Markets Close Slightly Lower as Traders Appear to be in Wait and See Mode

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off July's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.56. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 103.27.

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1661.54.

October gold closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. If October extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1395.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1395.20. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1283.10. Second support is July's low crossing at 1208.50.

September Henry natural gas closed lower on Monday as it extends this decline off May's high. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at 3.350 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.671. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 3.833. First support is today's low crossing at 3.427. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.350.


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Anadarko and Superior Energy Report 2nd Quarter Earnings

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) today announced second quarter 2013 net income attributable to common stockholders of $929 million, or $1.83 per share (diluted). These results include certain items typically excluded by the investment community in published estimates. In total, these items increased net income by approximately $392 million, or $0.78 per share (diluted), on an after tax basis.(1) Cash flow from operating activities in the second quarter of 2013 was approximately $2.502 billion, and discretionary cash flow totaled $1.908 billion.(2)

Second Quarter 2013 Highlights

    *    Generated $290 million of adjusted free cash flow(2)
    *    Increased U.S. onshore oil volumes by almost 20,000 barrels per day over second-quarter 2012
    *    Reached milestones at four large scale oil projects in Algeria, Ghana and the Gulf of Mexico
    *    Drilled five deepwater discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico and Mozambique

"We continue to have exceptional performance from our portfolio, as evidenced by the results delivered in the second quarter of 2013," said Anadarko Chairman, President and CEO Al Walker. "Our U.S. onshore activities delivered year over year oil growth of 25 percent, averaging approximately 97,000 barrels per day during the quarter. We continued to drive significant improvements into our drilling and completions programs, and costs in each category were favorable to our expectations.

We reached milestones at four of our large global oil projects, which are advancing on schedule and on budget, and we achieved a success rate of almost 70 percent in our deepwater exploration/appraisal program, including five new discoveries. We also strengthened the balance sheet, improving our net debt to adjusted capitalization ratio(2) to 29 percent compared to 34 percent at the end of 2012."

Read the entire Anadarko earnings report

Superior Energy Services (NYSE: SPN) today announced net income of $68.6 million, or $0.43 per diluted share, on revenue of $1,159.7 million for the second quarter of 2013.

These results compare with the second quarter of 2012 net income from continuing operations of $142.8 million, or $0.90 per diluted share, and net income of $141.9 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, on revenue of $1,243.3 million.

For the six months ended June 30, 2013, the Company recorded net income of $132.3 million, or $0.82 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,295.2 million. For the six months ended June 30, 2012, the Company recorded net income from continuing operations of $213.0 million, or $1.49 per diluted share, and net income of $195.8 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, on revenue of $2,210.2 million.

David Dunlap, President and CEO of the Company, commented, "As previously announced, our decision to relocate pressure pumping equipment coupled with a slowdown in Mexico and weather in North Dakota impacted our results. However, this was partially offset by some underlying positives during the quarter including improved profit margins, increasing Gulf of Mexico activity and execution of our international growth strategy.

"We were able to slightly increase profit margins for the second consecutive quarter in the Onshore Completions and Workover segment despite downtime in pressure pumping related to equipment relocation and downtime for most services impacted by poor weather in North Dakota. This was achieved by our disciplined approach of maintaining margins rather than growing market share.

"Gulf of Mexico activity has increased at a rapid pace relative to last year with increases coming across our three business segments with operations in the Gulf. Our Gulf of Mexico revenue for the first six months of 2013 increased 34% over the first six months of 2012. Drilling Products and Services segment revenue in the first half of 2013 has increased 30% over the first half of 2012 due to increased deepwater drilling activity. In addition, our Subsea and Technical Solutions segment revenue in the Gulf is 29% higher as a result of a robust market for completion tools and products.

Finally, our international revenue for the first six months of 2013 has increased 13% over the first half of 2012 as growth plans in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina collectively performed as anticipated and in some cases, ahead of schedule."

