Crude Oil and Natural Gas Technical Outlook For Tuesday Morning

Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's rally is still in progress today and reaches as high as 81.99 so far, just shy of 82.0 high. At this point, further rise is still expected as long as 79.12 support holds. Firm break of 82.0 will confirm that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has resumed and should target next key resistance level at 90. On the downside, break of 79.12 will argue that a short term top is formed, possibly with bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for pull back to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 78.28) and below.

In the bigger picture, the strong rally from 68.59 and sustained trading above 55 days EMA argues that whole medium term rise from 2009 low of 33.2 is still in progress for another high above 82.0. Above this 82.0 will target next key cluster resistance level at 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24, which is close to 90 psychological level. Nevertheless, we'll continue to look for reversal signal as rise from 33.2, which is treated as correction to whole fall from 147.27, is expected to conclude inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone. On the downside, though, break of 68.59 is needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook will be neutral at worst even in case of deep pull back.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Nymex Natural Gas (NG)

Natural gas continues to consolidate below 6.035 today and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Some more sideway trading could be seen but after all, we'd expect 5.29 resistance turned supprot, which is close to 38.2% retracement of 4.157 to 6.035 at 5.319, to hold and bring rally resumption. Break of 6.035 will target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 next.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 13.69 is treated as part of the long term consolidation pattern that started at 15.78 back in 2005 and might have completed at 2.409 already. Rise from 2.409 is still in progress and should target 38.2% retracement of 13.694 to 2.409 at 6.72 and beyond. On the downside, break of 4.157 support is needed to indicate that medium term rise from 2.409 has completed. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at worst even in case of deep pullback.....Nymex Natural Gas Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share