Crude oil was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are also turning neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.34 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Crude oil's pivot point for Wednesday, our line in the sand is 69.91
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 71.65
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 68.12
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 64.34
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The U.S. Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends the rally off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.78 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the Dollar.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.48
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Trading Video “How Low Can The Dollar Go”
Natural gas was higher in overnight trading due to short covering as it consolidates below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.890. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.951 would signal that a short term low has been posted. Closes above last Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off the late May low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
Natural gas pivot point for Wednesday is 3.75
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.89
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.95
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.55
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.50
Free Stock Analysis For UNG
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
Dollar Closes Below 10 Day Moving Average, Sets Up Higher Open For Crude Oil Wednesday
Crude oil closed higher on Tuesday and above the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.34.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77.
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The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term. However, today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.85 tempers the near term friendly outlook in the market.
If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is today's low crossing at 79.70
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
Video: “How Low Can The Dollar Go”
Natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.871
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are turning neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32.
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38.
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.34.
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.77.
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
The U.S. Dollar closed sharply lower on Tuesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off last week's low. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday.
Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are still possible near term. However, today's close below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.85 tempers the near term friendly outlook in the market.
If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target.
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is today's low crossing at 79.70
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
Video: “How Low Can The Dollar Go”
Natural gas closed slightly higher on Tuesday due to light short covering as it consolidated some of Monday's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.871
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.988
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Crude Oil Closes Above $70, First Time Since November
"Crude Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days on Dollar Decline"
Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as the dollar fell against the euro, bolstering the appeal of energy and metals as an alternative investment. Oil advanced more than 3 percent as rising stock prices reduced the need for holding the U.S. currency as a refuge. The U.S. Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that refiners boosted operating rates to meet summer gasoline demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey.....Complete Story
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"Economy, Higher Oil Prices May Restart Shelved Projects"
A rebound in oil prices and signs of economic recovery are renewing interest in exploration and production, but producers are still wary of volatility and determined to cut construction and service costs, which surged last year after oil prices spiked to record levels. Crude oil prices have risen back above $60 a barrel, from a low of around $42 earlier this year, and are expected to rise further in the next few years as supply.....Complete Story
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds....Click Here
"U.S. Senate Panel Approves More Offshore Drilling"
A U.S. Senate panel approved expansion of offshore oil and natural gas drilling, opening more of the eastern Gulf of Mexico to energy development. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee voted 13-10 today in favor of an amendment to expand drilling, as part of its debate over pending energy legislation. Former President George W. Bush removed a presidential moratorium on offshore drilling last year, and Congress let a ban expire after oil prices reached a record $147.27 a barrel. The amendment.....Complete Story
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Crude oil rose for the first time in three days as the dollar fell against the euro, bolstering the appeal of energy and metals as an alternative investment. Oil advanced more than 3 percent as rising stock prices reduced the need for holding the U.S. currency as a refuge. The U.S. Energy Department will probably report tomorrow that refiners boosted operating rates to meet summer gasoline demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey.....Complete Story
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"Economy, Higher Oil Prices May Restart Shelved Projects"
A rebound in oil prices and signs of economic recovery are renewing interest in exploration and production, but producers are still wary of volatility and determined to cut construction and service costs, which surged last year after oil prices spiked to record levels. Crude oil prices have risen back above $60 a barrel, from a low of around $42 earlier this year, and are expected to rise further in the next few years as supply.....Complete Story
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds....Click Here
"U.S. Senate Panel Approves More Offshore Drilling"
A U.S. Senate panel approved expansion of offshore oil and natural gas drilling, opening more of the eastern Gulf of Mexico to energy development. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee voted 13-10 today in favor of an amendment to expand drilling, as part of its debate over pending energy legislation. Former President George W. Bush removed a presidential moratorium on offshore drilling last year, and Congress let a ban expire after oil prices reached a record $147.27 a barrel. The amendment.....Complete Story
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Lower Prices Still Possible For Natural Gas
Natural gas was higher in overnight trading Monday night as it consolidated below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.875. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990 would signal that a short term low has been posted.
