Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Crude Oil Trading Lower, Breaking Through Critical Levels


Crude oil is trading lower as it extends Monday's breakout to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If May extends Monday's decline, the reaction low crossing at 43.74 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.61

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 49.15.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.38.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 45.19.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 43.74.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:30 PM ET. Apr 17...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +6.5M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -613K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +87K)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 79.9%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly higher due to short covering in the overnight trading session as it consolidates some of Monday's decline, but has now moved lower has we near the regular trading session.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top appears to have been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target.

The pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.25.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 828.86.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 802.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 1.50 points. at 834.20 as of 5:51 AM CST. But has now sharply sold off [6+ points] before the opening of regular trading hours.

It had appeared that the overnight action set the stage for a steady to higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends Monday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 88.26 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 87.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.82.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.48.


-

Monday, April 20, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Lower, Pressured By Dollar and Stocks


June crude oil closed down $4.02 at $48.45 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh five week low and saw a bearish downside "breakout" from a wedge pattern on the daily chart. Crude oil bears have regained the near term technical advantage. A big drop in the stock market today and a stronger U.S. dollar helped to pressure crude oil.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 71 points at 87.00 today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh four week high today. Bulls have regained the near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today and near their session lows. The bulls faded today and need to show fresh power soon, or else the recent uptrends on the daily charts will begin to "roll over" and start to produce bearish chart signals.

A heavy slate of corporate earnings reports are due out this week and traders will examine them very closely. It's likely that most of those reports will encourage the stock index bears.

Haliburton Profits Tumble, Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks


"Oil Falls the Most in Seven Weeks as Dollar Gains, Stocks Drop"
Oil fell the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities and on speculation supplies will rise as the recession reduces demand.

Oil dropped as the dollar rose to a one-month high versus the euro, making crude less attractive as a currency and inflation hedge. An Energy Department report last week showed U.S. crude oil inventories climbed to the highest level since September 1990 as demand dropped.

“The strength of the dollar has prompted a selling in the oil market,” said Gene McGillian, an analyst and broker at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “We repeatedly shift from concentrating on the fundamentals of high inventories and low demand on one hand and hopes of recovery later this year. The fundamental picture has reasserted itself today.”....Complete Story

"Halliburton 1Q Profit Tumbles, Cuts Jobs"
Halliburton Co. kicked off the oil sector's first-quarter earnings period on a dour-but-not-unexpected note Monday, reporting net income that tumbled 35 percent from a year ago and offering a poor outlook. It also said it cut more than 2,000 jobs in the first three months of the year.

The company, which has corporate headquarters in Houston and Dubai, was hurt as oil and natural gas producers, stung by low prices, cut back on exploration and drilling, particularly in North America. That's bad news for service companies like Halliburton, which help producers with drilling, reservoir management and other oilfield work.

A major barometer of oil-patch activity is the U.S. rig count, which has fallen more than 50 percent since the end of August. Analysts say the count is likely to fall even more — perhaps another 20 to 30 percent — as producers continue to scale back spending amid bloated oil and gas supplies and weak demand....Complete Story


-

Crude Oil Opens Down, Lower Prices Possible Near Term


May crude oil was sharply lower overnight and appears to be breaking out to the downside of this spring's symmetrical triangle formation.

Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

The pivot point for Monday is 50.44

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.89.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 52.45.

First support is the reaction low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, January's high crossing at 937.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

The pivot point, our line in the sand, for Monday is 864.25

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 829.14.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 11.40 points. at 855.40 as of 5:45 AM CST.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher overnight and is trading above the reaction high crossing at 86.62 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 84.72 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.85.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 88.26.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.62.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.33.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Crude Oil Weekly Pivot Points

Click Image To Enlarge

Chinese Refining Price Increases, California Says No To New Drilling


"Crude Oil Rises as Chinese Refineries Increase Processing Rates"
Crude oil rose after a report showed that Chinese refineries bolstered processing rates for the first time in five months, signaling the government’s economic stimulus measures improved fuel demand. China refined 29.4 million metric tons of crude, or about 6.92 million barrels a day, in March, the China Mainland Marketing Research Co. said in a statement today. That’s up 0.7 percent from a year earlier. U.S. stocks drifted between gains and losses....Complete Story

"California Officials Say No to New Offshore Drilling"
California officials expressed unanimous opposition Thursday to new offshore oil and gas drilling in a meeting U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar held to gauge public sentiment on the issue. Opening the California coast to drilling for oil and natural gas would be an environmental and economic disaster for the state, said Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif. The most populous U.S. state relies on tourism, recreation and other coastal industries....Complete Story