Read the entire Superior Energy earnings report


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This weeks earnings reports schedule from the oil sector

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Monday                                             Consensus EPS        One year ago actual

Anadarko Petroleum (APC)                     $0.880                $0.850
Superior Energy Services (SPN)              $0.480                 $0.830

Tuesday

Enbridge Energy Partners (EEP)             $0.220                 $0.230
Ensco (ESV)                                           $1.50                   $1.41
Holly Energy Partners (HEP)                   $0.300                $0.320
National Oilwell Varco (NOV)                  $1.33                   $1.46
Occidental Pete Corp (OXY)                    $1.63                   $1.64

Wednesday

Atwood Oceanics (ATW)                       $1.34                  $0.790
Hercules Offshore Inc (HERO)              $0.060                  $0.12
Hess Corp (HES)                                   $1.39                   $1.72
Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR)                      $1.54                   $1.52
Phillips 66 (PSX)                                   $1.94                    $2.23
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)          $1.10                   $0.780
Suncor Energy (SU)                              $0.630                  $0.810

Thursday

Apache Corp (APA)                              $2.01                   $2.07
Chesapeake Energy (CHK)                  $0.400                  $0.060
ConocoPhillips (COP)                          $1.28                     $1.22
CVR Energy Inc (CVI)                         $1.62                     $2.52
Enbridge Inc (ENB)                             $0.380                   $0.360
Eni Spa (E)                                          $0.450                   $0.970
Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM)                    $1.90                     $1.80
Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG)                    $0.140                   $0.100
Southwestern Energy (SWN)               $0.510                   $0.260
Tesoro Corp (TSO)                              $1.46                     $2.87
Walter Energy (WLT)                           $0.48                    $0.430

Friday

Ultra Petroleum Corp. (UPL)              $0.410                   $0.360

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Have the crude oil bears taken the clear advantage?

September crude oil closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 104.15. Second support is today's low crossing at 103.90.

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The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1657.12.

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August gold closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1277.50. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.

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August Henry natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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Is this a buy signal in coffee? JO

Our trading partner Jim Robinson of INO.com is talking coffee today and he is sharing his expert analysis of charts to our readers. Each week he'll be be analyzing a different chart using our Trade Triangle technology and his experience. Today he is going to take a look at the technical picture of Coffee, contract (NYBOT_KC.Z13.E). Here at The Crude Oil Trader we are using ticker JO for our current coffee trades.

This week let's take a look at the December Coffee futures chart.

We use the weekly MarketClub Trade Triangle to tell the trend when trading futures and the daily MarketClub Trade Triangle to time the trade. December Coffee is on a weekly green MarketClub Trade Triangle and a daily red MarketClub Trade Triangle which is just exactly the way we want the Triangles to line up for a buy setup.

If December Coffee trades higher from here and puts in a daily green MarketClub Trade Triangle that is the place to go long because the weekly and daily Trade Triangles will then both be pointing up. If a long trade does happen in Coffee, then the stop if wrong is if Coffee trades lower and puts in a red daily Trade Triangle.

This is a great way to trade because we are getting long with the trend and will catch all the big trending moves when they happen, while cutting our loses short if the trade doesn't move our way. If Coffee continues lower from here and puts in a red weekly Trade Triangle then the long trade is off, which is fine, as we are following what the market is telling us, and lower prices from here would cancel the current long trade setup.

Coffee is a Chart to Watch right now, because a big move higher from here could be about to happen.




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Bears taking charge....Crude oil bulls struggle to trade above 20 day moving average

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Thursday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1653.23.

September crude oil closed slightly higher on Thursday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.43. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.08. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.77.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.668 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If August extends today's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.546 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.546. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

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EIA: By 2040 world energy consumption will rise by 56%

From Robin Dupre at Rigzone.com......

World energy consumption will rise 56 percent in the next three decades, driven by growth in the developing world, noted The Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its International Energy Outlook 2013 report Thursday. China and India’s rising prosperity is a major factor in the outlook for global energy demand, noted EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski in a press conference call.

“These two countries combined account for half the world’s total increase in energy use through 2040. This will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets.” Energy demand will increase to 820 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2040, up from 524 quadrillion Btus. By 2040, China’s energy use will double the United States’, according to EIA estimates.

One quadrillion Btu is equal to 172 million barrels of crude oil.