Closes above last Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off the late May low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.76
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.875
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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If July extends last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990 would signal that a short term low has been posted.
Closes above last Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off the late May low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
Tuesday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.76
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.875
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 3.990
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Crude Oil Trading Higher, Is $70 Our Near Term High
Crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates around the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
As of 8:51 a.m. eastern standard time Globex traders were trading crude oil at 69.34, very close today's first resistance.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.71 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 67.94
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.23
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.71
4:30 AM ET. June 5 API Oil Industry Report
....Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -828K)
....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +99K)
....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.44M)
....Refinery Runs (previous 82.9%)
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As of 8:51 a.m. eastern standard time Globex traders were trading crude oil at 69.34, very close today's first resistance.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.71 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 67.94
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 67.23
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.71
4:30 AM ET. June 5 API Oil Industry Report
....Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -828K)
....Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous +99K)
....Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +3.44M)
....Refinery Runs (previous 82.9%)
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
Monday, June 8, 2009
Crude Oil Struggles As The U.S. Dollar Closes Higher
Nothing is more important to trading crude oil than the U.S. Dollar. And the Dollar closed higher on Monday, above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.80 confirming that a short term low has been posted, spelling trouble for crude oil bulls.
Profit taking tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.88 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.88
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
If you would like to trade the dollar itself your best choice of tickers would be the UUP. Here is a Free Stock Analysis for UUP.
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Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Profit taking tempered early gains and the low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends the rebound off last week's low, the reaction high crossing at 83.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.88 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.88
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
If you would like to trade the dollar itself your best choice of tickers would be the UUP. Here is a Free Stock Analysis for UUP.
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Natural Gas Closes Lower, Even Lower Prices Still Possible
Natural Gas closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 4.721 are needed to confirm that an important bottom has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.021
Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Want to trade natural gas try ticker UNG. Here is a Free UNG stock analysis.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 4.721 are needed to confirm that an important bottom has been posted.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.021
Second resistance is last Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is last Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 3.500
Want to trade natural gas try ticker UNG. Here is a Free UNG stock analysis.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Crude Oil Falls, Brazil Proposes New Tax, Natural Gas at it's Cheapest
"Crude Oil Falls, Following Stocks Lower, as Dollar Strengthens"
Crude oil fell for a second day, following global equities, as a stronger dollar reduced the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Prices declined as much as 2.4 percent after stocks fell and the U.S. currency gained against the euro for a second day. The stronger currency undermines demand for dollar priced assets such as oil and gold. Oil futures touched a seven-month high of $70.32 on June 5 after a Labor Department report.....Complete Story
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"Brazil to Propose New Tax on Newfound Offshore Oil"
The Brazilian government will propose an additional tax on crude oil produced from the country's newfound offshore deposits, the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper reported Monday. The tax will be part of a new regulatory regime proposed by a government panel studying possible changes to Brazil's oil laws, the report said. The proposals are expected.....Complete Story
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"Natural Gas Cheapest to Oil Since 1992 Signals Gain"
This year’s 31 percent decline in natural gas made it the worst performing commodity and the cheapest next to oil since the fall of the Soviet Union. That’s about to change, if history is any guide. Natural gas lost 72 percent in 11 months as the U.S. fell into the deepest recession in 50 years and drillers failed to idle rigs fast enough to control inventories. Stockpiles are 22 percent larger than the five year average.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Inventories For This Week
Oil prices moved higher last week lead by traders feeling that the economy may be recovering. There is just no real evidence that the recession has even come close bottoming out. Fundamentals do not support the current price of oil, it is inflated as fundamentals have been ignored.
Here is a quick look at crude oil inventories for the last week.....
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Here is a quick look at crude oil inventories for the last week.....
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Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
Stronger Dollar Overnight Threatens Crude Oil Rally On Monday
July crude oil was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Day traders will continue to look for bullish set ups until they fail, and will until we close below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.21. Which is needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.77
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.21
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar was higher overnight and trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.93
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
The S&P 500 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will continue to look for bullish set ups until they fail. Monday's pivot point is 944 but day traders will be looking at 934.50 as a critical level of support to give serious market direction indication. If we break through 944 look for the next daily target of 957.50 as an exit point.
