs. This means KOL could more than triple from here and still be cheaper than it was six years ago.

In short, there’s still plenty of upside in KOL. Still, you should understand that this is a speculation. Don’t put more money into them than you can afford to lose. Have an exit strategy. And use stop losses. This will allow you to capture coal’s massive upside while limiting your downside.

The article This Left-for-Dead Sector Is About to Explode Higher was originally published at caseyresearch.com

Mike Seery's Weekly Futures Recap - Crude Oil, Gold, Silver, Coffee and More

The three major indexes all closed higher on Friday, setting the stage for a steady or higher opening on Monday. But will our major commodities join them in a possible bull market run this week? There is nobody better to ask than our trading partner Michael Seery. We've asked him to give you a recap of the this weeks futures markets and give us some insight on where he sees the markets headed this week. Mike has been a senior analyst for over 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Crude oil futures in the August contract have traded higher for the 7th consecutive trading session are currently at 45.34 after settling last Friday in New York at 43.01 a barrel up about $2.30 for the trading week right at a 2 week high. I have not been involved in crude oil for quite some time. The energy sector had a positive week with the U.S dollar down around 150 points helping support prices, and crude is now trading above its 20 day moving average for the 1st time in awhile, but still below its 100 day and this trend remains mixed so avoid this sector. Oil prices bottomed out on June 21st around 42.05, and I'm still not bullish the energy sector. I still think lower prices are ahead as U.S rig counts continue to increase on a weekly basis as the U.S will become a net exporter which means we will rely less on Mideast oil which is a great thing for U.S security and a great thing for prices. Gasoline and heating oil which are byproducts of crude oil also have rallied this week, and they remain very bearish as gas prices at the pump for the Fourth of July weekend are the lowest in 12 years. I paid a $1.96 just the other day.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

Get our Current Market Movement, Trade Triangle and Futures Updates

Gold futures in the August contract settled last Friday in New York at 1,256 an ounce while currently trading at 1,243 down about $13 for the trading week. I'm currently not involved in this market, but I do think lower prices are ahead despite the fact that the U.S dollar was down about 150 points this week, but was still unable to lend any support to gold prices. Gold is still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is lower, if you are short a futures contract place the stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 1,260. The chart structure is solid with the next level of support at 1,235, and if that is broken, I think we could retest the 1,200 level rather quickly. I do not have any precious metal recommendations. I still believe that they remain weak except for copper prices which have broken out to the upside. Gold remains relatively nonvolatile over the last several weeks, and we need some fresh fundamental news such as interest rate hikes or global geopolitical problems to start pushing prices in either direction.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Silver futures in the September contract are currently trading at 16.65 an ounce unchanged this Friday afternoon after settling last Friday in New York at 16.70 unchanged for the week with extremely low volatility. Prices have nothing fundamentally speaking to push prices up or down at present. Silver is still trading below it's 20 and 100 day moving average as this trend remains to the downside despite the U.S dollar being down about 150 points which help support silver prices, but this market remains weak as there's very little demand despite historically low prices. The next major level support is 16.40 and if that is broken prices could retest the May 9th low of 16.12. The commodity markets remain weak despite small rallies across the board. The only exception is the wheat market which is being propelled by exceptional droughts in the Dakotas sending massive volatility into that market. Silver prices have remained extremely choppy in 2017 as we have been trading between 16/18 for many months so I'd avoid this market in my opinion & look at other markets that are beginning to trend with higher volatility.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

Coffee futures settled last Friday in New York at 123.00 a pound while currently trading at 126 up about 300 points for the trading week right at a two week high as a possible spike bottom may have occurred on June 22nd at the 115.50 level. Prices are now trading above their 20 day, but still below their 100 day moving average as this trend remains mixed in my opinion. Coffee has entered their frost season in Brazil and rumors of colder temperatures have pushed up prices in recent days. This market has been bearish over the last several months, but everything comes to an end, and I avoided this market. I wrote about in many previous blogs I was not going to take a short position as I'm still looking at a possible bullish position if prices hit a four week high as the chart structure is solid. My only soft commodity recommendation is a bearish position in the cotton market as traders await the highly anticipated USDA crop report which will be released at 11 o'clock today. It will certainly send high volatility across the board so avoid this market and look at other scenarios with a better risk/reward scenario. I still think coffee prices remain choppy over the next several weeks.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Solid

For more calls on this week's commodity trades like Dow Jones Industrial, Cotton and more....Just Click Here!