"Norway Oil Industry Seen At Risk If New Areas Not Opened"
Norway's oil and gas production and industry risk going into serious decline by the mid-2020s if a ban on exploration in unexplored offshore areas in the North isn't lifted quickly, oil chiefs say. Combined oil and gas production from Norway, the second-biggest gas exporter to Europe after Russia, and the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, is at a peak that operators hope to sustain until at least 2015, while stemming the decline beyond that....Complete Story


-

Bears Seem To Have Term Advantage On Crude Oil


May crude oil was slightly lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Friday's pivot point, the line in the sand, is 856.25

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 867.00.
Second resistance is January's high crossing at 937.00.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 824.30.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 0.10 points. at 861.40 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off Monday's low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

If June renews Monday's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.


-

Thursday, April 16, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Choppy Trading


May crude oil closed up $0.69 at $49.94 a barrel today. Prices closed near mid range today in quieter trading. Trading has turned choppy. A potentially bearish descending triangle pattern is in place on the daily bar chart. Crude oil bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 10 points at 85.46 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 futures index closed up 13.20 at 861.70. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine week high. The June Dow futures closed up 80 points at 8,060. Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh nine week high today.


-

Crude Rises On Jobless Claims, Petrobras Seeks Additional Rigs


"Crude Oil Rises After Unexpected Decline in U.S. Jobless Claims"
Crude oil rose after the number of U.S. workers claiming jobless benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating the pace of economic decline may be slowing. Oil climbed as much as 2.5 percent after the Labor Department reported that claims decreased by 53,000 to 610,000 in the week ended April 11, the fewest since January. China, the biggest oil consumer after the U.S., grew 6.1 percent during the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost 10 years....Complete Story

"Petrobras Seeks New Rigs, Marches On With Expansion Plan"
Petrobras will start seeking bids for new rigs in the next couple of months as it marches on with its ambitious five-year investment plan. The Brazilian state energy giant in January announced it planned to invest $174.4 billion in 2009-13, including $28.6 billion this year -- an increase from $23 billion in 2008, which is unusual as global oil majors including U.S. firms Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are cutting back on investment....Complete Story

"Total, China In Venezuela Oil Talks"
France's Total, China National Petroleum Corp and Petroleos de Venezuela are in advanced talks about a deal to produce and refine Venezuelan oil to send to China, the Wall Street Journal reported. Senior officials from all three groups plan to meet in Caracas next month to discuss a possible multi billion dollar accord, the paper said on Wednesday, citing people close to the talks.
The 20 year venture could see 200,000 barrels of oil a day shipped to China possibly starting in 2013....Complete Story


-

Crude Higher On Short Covering, Signals Turn Bearish


May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was steady to slightly lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 844.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 831.70.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 819.51.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 847.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Near The Session Lows Again


May crude oil closed up $0.12 at $49.53 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. Trading has turned choppy. A bearish weekly DOE storage report did limit gains in crude and kept prices under pressure most of the day. Crude oil bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed but nearer their session highs today following more weak U.S. economic data. However, there were some minor positives in the data that gave stock traders some confidence the worst of the economic crisis is past. Stock index futures prices are still in uptrends from the March lows.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 32 points at 85.25 today. Prices closed near mid range today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 86.61.


-

Crude Oil falls As Supplies Rise, OPEC Cuts Forcast


"Crude Oil Falls As U.S. Supplies Rise To The Highest Since 1990"
Crude oil fell after a government report showed that U.S. stockpiles climbed to the highest level in almost 19 years as demand dropped. Inventories rose 5.67 million barrels to 366.7 million last week, the highest since September 1990, the Energy Department said today....Complete Story

"Energy Stocks Experience Difficult First Quarter"
The S&P 500 Index experienced an 11.7% loss for the first quarter of 2009 while the index's Energy sector generated a slightly worse quarterly performance with a 12.1% loss. Of the S&P 500's ten industry sectors, only Technology produced a positive investor return....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts 2009 Oil Demand Forecast As World Economy Contracts"
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for oil demand this year for an eighth successive month as the economic slowdown in the world’s biggest oil consumers worsens. The estimate for 2009 global demand was lowered by 430,000 barrels a day....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Will Equities Bring Oil Down?


May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this week's decline.

However, stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Closes above March's high crossing at 54.66 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the current consolidation pattern.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI remain overbought.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Wednesday's daily pivot point is 845, weekly pivot is 837.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 833.84.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 816.28.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 1.10 points. at 839.20 as of 6:01 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was lower overnight and is poised to extend Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's decline, last Monday's low crossing at 84.10 is the next downside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24 would open the door for additional short covering gains during April.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

10:30 AM ET. Apr 10..US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....Crude Oil Stocks (previous 361M)

.....Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.1M; previous +1.6M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (previous 217.4M)

.....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -500K; previous +656K)

.....Distillate Stocks (previous 140.7M)

.....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -3.3M)

.....Refinery Usage (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

-

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Crude Oil Falls On Weak Retail Numbers, OPEC Thwarted By Brazil and Russia


"Crude Oil Falls After U.S. Retail Sales Unexpectedly Drop"
Crude oil fell after a report showed that retail sales in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, unexpectedly declined in March. The oil market retreated after the Commerce Department reported that sales dropped 1.1 percent. Prices paid to U.S. producers decreased in March after two months of gains, a Labor Department report showed....Complete Story

"World Awash in Oil: Demand Lacking Says IEA"
On Friday the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its forecast for global oil demand by one million barrels per day (b/d) to 83.4 million b/d. That means the world will be using approximately 2.4 million b/d less than in 2008, or roughly a 3% decline from a year ago. This matches the first year decline experienced during the 1979-1983 period, but the IEA does not....Complete Story

"OPEC Cuts Thwarted as Brazil, Russia Grab U.S. Market"
As OPEC nations make their biggest oil production cuts on record, Brazil, Russia and the U.S. are pumping more, threatening to send crude back below $50 a barrel as demand slows. U.S. imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries fell 818,000 barrels a day, or 14 percent, to 5.02 million in January from a year earlier....Complete Story

"Qatar Energy Minister Says Oil Between $40-50/Barrel Realistic"
Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy and Industry Abdullah al-Attiya said on Monday that oil prices between $40 and $50 per barrel are realistic under the current global financial crisis. Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the International Energy Forum....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight On Short Covering


May crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was steady to lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of its recent gains. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.68 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 861.30.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 830.56.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 813.66.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 2.10 points. at 851.90 as of 5:58 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

If June renews last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 86.24.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:30 PM ET. Apr 10...API Oil Industry Report

.....................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.2M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -451K)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +1.7M)

.....................Refinery Runs (previous 81.8%)

Monday, April 13, 2009

Crude Oil Bulls and Bears Appear To Be On Level Playing Field


May crude oil closed down $2.17 at $50.07 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has turned choppy. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was sharply lower but equities prices were also weaker. Bulls and bears are still on a level near term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 135 points at 84.72 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls faded badly today. Bears have regained the slight near term technical advantage.

The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today and nearer their session highs after being under solid pressure in the early going. The bulls still have some upside near term technical momentum, but need to show more power soon. There are early clues that major market lows are in place.

IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low, Sends Crude Oil Lower


"Crude Oil Falls After IEA Cuts Demand Forecast to Five Year Low"

Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after an International Energy Agency report showed that 2009 demand may slump to the lowest level in five years as factories shut and car sales tumble amid a global recession.

Consumption will decline 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, to 83.4 million barrels a day, according to the IEA report on April 10. U.S. crude oil supplies are at their highest since July 1993, the Energy Department said on April 8....Complete Story

Crude Oil Opens Lower Monday Morning


May crude oil was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 47.26 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May extends last Thursday's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 51.50.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 47.26.

Crude oil appears to be range bound at this point in the 47 to 54 area. Most traders should be looking to go long on all dips into the 47 to 48 area while less conservative traders may also want to short crude in the 53 to 54 area.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of last Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 7.50 points. at 845.10 as of 5:53 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

Our SP 500 pivot point, our line in the sand is 843.50. If we break below 843 in the regular trading session we will go short for our SP day trade.

First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 854.50.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 822.91.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 808.32.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below last Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.22.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is last Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

China May Sign $10 Billion Oil Deal With Kazakhstan

"China, Kazakhstan May Sign $10 Billion Accord for Oil"
China, the world’s second biggest energy consumer, may agree next week on lending $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right to take a stake in an oil producer in the Central Asian country.