If the overnight strength in the dollar takes the market lower look for the first battle ground at 927.50, the trading hours only previous highs.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.58 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 944
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 957.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 927.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.58
The June S&P 500 Index was down 8.30 points. at 932.20 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Day traders will continue to look for bullish set ups until they fail, and will until we close below the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.21. Which is needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.77
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 66.53
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 63.21
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar was higher overnight and trading above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.82 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 81.53
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.93
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
The S&P 500 was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will continue to look for bullish set ups until they fail. Monday's pivot point is 944 but day traders will be looking at 934.50 as a critical level of support to give serious market direction indication. If we break through 944 look for the next daily target of 957.50 as an exit point.
If the overnight strength in the dollar takes the market lower look for the first battle ground at 927.50, the trading hours only previous highs.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.58 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 944
First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 957.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 927.50
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.58
The June S&P 500 Index was down 8.30 points. at 932.20 as of 6:00 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Sunday, June 7, 2009
And Where The S & P 500 Went, Crude Oil Was Sure To Follow
Well, maybe it won't "always" follow. But let's take a look at this conundrum wrapped in an enigma… that’s the S&P 500 index.
We were just looking at the S&P 500 index as we came to the close for the week of June 6th. While the market appears to be higher for the week, it also appears that we’re losing momentum on the upside.
This can be seen in the second attempt to close over the 950 level. Also some of our momentum indicators are showing negative divergences. This means that while the S&P 500 is making new highs for the move, the momentum indicators are not showing the same configuration and making new highs. This can often be the first clue of a potential market correction.
In this short video on the S&P 500, you’ll will see exactly what we are looking at and why.
The video is free to watch and there is no need to register. We would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets. So please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think.
Just Click Here To Watch The Video
We were just looking at the S&P 500 index as we came to the close for the week of June 6th. While the market appears to be higher for the week, it also appears that we’re losing momentum on the upside.
This can be seen in the second attempt to close over the 950 level. Also some of our momentum indicators are showing negative divergences. This means that while the S&P 500 is making new highs for the move, the momentum indicators are not showing the same configuration and making new highs. This can often be the first clue of a potential market correction.
In this short video on the S&P 500, you’ll will see exactly what we are looking at and why.
The video is free to watch and there is no need to register. We would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets. So please feel free to leave a comment and let our readers know what you think.
Just Click Here To Watch The Video
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Trading Crude Oil Is All About The Dollar, How Low Can It Go?
We were quite amazed when we looked back to see how long it’s been since we had put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. We had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos we had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
Friday, June 5, 2009
Friday's Short Covering Rally Sets The Stage For Steady Open For Monday
Crude oil closed lower on Friday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Thursday's rally. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday.
Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.94
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds Click Here
July natural gas closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 4.721 are needed to confirm that an important bottom has been posted.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this spring's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.90
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go
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Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 70.32
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.94
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82
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July natural gas closed higher on Friday due to short covering as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If July renews last month's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target. Closes above March's high crossing at 4.721 are needed to confirm that an important bottom has been posted.
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.690
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
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The June Dollar closed sharply higher on Friday as it consolidated some of this spring's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.90 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.90
Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.18
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go
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Oil Falls On Stronger Dollar, Russia Says $75 Is Reasonable, Oil Stocks Could Double?
