Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil, Gold and Silver Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil, gold and silver. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading lower for the 4th consecutive trading session hitting new contract lows at 44.98 a barrel as I’ve been recommending a short position in yesterday trade around the $48 level & if you took that trade continue place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 52.40 risking around $7 dollars or $3,500 per mini contract plus slippage and commission.

Prices in my opinion are headed sharply lower as prices are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving as prices were consolidating over the last six weeks but you’re going to have to be patient in this trade as the 10 day high will not be lowered for another five days so continue to play this to the downside taking advantage of any rallies maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

The U.S dollar is sharply higher again this week pushing many of the commodity markets including the S&P 500 lower which has been very resilient until recently as there seems to be a worldwide slowdown occurring as the commodity markets all look weak so continue to trade with the trend as I don’t know how low prices can go but I do think in my opinion prices are headed lower as whenever a commodity makes a new contract low that’s not a good sign if you are in a bullish position.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Gold futures in the April contract settled in New York last Friday at $1,164 an ounce while currently trading at 1,156 down about 8 dollars for the trading week in a relatively nonvolatile trading session still trading below its 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I have been recommending a short position as of last Friday and if you took that trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,214 risking around $2,400 per mini contract, however the chart structure will start to improve dramatically next week lowering the stop loss.

The problem with gold at current time is the fact that the U.S dollar is sharply higher this week once again continuing to put pressure on the commodity markets as I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon as the next level of support is 1,130 – 1,140 & if that level is broken you would have to think that gold prices will trade below 1,100 and if you look at platinum prices they are hitting another contract low so I think gold will catch up to platinum to the downside.

Many of the commodity markets continue to go lower as well with crude oil prices retesting contract lows once again also pressuring the precious metals as the trend is your friend and I continue to think that there is no reason to own gold at this time so continue to sell as well as maintaining the proper amount of contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

Silver futures in the May contract settled last Friday at 15.80 while currently trading in New York at 15.50 down about $.30 for the trading week hitting a four month low while breaking critical support at 15.55 an ounce as I’m recommending a short position in this market & if you took this trade place your stop loss above the 10 day high which was lowered to 16.58 risking around $1,100 per mini contract plus slippage and commission, however the chart structure will tighten up considerably next week.

I sound like a broken record as I’m pessimistic the entire commodity market due to the fact that the U.S dollar hit a 12 year high once again as I do think prices can retest the December 1st 2014 low of 14.70 an ounce as I see no reason to own the precious metals at this time especially with higher interest rates on the horizon and an incredibly strong U.S dollar both very pessimistic fundamental indicator towards the precious metals and silver prices as a whole.

Silver futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside and if 14.70 is broken you can see a freefall in prices possibly down around the 12.50 level in the next 6 to 8 weeks as the trend is getting stronger on a weekly basis.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving


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He's Back....Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures in the April contract are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the short term trend is to the downside however I have been recommending investors to sit on the sidelines in this market as prices have been in a tight consolidation trading between $48 – $55 for the last five weeks as I’m waiting for another trend to develop.

Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 49.76 a barrel while currently trading at 49.70 basically unchanged but currently down $1.00 this Friday as the U.S dollar is up 130 points putting pressure on many of the commodity markets. At the current time there is a struggle between the bulls and bears as deflation is a worldwide concern, however the U.S monthly unemployment number came in very strong which could increase demand especially when you’re starting to enter a strong driving season which can push prices higher however sit on the sidelines and wait for a trend to occur making sure that you risk 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the chart structure currently is outstanding so a breakout is looming in my opinion.

Oil prices are consolidating over the last month or so after falling from around $90 and that is understandable as prices could go sideways for several more months but as a trader I want to follow the trend and this trend is mixed at the current time so look at other markets.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: Excellent

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Gold futures in the April contract are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside after settling last Friday at 1,213 while trading at 1,172 down $22 this Friday afternoon as the monthly unemployment report was construed as bullish sending gold to a 9 week low.

The U.S dollar is hitting another contract high up 110 points putting pressure on the precious metals as I'm currently recommending a short position in the mini contract which is $33 for every dollar move while placing your stop above the 10 day high which currently stands 1,223 risking around 50 points or $1800 per contract plus slippage and commission.