China National Petroleum Corp. plans to buy a minority holding in AO Mangistaumunaigas from state-run KazMunaiGaz National Co., a China National official said yesterday. The two nations may sign an accord on April 15 when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev visits Beijing, the official said, declining to be identified because of internal rules....Complete Story

Friday, April 10, 2009

This Week's Chart For Crude Oil

Chevron Production Rises, IEA Forcast Lowest In Five Years


"IEA Cuts Oil Demand Forecast to Lowest in Five Years"
The International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by 2.4 million barrels a day this year, about the same amount that Iraq produces, as the economic slump reduces consumption to the lowest since 2004. The adviser to 28 nations cut its 2009 forecast....Complete Story

"Petrovietnam Shortlisted to Negotiate Iraq Oil Drilling Contracts"
The National Oil and Gas Group (PetroVietnam) has been short-listed to negotiate on oil drilling contracts at 11 petroleum fields in Iraq, the country's Ministry of Oil said. The list of nine investors was created from 38 firms joining the tender held on December 31, 2008, including....Complete Story

"Chevron Production Rises, Halting Two Year Decline"
Chevron Corp., the second largest U.S. oil company, said production headed for a quarterly gain for the first time since 2006 as new platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and offshore Africa began operation. Chevron pumped the equivalent of 2.645 million barrels....Complete Story

"Saudi To Deepen May Oil Supply Cuts To 2 Asia Buyers"
Saudi Arabia will unexpectedly cut oil supplies to some major Asian refiners next month, suggesting the world's top exporter may be more concerned than some of its OPEC peers about swelling crude inventories....Complete Story

Thursday, April 9, 2009

May crude oil closed up $2.65 at $52.03 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for crude during the day, as the U.S. dollar was stronger and equities prices were also stronger. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading conditions.

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly higher today as the indexes closed at bullish weekly high closes and hit multi-week highs. The bulls today did gain fresh upside near term technical momentum. There are now early clues that major market lows are in place.

The June U.S. dollar index closed up 33 points at 86.04 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a bullish weekly high close. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage.

Oil Chart Signals A Bounce Needed For Rally, Oil Jumps Up More Than $2 Dollars


"Oil Rises More Than $2 as Equity Gains Signal Demand May Climb"
Crude oil rose more than $2 a barrel as equities gained, signaling that some investors expect economies to stabilize, bolstering energy demand. Oil climbed as much as 6.2 percent after stocks increased on better than estimated earnings at Wells Fargo & Co. and speculation banks will pass government stress tests....Complete Story

"Alaska Oil Regulators Deny Exxon Petition"
The state of Alaska has denied a petition from Exxon Mobil seeking permission from regulators to form a new oil and gas unit at Point Thomson. Exxon this week asked the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to unite the leases of different companies within the Point Thomson oil and gas field....Complete Story

"Oil Chart Signals a Bounce Needed for Rally: Technical Analysis"
Crude oil futures for May delivery are testing key support levels and an “immediate bounce” is needed for the contract to return to recent highs, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. If prices break through support at the $47.50 to $48, a barrel level, the contract....Complete Story

"Mexico, U.S. Energy Ministers Meet on Cross-Border Oil Fields"
Mexican Secretary of Energy Georgina Kessel Martinez and her U.S. counterpart Steven Chu met on cross-border oil fields and renewable energy, said a statement of the Mexican government. The two ministers met during Kessel's visit to the United States.
The statement said that Kessel....Complete Story

Crude Oil Enjoys The Equities Rally, Still Below 20 Day Moving Average


May crude oil was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline but remains below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.

Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.85.
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.

First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends this week's rally, last week's high crossing at 86.61 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low would open the door for a possible test of March's low crossing at 83.15.

First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's upside reversal. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and remain bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 802.59.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was up 5.80 points. at 828.40 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Short Covering and Rally In Stocks


May crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidates some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are
possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is today's low crossing at 47.37.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar closed higher on Wednesday and above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 signaling that a short term low has been posted. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 817.04 as it consolidated some of Tuesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June renews the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 802.60.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 798.30.