Additionally, renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of energy consumption with each increasing by 2.5 percent per year. But fossil fuels, including oil, natural gas and coal will continue to supply almost 80 percent of the world’s energy through 2040, noted Sieminski.

Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in EIA’s outlook, and will continue to dominate the landscape, increasing by 1.7 percent per year. Swelling supplies of tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide gas use with non OECD Europe/Eurasia, Middle East and the United States accounting for the largest increases in natural gas production.

The explosion in supply from unconventional sources will underpin growth of natural gas demand, while high oil prices will encourage countries to focus on liquid fuels “when feasible”, the report stated.

The EIA’s July short term energy outlook projected benchmark Brent crude to average $105 a barrel in 2013 and $100 in 2014.The report projects that prices will increase long term with the world oil price reaching $106 a barrel in 2020 and $163 in 2040 in the Reference case.

With more than 10 years of journalism experience, Robin Dupre specializes in the offshore sector of the oil and gas industry. Email Robin at rdupre@rigzone.com.

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Statoil Reports 2013 Second Quarter Results STO

Statoils (NYSE:STO) second quarter 2013 net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion. Adjusted earnings were NOK 38.0 billion. "Statoil delivered an operationally solid quarter. We produced as planned, delivering record production from our portfolio outside Norway. We are on track and maintain our guidance for 2013," says Helge Lund, Statoil's president and CEO.

"Our financial results were impacted by lower prices for liquids and gas and weak trading results. However, we have maintained good cost control and delivered strong earnings, particularly from our international portfolio," says Lund.

In the quarter, Statoil ramped up several fields. The company continues to have a high activity level in projects on the Norwegian continental shelf, with major field developments ongoing such as Gudrun, Åsgard subsea compression and Valemon.

"The activity level on new field developments is high. We are executing our projects according to plan," says Lund.

Statoil continued its exploration progress with five discoveries in the quarter. The company has accessed attractive exploration acreage in Norway, Russia, Azerbaijan, Tanzania and Australia, further strengthening its position for profitable long term growth.

Second quarter results 2013

Statoil's net operating income was NOK 34.3 billion compared to NOK 62.0 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings [5] were NOK 38.0 billion, compared to NOK 45.8 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Adjusted earnings after tax [5] were NOK 11.3 billion, compared to NOK 11.5 billion in the second quarter of 2012. Net income was NOK 4.3 billion compared to NOK 26.6 billion in the second quarter of 2012.

Key events since first quarter 2013:

Revitalising Statoil's legacy position on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) by progressing new projects as planned, including Gudrun, Åsgard subsea gas compression, Valemon and Aasta Hansteen. Two category- J rigs acquired by the licence partners of Gullfaks and Oseberg Area Unit to increase recovery and extend field life. Johan Castberg project postponed for review, due to updated project estimates and pending clarification in the fiscal framework.

Accessing attractive acreage in the Barents Sea, Brazil, Tanzania, Russia, Caspian and Australia. Oil discoveries announced offshore Newfoundland in Canada and in the Grane area in Norway. Important Johan Sverdrup appraisal completed, confirming the extent and characteristics of the reservoir.

Stepping up our activity in unconventional resources by assuming operatorship for all activities in the eastern part of our Eagle Ford asset in Texas. Statoil now has operational activities in all onshore assets in the US (Bakken, Marcellus and Eagle Ford).

Building offshore clusters by sanctioning the Julia and Heidelberg developments in the Gulf of Mexico.

Creating value from a superior gas position: The Shah Deniz consortium announced that it has selected the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to deliver gas from the Shah Deniz Stage 2 project.

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Commodities Market Summary for Wednesday Evening

The September S&P 500 closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If September extends the rally off June's low, upside targets will now be hard to project with the next trading into uncharted territory. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.65 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1695.50. Second resistance is unknown with September trading into uncharted territory. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1666.00. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.65.

September crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday and below the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.29 signaling that a short term top is in or is near. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is today's low crossing at 104.79. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 103.25.

August Henry natural gas closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.672 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If August renews last Thursday's rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.003 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 3.835. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.003. First support is the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 3.508. Second support is January's low crossing at 3.365.

August gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday consolidating some of the rally off June's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If August extend the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 1394.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.60 would temper the near term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1348.70. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1394.00. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1266.70. Second support is June's low crossing at 1179.40.


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EIA: Underground Natural Gas Working Storage Capacity

Natural gas working storage capacity increased by about 2 percent in the Lower 48 states between November 2011 and November 2012. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has two measures of working gas storage capacity, and both increased by similar amounts:

*   Demonstrated maximum volume increased 1.8 percent to 4,265 billion cubic feet (Bcf)

*   Design capacity increased 2.0 percent to 4,575 Bcf

Maximum demonstrated working gas volume is an operational measure of the highest level of working gas reported at each storage facility at any time over the previous five years, according to EIA's monthly survey of storage operators. Working gas is the volume of natural gas in an underground natural gas facility available to be withdrawn, not including base gas.

The maximum demonstrated working gas volume is a practical measure of full storage. Filling storage, which requires compressors to inject the gas into the storage facility, becomes more difficult and expensive as storage volume nears its maximum and pressures inside the facility increase.

That's why the demonstrated maximum is generally less than the design capacity, averaging 93% over the past two measurement periods (see Table 1), and why any given week's storage inventory is generally less than the demonstrated maximum. The maximum demonstrated volume provides guidance to operators and market analysts on the economics of filling the system.

Last October, for example, when working gas in storage reached a record-high of 3,930 Bcf, a simple calculation using the then current maximum demonstrated volume (4,188 Bcf) showed storage to be 94% full.

Read the entire EIA Report


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Tuesday's Trading Gives Crude Oil Bulls Some Hope

Tuesday gives oil bulls some hope, but is this the short of a lifetime in crude oil?

September crude oil closed higher [107.38] on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If September extends the rally off April's low, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 108.93. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 109.45. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 106.33. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 102.75.

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Free Replay of "How to use Fibonacci Analysis in your Trading" with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden

Our wildly popular webinar from last week was over subscribed so our trading partner John Carter at Simpler Options has decided to offer it one last time Tuesday July 23rd at 2 p.m. eastern standard time.

In this Free webinar replay Carolyn Boroden and John Carter will discuss:

*      How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*     The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*     The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs

........ and much more

Simply fill out this simple registration form and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

See you on Tuesday!

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

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Halliburton Announces Second Quarter Income and Earnings HAL

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) announced today that income from continuing operations for the second quarter of 2013 was $677 million, or $0.73 per diluted share. This compares to income from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2013 of $624 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, excluding a $637 million charge, after-tax, or $0.68 per diluted share, to increase a reserve related to the Macondo litigation.

Halliburton's total revenue in the second quarter of 2013 was a company record of $7.3 billion, compared to $7.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. Operating income was $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2013, compared to operating income of $902 million in the first quarter of 2013, adjusted for the Macondo charge. For the first quarter of 2013, reported loss from continuing operations was $13 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, and reported operating loss was $98 million.

“I am pleased with our second quarter results, as total company revenue of $7.3 billion was a record quarter for Halliburton,” commented Dave Lesar, chairman, president and chief executive officer.

“Looking at our product lines, Baroid, Cementing, Completion Tools, Multi-Chem, and Testing set quarterly revenue records, while Baroid, Testing, and Artificial Lift all set quarterly operating income records.

“Relative to our primary competitors, we have delivered leading year-over-year international revenue growth for five consecutive quarters. Eastern Hemisphere operations grew revenue 11% sequentially, resulting from record revenues in both of our regions, and operating income was up 23%.

“Middle East / Asia, our fastest growing market, improved revenue 12% and operating income 17% sequentially. This across the board growth was led by higher stimulation, wireline, and fluids activity in Malaysia, and improved sales in China.

Read the entire Halliburton earnings report


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18.23% Return Produced During July Option Expiration Cycle

As we move through the July monthly option expiration which will occur on July 19, 2013 at the close of business we can look back at the expiration cycle that was. The end of the June monthly option expiration nearly marked the recent market lows. Since the beginning of the July expiration cycle we have seen the S&P 500 Index charge higher.