In my opinion I believe the U.S dollar will continue its bullish trend and therefore should continue putting bearish pressure on gold and silver prices here in the short term as the next level of support is at 1,165 and if that is breached I think that we test the contract low around 1,130 so continue to play this to the downside as the chart structure will start to improve later next week tightening the stop and reducing monetary risk.

Many of the commodity and stock markets were lower today due to the fact that United States treasury bonds plummeted this afternoon sending yields higher as now the speculation is that the Federal Reserve will start to raise rates in June which is another pessimistic fundamental indicator towards gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Solid

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Mike Seerys Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Market Summary

We've asked our trading partner Michael Seery to give our readers a weekly recap of the futures market. He has been a senior analyst for close to 15 years and has extensive knowledge of all of the commodity and option markets.

Here's Mikes call on crude oil and gold. Read more of his calls for this week by visiting here.

Crude oil futures are trading above their 20 but still below their 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is mixed as I have been advising clients to sit on the sidelines until volatility slows down which could take some time. Crude oil futures settled last Friday at 53.67 a barrel while currently trading around 51.20 in the April contract down around $2.50 for the trading week.

The chart structure is starting to improve as prices have been trading between 50-55 in the last 2 weeks looking to breakout soon so keep a close eye on this market as a breakout above $55 could be in the cards but be patient as the trend is still choppy with no short term trend which does not meet my criteria to enter.

The API report came out yesterday stating that we had 14 million barrels in storage versus the 3 million estimate sending prices down over $2 as the fundamentals still remain bearish as currently there is still an oversupply issue in the short term.
Trend: Mixed
Chart Structure: OK

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Gold futures in the April contract settled last Friday at 1,227 while currently at 1,207 down about $20 for the trading week still trading below their 20 & 100 moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as prices have hit a 6 week low. I am currently sitting on the sidelines awaiting better chart structure to develop as investors continue to put money into the equity market as gold seems to be entering into a bearish trend once again in my opinion.

The next level of major support is around the 1,180 level and if that level is broken I would have think that a retest of the contract low which was hit in early November 2014 could be in the cards so keep a close eye on this trade because a trade could be coming if chart structure improves and that could happen next week.

Problems around the world seem to be out of the lime light at the current time as I don’t see any real reason to own gold as I remain bullish the S&P 500 as the U.S dollar continues to hover around 11 year highs as I think the dollar is in a secular bull market for some time to come as Europe’s economy is not as strong as the United States as that’s also a negative fundamental influence on gold prices.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Poor

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Weekly Crude Oil and Gold Summary with Mike Seery

Crude oil futures are lower this Friday afternoon currently trading in the February contract at 52.60 a barrel after hitting new lows earlier in the trading session trading as low as $52 a barrel and if you’re still short this market the chart structure is improving tremendously so continue to place your stop loss at the 10 day high which stands at 58.53 and that stop will be lowered next week as well as volatility certainly has slowed down in recent weeks due to the holidays.

Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is to the downside as I never try to catch a falling knife as this market continues to move lower and that is why I will continue to move my stop to the 10 day high allowing you to try to take advantage of much of the move as possible as nobody knows how low prices could go.

The problem with oil is two fold as the 1st is that we have record supplies and the 2nd is the U.S dollar is hitting another all time year high once again pushing most commodity prices lower but it’s really all about the oversupply issue as the United States is now an exporter with record domestic supplies at the current time, however if you are currently not short this market you have missed the boat and I would sit on the sidelines and look for another market at the current time.

Ever since Thanksgiving when the Saudis announced that they will not cut production prices have been in a free fall and that’s terrific for consumers as gasoline prices in many parts of the country are under $2 a gallon which is remarkable in my opinion happening in such a quick period of time, however prices have been lower in the past so do not try to buy this market in my opinion as I still remain bearish.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Outstanding

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Gold futures in the February contract witnessed another extremely volatile trading session with another $20 trading range currently trading up $4 at 1,188 after trading as low as 1,167 earlier in the session as the U.S dollar hit another multi-year high pressuring many the commodity prices, however bottom feeders appeared thinking that gold was overdone to the downside.

Gold futures are trading below their 20 and 100 day moving average as I am currently sitting on the sidelines in this market waiting for better chart structure to develop as the market is just too volatile in my opinion, however if you are bearish this market I would sell at today’s price while placing my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 1,210 risking around $23 or $2,300 per contract plus slippage and commission as the chart structure is relatively solid at the current time.