National Oil Well Varco Continues Shopping Spree, Crude Oil Lower After Mid Day Rally


"Louisiana Reps Urge Salazar to Authorize More Offshore Drilling"
Louisiana representatives encouraged U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar to authorize more offshore drilling for oil and gas at a regional meeting held in New Orleans Wednesday. The representatives asked Salazar not to forget the importance of the oil and gas industry in the U.S. economy as a source of jobs and tax dollars....Complete Story

"National Oilwell Varco Snaps Up 2 European Service Companies"
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. has acquired ASEP Group Holding B.V. and Anson Limited.
ASEP, based in the Netherlands, develops and manufactures well service equipment, including wireline units, cranes, coiled tubing equipment, pressure control products, and automation products....Complete Story

"Energy Prices May Rise on `Slingshot' Effect After Credit Chills Drilling"
The credit crunch will keep U.S. oil and gas producers from ramping up exploration they do through drillers such as Nabors Industries Ltd., setting the stage for shortages and surging prices when demand recovers....Complete Story

"Aventine, U.S. Ethanol Producer, Files for Bankruptcy After Reporting Loss" Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings Inc., a U.S. ethanol producer that counts a unit of Citigroup Inc. among its biggest investors, sought bankruptcy protection from creditors after reporting a fourth-quarter net loss of $36.9 million on March 16....Complete Story

Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected


"Crude Supplies Grow Less Than Expected"
Oil prices rose Wednesday as stocks opened higher, and after a government report showed supplies of crude increased less than expected. In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said crude stocks increased by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended April 3. Analysts expected an increase of 2.3 million barrels of crude oil, according to a consensus estimate of industry analysts....Complete Story

Crude Oil Extends Tuesday's Decline In Overnight Trading


May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.63
Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90

First support is the overnight low crossing at 47.37
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


10:30 AM ET. Apr 3...US Energy Dept Oil Inventories

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (previous 359.4M)

.....................Crude Oil Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.84M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (previous 216.79M)

.....................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +2.22M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (previous 144.1M)

.....................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +221K)

.....................Refinery Usage (previous 81.7%)


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally and is trading above resistance marked by the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53.

Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.53 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would confirm that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 86.13.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight and trading below initial support marked by the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.17 signaling that a short term top has been posted.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning bearish signaling that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 797.93.
Second support is last week's low crossing at 775.70.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 4.40 points. at 809.60 as of 5:56 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Crude Oil Close Lower On Tuesday, Continues Lower In After Market Trading


May crude oil closed lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it extends Monday's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 49.79, we will look to go short if we open below 49.79.

First support is today's low crossing at 48.89.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends Monday's rally. Today's close above the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.28 tempers the near term bearish outlook. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

If June resumes last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Tuesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 815.14 signaling that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If June extends the rally off March's low, the reaction high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 867.50.

First support is today's low crossing at 812.00.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.37.

Oil Industry Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Atlas Pipeline Partners......7.78%
Cimarex Energy..............5.06%
Edge Petroleum..............4.55%
Parallel Petroleum...........3.75%
Tesoro Petroleum............3.46%

Losers

Meridian Resource..........-8.00%
ENSCO International........-7.55%
Parker Drilling..............-7.08%
McMoRan Exploration.......-6.43%
Dawson Geophysical........-5.84%

Change based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Could Fall On Hurricane Season Estimates


"Forecasters See Lower Average for 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season"
According to forecasters at Colorado State University, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to show average storm activity from June 1 to Nov. 30. The forecasters cite an average of 12 storms for the active season, six of which will transform into hurricanes with two set to become intense hurricanes, which are defined by sustained winds of 111 miles per hour or more....Complete Story

Crude Oil Falls Overnight, Trading Below 20 Day Moving Average


May crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline and is trading below the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.50.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

If May renews last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 50.00.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it extends Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted and would signal that the c-wave of an a-b-c correction off March's low is underway.

If June renews the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.66.
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Monday's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of last week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If June extends the rally off March's low, February's high crossing at 867.50 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 847.90.
Second resistance is February's high crossing at 867.50.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 816.59.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 793.60.

The June S&P 500 Index was down 10.90 points. at 819.50 as of 5:50 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the March S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4:30 PM ET........Apr 3 API Oil Industry Report

..................Crude Stocks (Net Change) (expected +2.3M; previous +3.27M)

..................Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (expected -700K; previous -451K)

..................Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (expected -200K; previous +1.77M)

..................Refinery Runs (expected 82.1%; previous 81.8%)

Monday, April 6, 2009

Crude Oil Looks To Open Lower On Tuesday After Today's Low Range Close


May crude oil closed lower on Monday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 is the next upside target. Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.35.
Second support is last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar posted a key reversal up on Monday as it consolidated some of last week's decline but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.15. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday.

Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends last week's decline, March's low crossing at 83.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.85 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.85.
Second resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is today's low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Crude Oil Declines As Stocks Fall


"Crude Oil Falls for a Second Day as U.S. Equities Decline"
Crude oil fell for a second day in New York as U.S. stocks declined on speculation that bank loan losses will increase. Oil fell as much as 4.2 percent after Mike Mayo, analyst at Calyon Securities, advised selling bank shares and International Business Machines Corp.’s purchase of Sun....Complete Story

"Venezuela to Develop Iran's Oil Fields"
Venezuela would participate in developing Iran's oil fields, according to a report released by Iran's Press TV website on Sunday. Venezuelan state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to develop "17 small oil fields in Iran," the report said....omplete Story

"Oil Prices Slide In Line With Stock Markets"
Oil prices dropped more than a dollar on Monday after earlier bouncing above 54 dollars per barrel in London, as traders tracked fresh falls on global stock markets.
In London trade on Monday, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in May dived 1.16....Complete Story

Crude Oil Opens Sharply Lower Monday Morning


May crude oil was higher overnight, above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.81 but has opened sharply lower this morning.

Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Near term is the key here, we still see crude falling back to the $45 dollar area.

If May extends last week's rally, March's high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next upside targets.

Closes below last Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.81.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.45.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last Thursday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.09. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

If June extends the decline off last week's high, March's low crossing at 83.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.82 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.09.
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 85.82.

First support is the overnight low crossing at 84.10.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Sunday, April 5, 2009

Where Is Crude Oil Headed This Week, And Beyond

What an amazing rally the bulls have enjoyed, but it is not rocket science to understand that just like the equity markets oil is more likely to retrace back to $45 than it is to continue up to $65 from here. Look for crude to pull back to the shaded area in the not to distant future.....



I

Saturday, April 4, 2009

Drilling For Oil In Illinois?


"Indigo-Energy Completes Drilling Oil, Gas Wells in Illinois Basin"
Indigo-Energy, ticker IDGG, has completed the drilling of four wells in the Illinois Basin. The company revealed its plans to commence drilling in this region in December of 2008 and is announcing today the completion of this project.....Complete Story

Friday, April 3, 2009

Crude Oil Closes Lower On Unemployment Concerns


"Oil Drops On Concern U.S. Unemployment Will Erode Fuel Demand"
Crude oil dropped after a report showed the U.S. jobless rate at a 25-year high, adding to concern fuel demand will slide further. Oil fell as much as 3.1 percent after the Labor Department said the economy lost more than 650,000 jobs for a fourth consecutive month. Total daily fuel demand averaged over the past four weeks reached the lowest since October, the Energy Department said April 1.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Higher Overnight, Falling At Friday's Open


May crude oil was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally above the 10 day moving average crossing at 51.95.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If May extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 54.66 then January's high crossing at 58.31 are the next downside targets.

Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 53.90.
Second resistance is March's high crossing at 54.66.

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 50.23.
Second support is Wednesday's low crossing at 47.26.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05.

Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Multiple closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 85.05 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.

Closes above Monday's high crossing at 86.61 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 86.09.
Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 86.61.

First support is Thursday's low crossing at 84.46.
Second support is March's low crossing at 83.14.

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Crude Oil Stock Market Winners and Losers

Winners

Atlas Pipeline Partners, L.P....+16.07%
FX Energy.......................+14.39%
Meridian Resource................+9.52%
Stone Energy.....................+7.81%
Parallel Petroleum...............+7.03%

Losers

Energy Partners..................-16.67%
Edge Petroleum...................-10.53%
Syntroleum........................-8.22%
Brigham Exploration...............-5.79%
McMoRan Exploration...............-2.77%

Changes based on the last 2 days of trading

Crude Oil Closes Higher On Falling Dollar and Stronger Equities Market


May crude oil closed up $4.15 at $52.54 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering and fresh speculative buying interest. A stronger U.S. stock market and optimism in the wake of the G-20 meeting in London boosted crude today. A sharply lower U.S. dollar also aided crude today. Bulls have regained upside near term technical momentum.

The June U.S. dollar index closed down 109 points at 84.87 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls faded today. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at this week's high of 86.61.

Crude Oil Settles Higher At One Week High Above $52 Barrel


Crude oil futures zoomed back above $50 a barrel Thursday as traders responded to hopes demand will firm up if the world economy does.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery settled at $52.64, up $4.25 or 8.8%, a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude on the ICE Futures exchange settled $4.31 higher at $52.75 a barrel.

The Nymex close was the highest in a week. Oil started the day strongly in sympathy with rising world stock markets and was further fueled by....Complete Story