The Best Way to Protect Yourself From Out of Control Governments

By Nick Giambruno, editor, Crisis Investing

You probably know it’s a bad idea to put all of your asset eggs in one investment basket. The same goes for holding all of your assets in one country. But how much thought have you put into political diversification? With proper planning, you can greatly reduce the risk your home government presents to your financial and personal well being.

International diversification frees you from absolute dependence on any one country. Achieve that freedom, and it becomes very difficult for any group of bureaucrats to control you. The results can be life changing. Everyone in the world should aim for political diversification. Though it’s especially critical for those who live under a government sinking hopelessly deeper into financial trouble.

That means most Western governments. The US in particular. To get started, there are four core areas to consider: your savings, your citizenship, your income, and your digital presence.

Diversify Your Savings

It’s crucial to place some of your assets beyond the easy reach of your home government. It keeps that government from trapping your money if and when it implements capital controls or outright asset seizures. Any government can do either without warning.

You can diversify your savings in several ways:

• Foreign bank accounts
  
• Precious metals held abroad
  
• Foreign real estate
  

Foreign real estate is especially helpful. I call it a diversification “grand slam” because it accomplishes a number of key goals at once. Owning real estate in a foreign country moves a good chunk of your savings into a hard asset. One that’s outside of your home government’s immediate reach. Ideally, it’s located somewhere you’d enjoy living.

Unlike digital financial assets, it's probably impossible for your home country to seize your foreign real estate. Owning foreign real estate is one of the very few ways you can legally maintain some privacy for your wealth. In that sense, foreign real estate is the new Swiss bank account.

Foreign real estate often opens up other diversification options. In many cases, owning property in a foreign country makes it easier to open a bank account in that country.

It can also put you on the road to obtaining residency in a foreign country. It can even put you on a shortened path to citizenship in some cases. Lastly, owning foreign real estate gives you a second home, vacation hideaway, or place to retire. It’s an emergency “bolt hole” should you need to escape trouble back home.

Diversify Your Citizenship

One way to diversify your citizenship is with a second passport. Unfortunately, there is no route to a second passport that is simultaneously easy, fast, cheap, and legitimate. But that does not decrease the benefits of having one. Among other things, having a second passport allows you to invest, bank, travel, live, and do business in places you wouldn’t otherwise be able to.

There’s another important reason to get a second passport. No matter where you live, your home government can revoke your passport at any moment under any pretext it finds convenient. Your passport doesn’t actually belong to you. It belongs to the government. Having a second passport means that you can always escape your home country without having to live like a refugee.

Diversify Your Income

Income diversification means structuring your cash flows so you’re less dependent on any one country for your income. The goal is to create multiple sources of revenue from international investment opportunities and trends. Bonus diversification points if you do all this through your own offshore company domiciled in a favorable jurisdiction.

Diversify Your Digital Presence

Moving your digital presence to ideal foreign jurisdictions also adds significant political diversification benefits. This commonly includes your IP address (which often pinpoints you to a precise physical address), email account, online file storage, and the components of personal and business websites.

Plan for Bigger Government

Somehow, someway, your home government will keep squeezing your pocketbook harder and keep subjecting you to escalating, arbitrary, and burdensome regulations and restrictions. Expect more government and less freedom all around. The window to protect yourself closes a bit more with each passing week. The good news is you can start to diversify internationally without leaving your home country, or even your living room.

Still, it’s essential to take the necessary steps before the government slams your window of opportunity shut. If history is any guide, it won’t be open forever. It's much better to have developed and implemented your game plan a year early than a minute late.

International diversification is a time tested strategy to protect you from desperate and out of control governments. Wealthy people around the world have used it for centuries to effectively protect their money and their families. Now, thanks to modern technology, anyone can implement similar strategies.

Regards,
Nick Giambruno
Editor, Crisis Investing

P.S. Taking the simple steps above is now more important than ever. As you'll see, widespread economic chaos is coming… America is about to enter a crisis far more severe than what we saw in 2008–2009. 

Most investors aren’t prepared for what's coming. But Doug Casey and I know how to turn these types of situations into huge profits. And in this video, we share need to know information about the coming global economic meltdown.

Click Here to Watch it Now.

The article The Best Way to Protect Yourself From Out-of-Control Governments was originally published at caseyresearch.com

How Gold Stocks Could Deliver Historic Gains in the Years Ahead

By Doug Casey

My regular readers know why I believe the gold price is poised to move from its current level of around $1,250 per ounce to $1,500… $2,000… and eventually past $3,000. Right now, we are exiting the eye of the giant financial hurricane that we entered in 2007, and we’re going into its trailing edge. It’s going to be much more severe, different, and longer lasting than what we saw in 2008 and 2009.

In a desperate attempt to stave off a day of financial reckoning during the 2008 financial crisis, global central banks began printing trillions of new currency units. The printing continues to this day. And it’s not just the Federal Reserve that’s doing it: it’s just the leader of the pack. The U.S., Japan, Europe, China… all major central banks are participating in the biggest increase in global monetary units in history.

These reckless policies have produced not just billions, but trillions in malinvestment that will inevitably be liquidated. This will lead us to an economic disaster that will in many ways dwarf the Great Depression of 1929–1946. Paper currencies will fall apart, as they have many times throughout history. This isn’t some vague prediction about the future. It’s happening right now. The Canadian dollar has lost 33% of its value since 2013. The Australian dollar has lost 27% of its value during the same time. The Japanese yen and the euro have crashed in value. And the U.S. dollar is currently just the healthiest horse on its way to the glue factory.

These moves show that we’re in the early stages of a currency crisis. But if you make the right moves, you could actually make windfall gains instead of suffering losses. Here’s how to do it. The huge winner during this crisis will be the only currency that has real value: gold.

Gold has been used as money for thousands of years because it has a unique combination of qualities. Very briefly, it’s durable, easily divisible, convenient to carry, consistent around the world, and has value in and of itself. Just as important, governments can’t create gold out of thin air. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously someone else’s liability.

When people wake up and realize that most banks and governments are bankrupt, they’ll flock to gold… just as they’ve done for centuries. Gold will rise multiples of its current value. I expect a 200% rise from current levels, at the minimum. There are many reasons, which we don’t have room to cover here, why gold could see a 400% or 500% gain.

This should produce a corresponding bull market in gold stocks… perhaps of a magnitude we’ve never seen. A true mania for gold stocks could develop over the coming years. This could make anyone who buys gold stocks at their current depressed levels very rich.

What History Teaches Us About Great Speculations

Many of the best speculations have a political element to them. Governments are constantly creating distortions in the market, causing misallocations of capital. Whenever possible, the speculator tries to find out what these distortions are, because their consequences are predictable.

They result in trends you can bet on. Because you can almost always count on the government to do the wrong thing, you can almost always safely bet against them. It’s as if the government were guaranteeing your success. The classic example, not just coincidentally, concerns gold.

The U.S. government suppressed its price for decades while creating huge numbers of dollars before it exploded upward in 1971. Speculators who understood some basic economics positioned themselves accordingly. Over the next nine years, gold climbed more than 2,000% and many gold stocks climbed by more than 5,000%.

Governments are constantly manipulating and distorting the monetary situation. Gold in particular, as the market’s alternative to government money, is always affected by that. So gold stocks are really a way to short government — or go long on government stupidity, as it were.

The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.

The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short term, the long term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity. Mining stocks are extremely volatile for that very same reason. That’s good news, however, because volatility makes it possible, from time to time, to get not just doubles or triples but 10 baggers, 20 baggers, and even 100 to 1 shots.

When gold starts moving higher, it’s going to direct a lot of attention towards gold stocks. When people get gold fever, they are not just driven by greed, they’re usually driven by fear as well, so you get both of the most powerful market motivators working for you at once. It’s a rare class of securities that can benefit from fear and greed at once. Remember that the Fed‘s pumping-up of the money supply ignited a huge bubble in tech stocks in the late ‘90s, and then an even more massive global bubble in real estate that burst in 2008. But they’re still creating tons of dollars.

This will inevitably ignite other asset bubbles. Where? I can’t say for certain, but I say the odds are extremely high that as gold goes up, a lot of this funny money is going to pour into these gold stocks, which are not just a microcap area of the market but a nanocap area of the market. The combined market capitalization of the 10 biggest U.S. listed gold stocks is less than 6% of the size of Facebook. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When the public gets the bit in its teeth and wants to buy gold stocks, it’s going to be like trying to siphon the contents of the Hoover Dam through a garden hose.

Gold stocks, as a class, are going to be explosive. Now, you’ve got to remember that most of them are junk. Most will never, ever find an economical deposit. But it’s hopes and dreams that drive them, not reality, and even those without merit can still go up 10, 20, or 30 times your entry price. And companies that actually have the goods can go much higher than that.

You buy gold, the metal, because you’re prudent. It’s for safety, liquidity, insurance. The gold stocks, even though they explore for or mine gold, are at the polar opposite of the investment spectrum; you buy them for their extreme volatility, and the chance they offer for spectacular gains. It’s rather paradoxical, actually.

Why Gold Stocks Are an Ideal “Asymmetric Bet”

Because these stocks have the potential to go 10, 50, or even 100 times your entry price, they offer something called “asymmetry.” You probably learned about symmetry in grade school. It’s when the parts of something have equal form and size. For example, cut a square in half and the two parts are symmetrical.

Symmetry is attractive in some forms. The more symmetrical someone’s face is, the more physically attractive they are considered to be. Symmetry is often attractive in architecture. But when it comes to investing and speculating in the financial markets, the expert financial operator eschews symmetry. Symmetry is for suckers.

The expert financial operator hunts for extreme asymmetry.

An asymmetric bet is one where the potential upside of a position greatly exceeds its potential downside. If you risk $1 for the chance of making $20, you’re making an asymmetric bet. Amateur investors too often risk 100% of their money in the pursuit of a 10% return. These are horrible odds. But the financially and statistically illiterate take them. You might do better in a casino or most sports betting. It’s one of the key reasons most people struggle in the market.

I’ve always been more attracted to asymmetric bets… where I stand a good chance of making 10, 50, even 100 times the amount I’m risking. I’m not interested in even bets. I’m only taking the field if my potential upside is much, much greater than my potential downside. Because of the extreme asymmetry gold stocks offer—because of their extreme upside potential when they’re cheap—you don’t have to take a big position in them to make a huge impact on your net worth. A modest investment of $25,000 right now could turn into $500,000 in five years. It has happened before and it will happen again.

Right now gold stocks are near a historic low. I’m buying them aggressively. At this point, it’s possible that the shares of a quality exploration company or a quality development company (i.e., one that has found a deposit and is advancing it toward production) could still go down 10, 20, 30, or even 50 percent. But there’s an excellent chance that the same stock will go up by 10, 50, or even 100 times. I hate to use such hard to believe numbers, but that is the way this market works. When the coming resource bubble is ignited, the odds are excellent we’ll be laughing all the way to the bank in a few years.

No one, including me, knows that the Mania Phase is just around the corner. But I’ve operated in this market for over 40 years. This is a very reasonable time to be buying these stocks. And it’s absolutely a good time to start educating yourself about them. There’s an excellent chance a truly massive bubble is going to be ignited in this area. If so, the returns are going to be historic.

Regards,

Doug Casey
Founder, Casey Research

Note: Casey Research’s resident gold stock specialist, Louis James, has just unveiled a proprietary strategy for selecting small gold stocks. Over a 30 year historical backtest, the strategy had a 95% success rate. Remarkably, the strategy even produced winning plays during gold’s $700 drop from 2011 to 2015.

So, if the Mania Phase Doug predicts takes off, the asymmetrical gains you’ll see from these small gold stocks could hand you 10, 50, or even 100 times your money. Here, I explain the full story on Louis’ strategy so you can review it for yourself

This article was originally published at caseyresearch.com.