Gold futures remain in a long term downtrend as investors are still putting money into the S&P 500 and out of the precious metals especially with a strong U.S dollar which looks to head higher in my opinion and with worldwide problems cooling down especially with Russia there’s really no reason to own gold at the current time.

Gold futures traded over the last 2 months in a price range between $1,140-$1,240 and now around mid-range so I’m waiting for a trend to develop as traders are waiting next Friday’s monthly unemployment report which should send even more volatility into this market so make sure if you are in the futures market that you use the proper amount contracts risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as this market is high risk.
Trend: Lower
Chart Stucture: Excellent

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How Does Your Game Plan for Crude Oil and Commodities Stack Up Against This

Our trading partner John Carter sent us this reminder this week. It addresses what's really on the table in the coming months and what you are going to miss out on if you don't take a few minutes and take advantage of what he has to say........Here's what John is saying.

With the markets closed I wanted to take the time to write you this important message. As you may know I've been a full time trader for the last 15 years.

A few years ago I founded Simpler Options to post my options trading ideas. In a short time it has become one of the largest and most recognized options research companies in the world. We serve over 100,000 subscribers in over 100 countries.

You may know about a few of my big trades. 

I caught the big move in oil last year:

I traded Tesla earlier this year to the tune of $1 million in one day:

But that's not why I'm emailing you. 

I reference the success and experience with trading only because there is an even bigger trading opportunity lurking. A once a decade shift in the market that will result in the next great wealth creation - for those that know about it.

What I am going to say you will not read anywhere else.  It flies in the face of every newsletter out there I know about.  In fact, I've already received dozens of hate mail. But just remember.....

Only a few people believed me last year when I said oil would go from $90 to $110 in just a few months. One person that believed me was billionaire Richard Branson.  I help him with Virgin Airlines hedge their oil:

Only a few people believed me about Tesla.

But, when the big trade happened the traders who had prepared themselves followed me into the trade. One of our clients made $250,000 on that one trade. And that brings us to today......

Big opportunities always disguise themselves in different clothes.  Not everyone can recognize the opportunity.  That is why other services are still speaking about doom and gloom.  This is not 2008 anymore. 

The fact is markets go through cycles.  There are major cycles and minor cycles. The market is at a crossroad between the end of a major bear market cycle since 2000.  And, the end of a minor bull market cycle since 2009.  

I'll explain the driver of this crossroad.  As for me, I am more certain about this once in a decade shift than I've been about anything else in my life. 

The Great American Revival

In short, I believe that Americans are about to see a major shift in the value of the dollar. We have gotten a glimpse of this since the summer.  The US dollar index went from 79.74 to as high as 88.44.  That is a huge move.  In the previous 2 years - 2012 & 2013 - the dollar moved only half as much. 

The dollar index impacts everything.

The commodity markets like gold, silver, and oil.  

The treasury markets.  

The stock markets around the world. 

They all rely on the U.S. Dollar. 

The dollar index impacts the price of gas at the pump.  Have you been noticing gas prices going down? Doesn't the extra 20 bucks you save at the pump feel good? In spite of the global economic crisis the dollar remains the world's reserve currency.

The bank of Japan is still printing money faster than any other country in the world.  Yet they are on the verge of another recession. The EU has rates at 0% and are speaking about ramping up the printing press.  China announced a surprise rate cut days ago! 

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has been tightening the printing press. They are also talking of rate hikes next year. The exact opposite of what the next 3 largest economies in the world are doing!

The rise of the dollar and the opportunity is at its infancy.  In 2015 you can set you and your family up to be the recipient of the wealth shift.  Millions of people around the world will not see this coming and fall behind. The impact this will have is wide reaching.  It will impact every market around the globe.  I want to share with you the best way to maximize this opportunity.  

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).

The world's smartest investor knows about the power of ETFs.  Warren recently advised his heirs, "Put my estate in index funds."

ETFs allow you to buy or short almost any stock market in the world.  You can buy or short any commodity or precious metal. Want to play the downside in your retirement account?  You can buy an ETF that shorts a market in a retirement account.  

So how can you begin creating wealth right away?

This Saturday I'll be teaching a timely class on trading Options on ETFs called the Wealth Creator.

($997 Value)

In this class I'll share:

* Why I believe the dollar will continue to rise.

* What ETFs to watch and buy in the following year.

* The easiest way to profit from the rise in the dollar. 

* How to time this event so whether you're a short or long term trader you can profit. 

Also, there are 3 full mentorship days of live trading and teaching the following week.  The importance of these 3 days are too many to count.

Last month we did a sold out mentorship in Las Vegas where attendees paid $5,000. 

The Wealth Creator class and mentorship will sell out on its own. But, this is such a critical time in the market I don't want anyone to miss this opportunity in 2015.

So I decided to put together a special bonus package for anyone that buys the Wealth Creator class and mentorship. 

I'm going to give you access to:

Bonus #1: My Plan or Get Slaughtered training class. 

($997 Value)

On December 31st join me for an all day trading and planning session. 

The old saying, "If you fail to plan, you plan to fail" is never more true in trading.

During this class:

* Concentrate on creating a viable trading plan for 2015

* Design a plan that can achieve your objectives

* Create crystal clear trading rules for you to follow in 2015

* Set concrete action steps to drive your trading goals

Learn to do the critical thinking and planning to develop the best options strategies for your trading success

I did this on January 1st, 2014 and weeks later I had the $1 million trade in Tesla.  This year we will develop a trading plan for 2015 together. 

Bonus #2: Follow up Q & A webinar. 

($297 Value)

Early 2015 we will have a follow up class to review the markets and your trading plan.  You’ve had a chance to apply the strategies in the live markets so now is your chance to ask follow up questions. This is the time when I can update you on any new market forces that you need to be aware of so you can continue your trading success. 

Register here:

Simpler Options "Wealth Creator".....Webinar Replay

My commitment is to help as many investors as I can for the next great wealth shift.  I hope everyone takes advantage of this opportunity.  The reality is, the fewer the people the better. We have an amazing team of people here who have the same goal as I do.  

Since starting Simpler Options a few years ago, we have helped a lot of people become better traders. 

"I have never had an experience like this before. We have 3 small trading accounts totaling just over $100k (at least that was the case on Monday afternoon). Putting just a portion of that into play (following your rules), I've gained just over $30k in 3 days!"

"I have to say that I have over 7,000 reasons to be thankful for you guys putting on such a great program!"

"When I saw the advertisement for this training I told my wife I was going to spend the $997 to buy it. Well, I closed out the trade on INVN we did on Monday for a $1300 profit today.  Absolutely the best trade I have had since I started trading."

"My first thirty days, starting June 7th with $47,887.87 in my account. By July 3rd my account was $ 73,188.38 produced a nice impressive 52.83% return - Not to shabby. :-)"

Believe me, nothing makes me feel better than receiving notes like these.  It's my crack. But I have to tell you, right now, I am worried about a lot of our subscribers. We have many, many hard- working people who are going to get caught by surprise. You can either let things happen to you..... or you can take a few simple steps and take charge of your family's fate.

To get started, click on the link below:

Simpler Options "Wealth Creator".....Webinar Replay

We'll see you next week in the markets putting some of this to work,

Ray C. Parrish

aka the Crude Oil Trader

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Week Ending Crude Oil, Gold and Coffee Markets Summary for Friday November 21st

Our trading partner Mike Seery brings us his weekly call on crude oil, gold and coffee. Could crude oil really be headed lower? If king dollar gets it's way it just might be headed much lower. Here's what Mike has to say about this and other futures commodity trades.

Crude oil futures are up 30 cents in the January contract trading higher for the 2nd consecutive trading session as a short term bottom may have been placed as China cut their interest rate today sending crude oil sharply higher in early trade trading as high as 77.82 a barrel before retracing while currently trading at 76.22 if you are still short this market I would place my stop above the 10 day high which in Monday’s trade will come down to 77.92 risking around 170 points or $1,700 per contract. The U.S dollar was sharply higher and that’s generally very bearish the commodity markets, however with China cutting their interest rate that combated the negativity coming out of the Euro currency causing short covering across the board as many of the commodities including energies, metals, and the grain sector were all higher today but continue to place your stop loss at that level and see what Monday’s trade brings. The fundamentals in oil still remain very bearish as Saudi Arabia has not cut production & the United States continues its torrid pace of production flooding the world market so even if you are stopped out on this trade sit on the sidelines and wait for another trend to develop as I’m not totally convinced that lower prices aren’t ahead in 2015. Crude oil futures are still trading slightly below their 20 but still far below their 100 day moving average telling you the trend is still to the downside and if the U.S dollar continues to move higher that eventually will put pressure on prices once again in my opinion but on a day to day basis anything can occur.
TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: EXCELLENT

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As I talked about in yesterday’s blog I am telling investors to remain neutral as I do believe gold prices will remain choppy to lower for the rest of 2014 as prices rallied $9 to trade around $1,200 per ounce as extreme volatility has entered this market and I think today’s price action was very impressive due to the fact that the U.S dollar was up over 50 points which is generally very bearish precious metals, however China cut their interest rate pushing many commodities prices higher. Gold futures are trading above their 20 but below their 100 day moving average moving higher despite the fact that the ECB looks like they’re going to utilize more stimulus which is remarkable in my opinion as I do think if the U.S dollar continues to move higher eventually that will be very bearish gold prices so sit on the sidelines as you do not want to trade a choppy market. This market is extremely volatile with big up price swings and down swings so avoid and move on to a trendy market like the S&P 500. Volatility in gold is amazing lately with many days of a $30 – $50 trading range which is incredible going into the holiday season, however if you remember last year gold’s low was near December 31st and we opened up the next day around $20 higher and I think the same thing will happen because of the fact that stock sales which are losers are sold to offset winning trades come the month of December so I still look for another leg down but still would sit on the sidelines at the current time. TREND: NEUTRAL
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

In this free video John shares his favorite ETF trading strategies and talks about the upcoming price move in the dollar.......Just Click Here

Coffee futures in the March contract sold off around 600 for the trading week currently trading at 190.70 in New York with high volatility in the last week with several sharply higher and lower trading sessions as I am advising investors to stay away from this market as the trend is extremely choppy and difficult to trade successfully in my opinion. Coffee prices are trading right at their 20 & 100 day moving average telling you that the trend is neutral as this volatility will remain for months to come as weather in Brazil is very fickle on a week to week basis as drought concerns are still in the back of traders’ minds as the weather currently is positive for production. The chart structure in coffee presently is very poor as I like to trade markets with tight chart structure which allows you to place tighter stop losses lowering monetary risk in my opinion. TREND: MIXED
CHART STRUCTURE: POOR

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Surging U.S. Dollar Brings High Volatility in Crude Oil, Gold, Silver and Grains

Crude oil futures in the December contract rallied $.65 to finish around 78.60 a barrel after hitting multi-year lows this week at 76.00 and if you’re still short this market I would place my stop above the 10 day high which currently stands at 82.88 a barrel which is around $4 away or $4,000 risk per contract as chart structure is starting to improve on a daily basis. Crude oil futures are trading far below their 20 & 100 day moving averages as prices rose today on rumors of a Saudi Arabia explosion sending prices sharply higher at one point, however I think this is just a dead cat bounce so continue to play this to the downside making sure you place the proper stop loss risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade as the trend clearly is to the downside.

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The U.S dollar was up again this week and continues to surge to the upside and I do believe that the foreign currencies continue to move lower while continuing to pressure crude oil and many of the other commodity prices such as gold, silver, and the grain market, however every market does need a kickback so take advantage of any rally in tomorrow’s trade as I still think oversupply and a strong dollar take this market sharply lower here in the short term.

As I’ve talked about in many previous blogs I have missed this trade to the downside but one of my theories was the fact that the United States government wants lower oil prices not only to help the U.S consumer but to punish Russia which has sanctions and their whole economy is based off of strong crude oil prices so this is the double whammy to Russia and I think this will continue for some time to come.

On Tuesday the Republicans gained power in the Senate and have control in the House and that is rumored to be very bearish crude oil prices as the Keystone pipeline could now take affect which have been blocked by the Democrats and will make the United States even more oil independent and put pressure on prices in the short term as the fundamentals in this market are absolutely terrible. The volatility is very high in crude at the present time so make sure that you trade the proper amount of contracts risking only 2% of your account balance on any given trade because you need to have an exit strategy when you are wrong.
Trend: Lower
Chart Structure: Improving

See you in the markets Monday!
Mike Seery

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How Low Can Crude Oil Go?

Our trading partner Mike Seery is laying out his bearish view on crude oil. How low can it go?

Crude oil futures in the November contract are down $1.50 a barrel currently trading at 89.53 right near two year lows with extreme choppiness over the last several weeks with many rallies and sell offs as I’ve been sitting on the sidelines but now the trend clearly is to the downside, however the chart structure is terrible at the current time so I am not taking a short at this time, however if you are interested in selling this market I would sell a futures contract at today’s price of 89.53 while placing my stop above $95 risking around $5,500 per contract.

The chart structure is very poor as volatility is extremely high but I am certainly not recommending anybody to buy this market as I do think prices are headed lower and if the chart structure improves in the next couple of days I will take a shot at the downside as we are awash in supplies worldwide plus the fact that the U.S dollar hit 2 year highs today as I see oil prices possibly heading down to the $80 level here in the next couple of months due to the fact of low demand and the fact that many of the commodity markets continue bearish trends as deflation is a problem not inflation.

The fact that prices are not rallying with havoc over in the mid East as oil used to rally sharply on problems in the Middle East but now the U.S is an exporter of oil so these ISIS events are not as important as they used to be so continue to sell any type of rally while placing your stop loss properly risking 2% of your account balance on any given trade.

TREND: LOWER
CHART STRUCTURE: TERRIBLE

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Mid Week Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold

November crude oil closed higher on Wednesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 95.07 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 85.77 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 94.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 95.07. First support is is the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 90.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2011 rally crossing at 85.77.

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November natural gas closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last week's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the late August high crossing at 4.163 are needed to confirm an upside breakout of the late summer trading range. If November extends the decline off last week's high, July's low crossing at 3.786 is the next downside target. Closes below July's low crossing at 3.786 would confirm a downside breakout of the late summer trading range. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 4.100. Second resistance is the late August high crossing at 4.163. First support is the reaction low crossing at 3.812. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.786.

Here's Proof You Are Trading Like a Drooling Dog

December gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If December extends the decline off July's high, the December 2013 low crossing at 1185.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1247.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1228.00. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1247.90. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1208.80. Second support is the December 2013 low crossing at 1185.00.

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Is this a "Bearish Outside Reversal" in Natural Gas?

June Natural Gas (NG.M14.E) opened sharply higher in Sunday evenings session, but since the open prices plummeted to a 5 day low. The sell off confirmed a bearish outside reversal ahead of today's U.S. session. June Natural Gas futures remain under pressure from last week's EIA storage report that showed a larger than expected supply build of 82 bcf. Recent weather forecasts have been calling for warmer temperatures across the country which could limit the size of upcoming supply injections.

In recent weeks, we have been in a sideways trend in the June Natural Gas Market as the market decides on which direction it is headed next. The technical analysis in Natural Gas points to bearish in the near term, making way for a potential swing trading opportunity.

In today's trading session, I will be looking to sell June Natural Gas futures at 4.660, or a breach of the 20 Day Moving Average. This breach would confirm the outside reversal in today’s trading session. My first downside target would be 4.500, a recent area of support in the market, at which point I would roll stops to break even. If the 4.500 are is hit, then I would look at 4.380 as my next target, which would be support from the long term trendline. To mitigate risk on the trade, stop loss orders should be placed just above today’s trading range and rolled behind the trade accordingly.

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 Posted courtesy of James Leeney and our trading partners at INO.com



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ETF Trading Newsletter - CORN ALERT

We have been watching the commodities index rally for a few weeks now with natural gas, coffee, sugar, gold, silver and several others jump in price. We have been watching the corn ETF "CORN" which is a basket of several commodities to get a feel for the commodities market as a whole.

While most of the commodities have posted some solid gains, corn has yet to pop in price. Corn looks to be forming a stage 1 basing pattern and the volume/money flowing into this fund suggest new money is moving into corn because it looks as though it will be the last to pop and rally in price.

This is similar to how we entered the silver trade a few weeks back. Everything else in the precious metals sector popped and silver lagged giving us a high probability setup.

Both the short and long term the charts of corn look bullish. As usual I will lock in some gains if we get a pop in the commodity, then let the balance ride with a break even stop. If corn is entering a new bull market phase (Stage 2) I want to hold some long term. There is potential for a 19%-30% rise in value.

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Week Ending Commodities Market Summary - Crude oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Sugar and U.S. Dollar

April crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Today's high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If April extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at 96.76 is the next downside target.Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.62 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 101.62. Second resistance is March's high crossing at 105.22. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at 96.76. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-March rally crossing at 94.93.

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April Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off March's high. Today's high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 4.131 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.632 would confirm that a short term low ghas been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.632. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 5.209. First support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 4.338. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 4.131.

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April gold closed higher on Friday as it extends this year's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1398.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1339.90 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1388.40. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1398.00. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1353.30. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1339.90.

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May coffee closed lower due to profit taking on Friday. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 18.45 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May extends the rally off November's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2011-2013 decline crossing at 23.27 is the next upside target.

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May sugar closed lower on Friday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 17.55 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 16.62 is the next upside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 17.91 would temper the near term bearish outlook.

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The June U.S. Dollar closed lower on Friday. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If June extends the decline off February's high, monthly support crossing at 78.91 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.13 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.13. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 80.74. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 79.37. Second support is monthly support crossing at 78.91.

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Telephone Stocks Hang Up and Autos Run Us Over as Markets Head Lower. Here's our Summary - Gold, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 and Coffee

The DOW closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off January's high. Today's sell off was triggered by a sharp decline in telephone stocks, disappointment over auto sales by Ford and General Motors and reports that Jos. A. Bank Clothiers will not enter into takeover talks.

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The SP500 closed sharply lower [March contract] on Monday and below the 2012-2013 uptrend line crossing near 1744.00 confirming that am intermediate trend change is taking place. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term. If March extends this year's decline, the 25% retracement level of the 25% retracement level of 2012's rally crossing at 1692.03 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1811.38 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1791.33. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1811.38. First support is today's low crossing at 1735.50. Second support is the 25% retracement level of 2012's rally crossing at 1692.03.


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Crude oil closed lower due to profit taking on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off January's low. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 98.47. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the December-January decline crossing at 99.58. First support is today's low crossing at 96.26. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 95.06.

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Natural gas [March contract] closed lower on Monday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a pause in the rally is possible or that a short term top has been posted. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.528 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews this winter's rally, monthly resistance crossing at 6.108 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 5.486. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at 6.108. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.843. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.528.

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Gold closed higher [April contract] on Monday. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If April extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 1215.30 is the next downside target. If April renews the rally off December's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1306.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1280.10. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-December decline crossing at 1306.20. First support is the reaction low crossing at 1230.80. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1215.30.

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Coffee closed sharply higher on Monday [March contract] as it extends this rally off November's low. The high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the rally off November's low, last July's high crossing at 13.80 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 11.87 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Mid Week Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Wheat and Coffee

Crude oil closed sharply higher on Wednesday and above the 10 day moving average crossing at 93.53 signaling that a low might be in or is near. Today's high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the June 2013 low crossing at 89.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 94.82. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.25. First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 91.47. Second support is the June 2013 low crossing at 89.48.

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Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the rally off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing at 4.403 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.213 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.403. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.550. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.213. Second support is last Friday's low crossing at 3.936.

Gold closed lower due to profit taking on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1266.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1223.90 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If April renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1255.20. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1266.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1223.90. Second support is December's low crossing at 1182.30.

Coffee closed lower on Wednesday and the mid range close set the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 11.65 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off November's low, September's high crossing at 12.40 is the next upside target.

Wheat closed lower on Wednesday ending a two day short covering bounce off last Friday's low. Today's low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.98 1/4 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off October's high, weekly support crossing at 5.54 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.98 1/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.12 3/4. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 5.60 1/2. Second support is weekly support crossing at 5.54 3/4.

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Commodities Close the Week on a High Note - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Corn and Coffee

Crude oil closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off last August's high. Today's mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the June 2013 low crossing at 90.05 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.76 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 95.12. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 96.76. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 91.24. Second support is the June 2013 low crossing at 90.05.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 3.897 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.328 would confirm that a short term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.328. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.430. First support is today's low crossing at 3.953. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 3.897.

Gold closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If April extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at 1266.70 is the next upside target. If April renews the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1249.00. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1266.70. First support is December's low crossing at 1182.30. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

Corn closed sharply higher on Friday following today's USDA report. The USDA caught the trade leaning the wrong way after releasing a lower than expected corn crop estimate for 2013's crop production and lower than expected ending stocks. The USDA estimated the 2013 corn crop at 13.925 billion bushels. The USDA juggled its harvested acreage and yields, putting the average for the crop nationwide at 158.8 bpa, which was down 1.6 bpa from its last estimate, though acreage went up 436,000. The USDA came in with a lower than expected figure on Dec. 1st corn inventories, which suggests feed usage in the first quarter of the marketing year was good despite the late harvest. That raised the total forecast for feeding during the marketing year by100 million bushels.

The USDA also increased its forecasted usage for ethanol by 50 million bushels due to strong demand. The increase usage from ethanol was offset by a 50 million bushel decline in other industrial usage, leaving ending stocks at 1.631 billion. Today's key reversal up along with the close above the previous reaction high crossing at 4.30 confirmed that a short term low has been posted. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning neutral signaling additional strength is possible near term. Closes above December's high crossing at 4.40 3/4 are needed to confirm that a seasonal low has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.36. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.40 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at 4.06 1/4. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.99 3/4.

Coffee closed higher on Friday and the high range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at 12.40 is the next upside target. Closes below last Thursday's low crossing at 11.02 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

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Crude Oil Closes Sharply Lower to Start 2014

Crude oil bulls got slaughtered right out of the gate to get 2014 started as crude oil closes sharply lower on Thursday and below the 20 day moving average crossing at 98.23 confirming that a short term top has been posted. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that additional weakness is likely. If February extends this week's decline, November's low crossing at 92.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.77 are needed to temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 98.77. Second resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 100.75. First support is today's low crossing at 95.34. Second support is November's low crossing at 92.10.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's sharp decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If February extends Tuesday's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.403 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.403. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 4.532. First support is today's low crossing at 4.213. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the November-December rally crossing at 4.158.

Gold closed higher on Thursday due to a short covering rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1224.00 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If February extends the decline off August's high, weekly support crossing at 1179.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1224.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1267.50. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1181.40. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1179.40.

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GOLD’s Elliott Wave Analysis Bear Cycle Coming to a Close in December

When it comes to the actual trading aspect in gold our trading partner David A. Banister Market Trend Forecast has been our go to guy. Very interesting what he is bringing us this morning.....Is GOLD’s Elliott Wave Analysis Bear Cycle Coming to a Close in December?


Our Last major Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold came in early September when Gold had touched the 1434 area, and in that analysis we called for a re-test of 1271-1285 levels. This was based on our Elliott Wave Analysis of the patterns involved since the 1923 spot highs in the fall of 2011. Our clients of course were updated on a regular basis since that public analysis and we have been looking for clues to a bottom in this Gold bear cycle from the 2011 highs.

Most recently, we noted that we are seeing patterns commiserate with what Elliott wave theory calls a “truncated 5th wave” pattern. All Bear cycles have 5 full waves to the downside from the highs, and we have been in wave 5 since the 1434 highs. The key then is determining how low that wave 5 will take you in Gold, and planning your investments and timing around that forecast.

To qualify for a truncated 5th wave, you have to have a very strong preceding 3rd wave to the downside. In this case, we had that as Gold dropped from just over 1800 per ounce to 1181 into late June 2013. As we approached the 1181 areas, we also put out a public forecast saying that Gold has indeed bottomed and should rally strong to the upside. Recently, Gold hit a bottom at 1211 spot pricing last week and that is when we began to consider a truncated 5th wave pattern.

We sent our clients about a week ago regarding this possible Elliott wave theory bottom:

If we fast forward a week later, we had Gold running up to 1261 which was the pivot resistance line we told our subscribers to watch for. We hit it on the nose and backed off to 1224 yesterday. We now expect that if GOLD holds the 1211 area, that we will again rally back up and over 1261 and then head to the 1313 resistance zone. We would like to see Gold get over 1313 and if so our targets are in the 1560 ranges for Gold in the first half of 2014.

Aggressive investors should be accumulating quality small cap gold producing and exploration, or Gold itself depending on your preference during these last few weeks of December as our Elliott Wave Analysis is signaling a bottom is near. We would again watch 1211 as a key level to hold for this possible truncated wave 5 to work out.

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COT Week Ending Market Summary - Crude Oil, Natural Gas, SP 500 nad Gold

October crude oil closed lower on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish hinting that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Multiple closes below Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If October renews this summer's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 114.83 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 112.24. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 114.83. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 106.39. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 103.50.

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October Henry natural gas closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If October renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568 would confirm that a short term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.680. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at 3.842. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.568. Second support is August's low crossing at 3.154.

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The December S&P 500 closed higher on Friday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the reaction high crossing at 1684.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 1683.00. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 1684.40. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 1657.60. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1648.00.

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October gold closed sharply lower on Friday extending the decline off August's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If October extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 1272.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40 would temper the near term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 1380.40. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1432.90. First support is today's low crossing at 1304.60. Second resistance is August's low crossing at 1272.10.

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