The recent performance in the Options Trading Signals portfolio has charged higher as well. There were 4 trades that were closed during the July expiration cycle. The 4 trades that were closed had a total gross gain of $169 per spread. The total risk assumed in the 4 closed trades was $927. Thus, the four trades produced a gross return on maximum risk of 18.23%.

A trader that risked roughly $2,500 per spread would have had a gross gain of $1,951 for the month of July. The table below demonstrates the trades that were closed during this expiration cycle.



In full disclosure, there were three trades that were rolled forward as price action did not accommodate trade expectations. However, the overall results of the OTS Portfolio since the beginning of the June expiration cycle have been outstanding. The full trade performance is shown below based on actual trading results from the portfolio.



Since the beginning of the June monthly option expiration cycle, the Portfolio has closed 15 total trades. In that time frame only 1 trade has produced a loss and that trade essentially was breakeven overall. The total recent trading results speak for themselves.

Since inception, the OTS Portfolio has taken 171 trades publicly that have been opened and closed. Of the 171 trades executed, 125 trades have produced gains. This equates to over a 73% success rate for all trades that have been opened and closed for the OTS Portfolio since late 2010. It is not a coincidence that the typical probability of success that I focus on for the service is between 60% – 80% probability at the time of trade entry.

Overall, the OTS Portfolio continues to generate strong trading returns while providing members with an opportunity to look over a professional trader’s shoulder to watch how trades are evaluated and when they are taken and why.

The OTS portfolio strategy is focused on a mathematical approach to trading options that gives traders a probability based edge. No more red and green arrows, no more charts with 500 indicators, and no more confusion. The system used is simple and has proven that strong trading results are possible when simple discipline is applied.

If you are looking for a mathematical and statistical based approach to trading, Options Trading Signals service may be a perfect fit to improve your option trading results.  


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Per Wullf to succeed Fredrik Halvorsen as Chief Executive Officer at SeaDrill SDRL

The Board of Seadrill has today announced that Per Wullf will succeed Fredrik Halvorsen as Chief Executive Officer of Seadrill Management Limited. Mr. Halvorsen has decided to leave Seadrill to join Ubon Partners, a technology venture.

Mr. Wullf has worked for Seadrill since February 2009 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to Seadrill, he held several senior positions in Maersk, most recently as Managing Director of Maersk Contractors in Norway. He has 33 years of experience in the drilling industry, including 17 years in international and offshore operations.

John Fredriksen, Chairman of the Board of Directors said, "The Board would like to express its thanks to Fredrik Halvorsen for his contribution to the Fredriksen group of companies since he joined us in 2010. His track record of managing organizational change brought a much needed skillset to our businesses, including the successful transition of Seadrill Management from Norway to London this year. Mr. Halvorsen will leave the Company at the end of July, and we wish him all the best in the technology venture.

"Since joining Seadrill in 2009, Mr. Wullf's focus on operational performance during a period of phenomenal growth has allowed Seadrill to establish a track record of delivering safe and efficient operations for its customers. He has established strong relationships and an excellent reputation among our major customers and vendors.

"In his new position, Mr. Wullf will retain a strong focus on the operational performance of the fleet, and for the time being will also retain his position as the Company's Chief Operating Officer. Some functions which have previously been a part of the CEO's responsibilities such as investor presentations, corporate transactions, and financing will to a large extent be assumed by the CFO Rune Magnus Lundetrae and the CAO Rob Hingley-Wilson. This is being done in order for Mr. Wullf to maintain maximum focus on Seadrill's expansion and operation.

"The Board, including myself, will continue to be very actively involved in the strategic development of the Company as well as monitoring the Company's operation. With his strong track record, Mr. Wullf is a natural choice for the Board to ensure a smooth transition and bring Seadrill to the next level. Together with the support of his first class team and the industry's most modern equipment, we look forward to continued success and growth."

Seadrill has a versatile fleet comprising of 62 units, including newbuilds under construction. The fleet operates across five continents supported by over 7,500 employees worldwide.


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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) today increased its quarterly cash distribution per common unit to $1.32 ($5.28 annualized) payable on Aug. 14, 2013, to unitholders of record as of July 31, 2013. This represents a 7 percent increase over the second quarter 2012 cash distribution per unit of $1.23 ($4.92 annualized) and is up from $1.30 per unit ($5.20 annualized) for the first quarter of 2013. KMP has increased the distribution 48 times since current management took over in February 1997.

Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder said, “KMP had a strong second quarter as our stable and diversified assets continued to grow and produce incremental cash flow. Our five business segments produced approximately $1.337 billion in segment earnings before DD&A and certain items, up 39 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Growth was spearheaded by the drop downs from Kinder Morgan, Inc. associated with its acquisition of El Paso Corporation last year, contributions from the midstream assets we recently acquired in the Copano Energy transaction, strong oil production in our CO2 segment and good results at our Products Pipelines business.

Looking forward, we see exceptional growth opportunities across all of our business segments, as there is a need to build additional midstream infrastructure to move or store oil, gas and liquids from the prolific shale plays in the United States and the oilsands in Alberta, along with increasing demand for CO2, which is used for enhanced oil recovery. We currently have identified approximately $13 billion in expansion and joint venture investments at KMP and we are pursuing customer commitments for additional projects.”

Read the entire KMP earnings report.



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Free Webinar: An evening with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Time is running out to get your seat for Wednesdays webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden and John Carter of Simpler Options. So sign up now!

For years Carolyn Boroden has been using and teaching fund managers Fibonacci based market geometry and symmetry that provides the edge needed to succeed in choosing your entry and exits points for your biggest trades. And you can easily use these methods whether you are trading stocks, currencies, ETFs or commodities.

In this Free webinar Carolyn and John will show us......

*     How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*    The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*    The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs .... and much more

Simply click here and fill out your email address, click submit and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

Get your seat now for "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading"

See you on Wednesday,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Why Great Stocks Drop Hard and Reverse

Institutional sell programs and bots cause disruptions with David Banister, Chief Strategist at the Active Trading Partners......

One thing that will always over rule charts and technical analysis is fundamentals in the long run. To be sure, I love technical analysis but I always combine my work there with fundamental research. I rarely if ever buy a stock just because the chart looks nice, that is almost always a recipe for disaster.

With that said, how many times have you seen a good company with strong fundamentals and a seemingly great looking chart break down over 1-2 weeks and take everyone out of the trade? Then for sure, the stock reverses right back up all the way back to where the decline began? To make matters worse, this happens without any real news or any bad news as it were. What is it that causes these crazy down the mountain and up the mountain moves anyways?

Insitutional Sell Programs— sometimes referred to as “Bots” or “Algo” program trading

How does it work?

In an apparently strong fundamental growth stock with no apparent issues, an institution will have a pre-defined price at which point instructions are triggered to liquidate the entire position almost at any price once that price point is hit. They protect themselves ahead of time with Puts, which give them profits if the targeted stock drops hard while they are selling out of the position, thereby locking in their targeted sell price.

Lets take several examples, here's the 3 month charts to show you exactly how they look on paper.



Free Webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading" this Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Continuous Commodity Index Points to Rally in Gold & Silver

During the recent weeks we have seen commodities especially precious metals continue to drop in value. Market participant sentiment has become more bearish on commodities and couple that with a rising dollar it’s no wonder why we continue to see commodities as a whole fall in value.

Money has been flowing out of bonds at record levels this summer telling us most of market participants are feeling bullish on the stock market. This shift in sentiment of the masses are typical as they move their money from the risk on safer assets (bonds & commodities) and rotate into risk-on assets like stocks. While this is a bearish (contrarian sign) stocks could easily continue to rally for an extended period of time and possibly several more months before they actually top out.

Just click here and we'll take a look at the financial market business cycle diagram.



Don't miss this weeks Free Webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden. Just click here to attend "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading" Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Free Webinar: How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

For years Carolyn Boroden has been using Fibonacci based market geometry and symmetry that provides the edge needed to succeed in choosing your entry and exits points for your biggest trades. And you can easily use these methods whether you are trading stocks, currencies, ETFs or commodities.

In this Free webinar Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden and "Simpler Options" John Carter will show us......

*     How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*    The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*    The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs .... and much more

Simply click here and fill out your email address, click submit and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

Watch "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading"

See you on Wednesday,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader