Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Crude Oil Bull's Continue to Struggle With $82 Dollar Resistance


Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off December's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.

If February extends this rally, the reaction high crossing at 82.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.

First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.99
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing 82.28

First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.23
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 75.85

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Natural gas closed lower on Tuesday and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.580 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If February resumes the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077 is the next upside target.

First resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 6.038
Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of this fall's decline crossing at 6.077

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 5.580
Second support is last Thursday's low crossing at 5.505

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The U.S. Dollar closed higher due to a late day short covering rally on Tuesday but remains below the 10 day moving average crossing at 78.19. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.

Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.60 are needed confirm that a short term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72 is the next upside target.

First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 78.77
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 79.72

First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 77.60
Second support is today's low crossing at 77.39

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