"Oil Falls From a 7 Month High as Dollar Gains on Jobs Report"
Crude oil fell from a seven month high after the dollar strengthened on a government report that showed the U.S. lost fewer jobs in May than forecast. Oil declined as much as 1.9 percent as the U.S. currency strengthened against the euro and yen, reducing demand for commodities as an alternative investment. Prices climbed above $70 for the first time since November after the initial release of the Labor Department report on speculation that the payroll number signaled that the worst of the economic slump is over.....Complete Story
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"Russia Says Oil Price at $75/Barrel Reasonable"
A senior Russia official said Friday that $75 is a reasonable price for per barrel oil and warned that oil output would drop on further credit crunch. "We need at least $75 per barrel," Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the country's top business forum. Sechin forecast that oil production would unlikely fall in the next few years due to mass investment over years, but "an increasingly shrinking access to finances could lead to a decline.".....Complete Story
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"BlackRock’s Rice Says Oil Shares May Double as Crude Climbs"
Daniel Rice, whose BlackRock Energy & Resources Fund rose more than any U.S. equity mutual fund in the past decade, said oil company stocks may double within three years as crude prices climb toward $90 a barrel. The global recession didn’t fundamentally change the demand for energy or affect long term supply constraints, Rice said in a June 2 interview at his Boston office. Coal stocks may triple, he said. Rice’s $808 million fund gained an average of 20 percent a year in the 10 years ended.....Complete Story
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Crude oil fell from a seven month high after the dollar strengthened on a government report that showed the U.S. lost fewer jobs in May than forecast. Oil declined as much as 1.9 percent as the U.S. currency strengthened against the euro and yen, reducing demand for commodities as an alternative investment. Prices climbed above $70 for the first time since November after the initial release of the Labor Department report on speculation that the payroll number signaled that the worst of the economic slump is over.....Complete Story
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"Russia Says Oil Price at $75/Barrel Reasonable"
A senior Russia official said Friday that $75 is a reasonable price for per barrel oil and warned that oil output would drop on further credit crunch. "We need at least $75 per barrel," Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin told reporters on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the country's top business forum. Sechin forecast that oil production would unlikely fall in the next few years due to mass investment over years, but "an increasingly shrinking access to finances could lead to a decline.".....Complete Story
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"BlackRock’s Rice Says Oil Shares May Double as Crude Climbs"
Daniel Rice, whose BlackRock Energy & Resources Fund rose more than any U.S. equity mutual fund in the past decade, said oil company stocks may double within three years as crude prices climb toward $90 a barrel. The global recession didn’t fundamentally change the demand for energy or affect long term supply constraints, Rice said in a June 2 interview at his Boston office. Coal stocks may triple, he said. Rice’s $808 million fund gained an average of 20 percent a year in the 10 years ended.....Complete Story
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Crude Oil Bulls Take Charge On Better Than Expected Unemployment Numbers
July crude oil traded slightly lower Thursday due to profit taking as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally but remains above the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Crude oil's pivot point for Friday is 68.14
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 69.60
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.95
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82
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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this spring's decline but remains below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
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July Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
If July extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.
The pivot point for natural gas for Friday is 3.75
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.053
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
For day traders the first challenge for the bulls will be the 23% retracement at 954.25. Beyond that level the next target would be the swing highs at 960.25. If the market finds a way to put a bad spin on the 9.4% unemployment numbers our target to the down side is 932 would strong support at 929.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.38 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
The SP 500's pivot point for Friday is 937
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 920.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 points. at 944.30 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
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If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Crude oil's pivot point for Friday is 68.14
First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 69.60
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.95
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.82
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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of this spring's decline but remains below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.69
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.84
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Real-Time Forex Click Here
July Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
If July extends this week's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.
The pivot point for natural gas for Friday is 3.75
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.053
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is Thursday's low crossing at 3.550
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
Futures Prices Click Here
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
For day traders the first challenge for the bulls will be the 23% retracement at 954.25. Beyond that level the next target would be the swing highs at 960.25. If the market finds a way to put a bad spin on the 9.4% unemployment numbers our target to the down side is 932 would strong support at 929.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.38 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
The SP 500's pivot point for Friday is 937
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 920.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 910.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.80 points. at 944.30 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Oil Prices Spike Above $70
Oil was steady around $69 a barrel Friday after approaching $70 the day before, when the first drop in U.S. weekly unemployment claims in five months provided another sign that demand for crude could improve. Investors looked to the crucial U.S. payrolls data for May, due later Friday, for more direction. Benchmark crude for July delivery slipped 4 cents to $68.77 a barrel by midday in European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday the contract shot up $2.69 to settle at $68.81 after trading as high as $69.60. Crude's stellar rise it now fetches roughly twice what it did only four months ago in dollar terms is leading analysts to revise forecasts even further upward, with many now saying they expect a barrel to cost $80 or more by year's end.....Complete Story
Thursday, June 4, 2009
ALERT: Buy Signal on Crude Oil 6/04/09
ALERT: Our “Trade Triangle™” technology has us back in crude oil by signaling a buy on crude oil today at a basis of 69.05 for the July contract.
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Goldman Sachs Call For $85 Crude Oil, We Are Taking Profits At $70
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July crude oil closed up $2.66 at $68.78 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven month high on a prediction from Goldman Sachs that crude oil prices would reach $85.00 a barrel this year and $95.00 next year. However, Goldman's track record on oil predictions is spotty. I would not be surprised to see crude oil prices touch the $70.00 a barrel mark and then see a good profit taking pullback. Crude oil bulls have the near term technical advantage. A six week old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.
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July natural gas closed up 9.3 cents at $3.859 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, on short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Bears have the near term technical advantage.
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The September U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 80.00 today. Prices closed near mid range. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report, which is not expected to be bullish, but traders have already factored in a significantly negative jobs loss figure. Do not be surprised to see more consolidative trade in the stock indexes, heading into the summer months, when traders focus more on family vacations and outdoor activities.
July crude oil closed up $2.66 at $68.78 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven month high on a prediction from Goldman Sachs that crude oil prices would reach $85.00 a barrel this year and $95.00 next year. However, Goldman's track record on oil predictions is spotty. I would not be surprised to see crude oil prices touch the $70.00 a barrel mark and then see a good profit taking pullback. Crude oil bulls have the near term technical advantage. A six week old uptrend is still in place on the daily bar chart.
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July natural gas closed up 9.3 cents at $3.859 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, on short covering in a bear market. The key "outside markets" were bullish for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were higher, crude oil prices were sharply higher and the U.S. dollar was weaker. Bears have the near term technical advantage.
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The September U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 80.00 today. Prices closed near mid range. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the near term technical advantage.
Video: How Low Can The Dollar Go?
The U.S. stock indexes closed firmer today. Traders are awaiting Friday's key U.S. jobs report, which is not expected to be bullish, but traders have already factored in a significantly negative jobs loss figure. Do not be surprised to see more consolidative trade in the stock indexes, heading into the summer months, when traders focus more on family vacations and outdoor activities.
Alert: Trade Triangle Technology Signals Exit All Crude Oil Long Positions
ALERT: We have exited all long crude oil swing trade positions today.
Our “Trade Triangle” technology signaled an exit on all long crude oil positions today at 66.23 basis on the July contract.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Our “Trade Triangle” technology signaled an exit on all long crude oil positions today at 66.23 basis on the July contract.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
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Crude Oil Hinting That A Short Term Top May Be In
July crude oil was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short term top might be in or is near.
Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target.
Thursday's pivot point for crude oil is 66.62
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 65.04
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 62.22
10:30 AM ET. May 29 EIA Natural Gas Inventories, in billion cubic feet
Total Working Gas in Storage (previous 2213)
Total Working Gas in Storage (Net Change) (previous +106)
Futures Prices Click Here
The June Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 79.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.99
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.838. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Closes above Tuesday's high are needed to renew the rally off last week's low and would open the door for a possible test of May's high crossing at 4.690.
If July extends Wednesday's decline, last week's low crossing at 3.500 is the next downside target.
Thursday's pivot point for natural gas is 3.87
First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.073
Second resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.284
First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.708
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.500
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The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
It looks like day traders are neutral on the unemployment numbers and looking to play the bull side of the trade. Above the 930 pivot point first sellers should step in 936-939 possibly filling the gap all the way up to 954.75. If we get below the pivot point the target gap fill will be 917.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Thursday's pivot point, out line in the sand is 930
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 908.28
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 3.90 points. at 935.60 as of 6:03 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Crude Oil Tumbles as Supplies Gain, Concerns About Fuel Demand
"Oil Tumbles as Supplies Gain, Fuel Demand Drops to 10 Year Low"
Crude oil fell the most in two weeks after a government report showed that U.S. supplies unexpectedly increased as fuel consumption plunged to a 10-year low.
Inventories climbed 2.9 million barrels to 366 million in the week ended May 29, according to the Energy Department. The gain occurred as imports surged 9.9 percent and refineries increased operating rates to the highest level in six months. Fuel demand fell to the lowest since May 1999. “The high inventories and weak demand we’re seeing don’t justify prices in the $60s,” said Chip Hodge, who oversees a $9 billion natural resource.....Complete Story
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"US Interior to Collect Billions from New O&G Fees in 2010"
The U.S Interior Department has projected $14 billion in revenue collections for fiscal year 2010, stemming from several new and increased fees. A new fee on non producing Gulf of Mexico offshore oil and gas leases would increase revenue by requiring lease holders to pay $4 per acre when leases are in non producing status, Interior Secretary Ken Salazar said in prepared testimony before a subcommittee of the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday.The hearing addressed the Interior Department's fiscal.....Complete Story
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"Natural Gas Tumbles in New York on Outlook for Inventory Glut"
Natural gas futures fell the most in two weeks on speculation a government report tomorrow will show an above average stockpile increase as the recession restricts demand for the industrial fuel. The Energy Department will probably say inventories gained 117 billion cubic feet in the week ended May 29, according to the median of 16 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average change is an increase of 94 billion. Supplies in last week’s report were 22 percent above normal.
“I expect tomorrow’s number to be more of the same,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Schork Group Inc.....Complete Story
Trading Video “How Low Can The Dollar Go”
Crude Oil Trading Lower As Dollar Gains Strength
July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.24
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 ay moving average crossing at 64.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84
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The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm.
If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Wednesday pivot point for natural gas is 4.16
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.69
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.90
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.50
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will be looking for bullish set ups above the pivot point at 942. We are looking the first congestion of sellers being at 953 and major selling taking place at 960. If we are break and cross the 942 pivot we will see traders start taking profits at 926 with a possibility of a full gap fill down to 921.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 942
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 points. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 68.24
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 69.05
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 ay moving average crossing at 64.71
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.84
Get Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June Dollar was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.19 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 79.77
Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 81.19
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 78.37
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
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July Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.100. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm.
If July extends Monday's rally, May's high crossing at 4.690 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.902 would temper the near term friendly outlook in the market.
Wednesday pivot point for natural gas is 4.16
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.28
Second resistance is May's high crossing at 4.69
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 3.90
Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 3.50
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index was lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates above January's high crossing at 937.00. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders will be looking for bullish set ups above the pivot point at 942. We are looking the first congestion of sellers being at 953 and major selling taking place at 960. If we are break and cross the 942 pivot we will see traders start taking profits at 926 with a possibility of a full gap fill down to 921.75.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Wednesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 942
First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 948.50
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 907.66
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was down 5.00 points. at 937.60 as of 6:06 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Crude Oil Bulls Still Have Near Term Advantage
July crude oil closed up $0.15 at $68.73 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high and hit another fresh 6 1/2 month high today. Crude oil bulls have the solid near term technical advantage. The "money game" in the commodity markets continues, whereby funds are flowing into commodities with crude oil leading the way. A six week old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
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July natural gas closed down 11.0 cents at $4.139 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady higher, crude oil prices were steady lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some momentum recently.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight month low today. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.
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July natural gas closed down 11.0 cents at $4.139 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were mixed for the natural gas futures market today, as the U.S. stock indexes were steady higher, crude oil prices were steady lower and the U.S. dollar was lower. Bears still have the near term technical advantage. However, the bulls have gained some momentum recently.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The September U.S. dollar index closed down 78 points at 78.83 today. Prices closed near the session low and hit another fresh eight month low today. Prices are still in an 11 week old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid near term technical advantage.
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How Far Can the Dollar Fall?
We were quite amazed when we looked back to see how long it’s been since we had put together a Dollar Index (NYBOT_DX) video. We had to look back to September of 2008 to find the last series of videos we had done specifically for the Dollar Index, and it proved to be successful.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
In today’s video we will look at the Dollar Index and the impact it is having on crude oil (NYMEX_CL) and other major markets. I’ll also make a rather surprising prediction as to the most likely trend the dollar is going to take in the next 12 months.
This is a video you will not want to miss as the ramifications of inflation and the dollar are rather shocking.
We will show you how MarketClub has used the same approach in the same market using our “Trade Triangle” technology to trade this index and just how successfully this approach has been.
We strongly recommend that you watch my earlier Dollar Index video and then watch the new one. This will give you more confidence in using our “Trade Triangle” approach.
As always, the videos are free to watch and there is no need to register. I would love to get your feedback about this video and your own predictions about these markets on our blog.
Crude Oil Consolidates Profits Overnight
July crude oil was slightly lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates below the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. Crude oil bulls are encouraged by the U.S. dollars weakness in over night trading.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.19 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point is 67.66
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 68.68
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 63.88
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 61.19
4:30 PM ET. May 29 API Oil Industry Report
Crude Stocks (Net Change) (previous -2.82M)
Gasoline Stocks (Net Change) (previous -758K)
Distillate Stocks (Net Change) (previous +142M)
Refinery Runs (previous 83.8%)
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.46 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.04
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.46
First support is Monday's low crossing at 78.62
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Get Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight and is trading above January's high crossing at 937.00 as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Day traders are focusing on bullish set ups and if we trade above Monday evening high of 937 my first target will be 947.25 to take at least 50% of my profits. 952.25 would be my 2nd exit point.
If we break below the pivot point and we play the short side my target would be strong support at 929 to take profits.
If June extends this spring's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 905.89 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Tuesday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 935
First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 947.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 905.89
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 2.50 points. at 941.60 as of 6:10 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Monday, June 1, 2009
Some Things Never Change, Another Summer Of Rising Gas Prices
Just like every other summer, gas prices will likely be rising. Gas prices will likely be a thorn in the side of consumers who are starting to feel more optimistic about the U.S. economic recovery.
Market Rally Takes Crude Oil Along For The Ride
July crude oil closed higher on Monday and tested the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
Tread lightly here, this is no place or time to open full long positions in crude. Commercials continue to add to their short positions as they take longs off the table to take profits.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 60.58 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 68.68
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 63.01
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.58
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds....Click Here
The June Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.37
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.74
First support is today's low crossing at 78.62
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Monday and above May's high crossing at 929 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 947.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 904.17
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
Tread lightly here, this is no place or time to open full long positions in crude. Commercials continue to add to their short positions as they take longs off the table to take profits.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 82.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 60.58 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 68.68
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 82.38
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 63.01
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 60.58
Trade Crude in 90 Seconds....Click Here
The June Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended last Friday's decline below the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80. A short covering rally tempered early losses and the mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this spring's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.74 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.37
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.74
First support is today's low crossing at 78.62
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index closed sharply higher on Monday and above May's high crossing at 929 thereby renewing the rally off March's low. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If June extends today's rally, the 38% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 1040.33 is the next upside target. Closes below the reaction low crossing at 875.40 would confirm that a top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 947.00
Second resistance is the 38% retracement level crossing at 1040.33
First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 904.17
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
Crude Oil Rises to Highest Since November on Manufacturing Gain
Crude oil rose to the highest level since November as China’s manufacturing expanded and U.S. industrial output shrank less than forecast, signaling that fuel demand may increase. Oil advanced as much as 3.6 percent and equities rallied after China’s Purchasing Manager’s Index showed that manufacturing in May climbed for a third month. The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest against the euro since December, enhancing the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
“This is all about recovery expectations,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “It looks like manufacturing is recovering in a number of countries, which is feeding into the belief that the worst is behind us. It doesn’t hurt.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
“This is all about recovery expectations,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “It looks like manufacturing is recovering in a number of countries, which is feeding into the belief that the worst is behind us. It doesn’t hurt.....Complete Story
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
Great Video: Learn How To Trade Crude Oil In 90 Seconds
Is it possible to learn how to trade Crude Oil in just 90 seconds???
“OH YES” and here’s why.
1. SUPPLY 2. DEMAND 3. PERCEPTION
No registration required to watch this video.
Learn how to become a winner in crude oil in just 90 seconds.
“OH YES” and here’s why.
1. SUPPLY 2. DEMAND 3. PERCEPTION
No registration required to watch this video.
Learn how to become a winner in crude oil in just 90 seconds.
SP 500 Takes Crude Oil For A Ride Up, Commercials Increasing Short Positions
Even with the bull rush in crude oil commercials, which are the bulk of crude trading volume, are decreasing their open interest and increasing their short positions. Telling me they have no intention of being the ones caught holding crude oil at $72. Also, many traders believe that $70 dollars is the new "cheat" level for OPEC. The level where it becomes acceptable by their peers to ignore the production agreements.
Crude oil will get a free ride from the SP 500 Monday morning as we get a bullish spike in the markets. All of this will be slammed by any recovery on the U.S. Dollar and foreign currencies are all over bought at this point. Inventories will be big as always but Friday's unemployment numbers will be our biggest indicator of future demand.
Stochastics and the RSI are bullish in the SP 500 signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
Monday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 65.99
1st resistance is 67.29
2nd resistance is 67.95
3rd resistance is 69.25
1st support is 65.33
2nd support is 64.03
3rd support is 63.37
Natural Gas pivot point for Monday is 3.93
Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish for natural gas signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.057 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If July renews last week's decline, April's low crossing at 3.395 is the next downside target.
Current Futures Prices Click Here
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Have You Missed The Move In Crude?
Have you missed the move in crude oil? Here's a quick score card on ticker DXO. You be the judge.
Feel free to leave a comment to let our readers know where you think crude is headed.
MACD
DXO is trading above its 200 minute moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.
Bollinger Bands
DXO is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.
Parabolic SAR
Today, DXO closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 4.12.
Williams %R
According to the %R which is currently at -6.67% and above the critical level of -20, DXO may be overbought. While a stock that is overbought may continue to rally, investors should be especially careful when DXO begins to lose strength and the %R dips below -20.
Directional Movement Index
The +DI line is above the -DI line and the ADX is greater than 20. This is a bullish signal that indicates the stock is in a confirmed uptrend.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
~
Feel free to leave a comment to let our readers know where you think crude is headed.
MACD
DXO is trading above its 200 minute moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.
Bollinger Bands
DXO is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.
Parabolic SAR
Today, DXO closed above the trigger point for the Parabolic SAR and is currently registering a bullish signal. The current Significant Point, below which a reversal to the bearish side would occur, is 4.12.
Williams %R
According to the %R which is currently at -6.67% and above the critical level of -20, DXO may be overbought. While a stock that is overbought may continue to rally, investors should be especially careful when DXO begins to lose strength and the %R dips below -20.
Directional Movement Index
The +DI line is above the -DI line and the ADX is greater than 20. This is a bullish signal that indicates the stock is in a confirmed uptrend.
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
~
Artic May Hold More Undiscovered Oil
Is the Artic the new frontier for crude oil discoveries. The Heritage Foundation's Ben Lieberman talks about the possibilty of the Artic holding 40-160 billion dollars worth of crude oil beneath the polar ice caps.
Crude Oil Market Winners For This Week
~~~~Company~~~~~~~~~Friday's Close~~~~~%Gain Based on 2 Days
1. Hess Corporation.......65.65...................6.96..........
2. Marathon Oil............31.01...................6.05..........
3. Husky Energy...........33.89...................5.25..........
4. Petro-Canada...........48.49...................4.82..........
5. Suncor...................34.82...................4.75..........
Current Futures Prices Click Here
1. Hess Corporation.......65.65...................6.96..........
2. Marathon Oil............31.01...................6.05..........
3. Husky Energy...........33.89...................5.25..........
4. Petro-Canada...........48.49...................4.82..........
5. Suncor...................34.82...................4.75..........
Current Futures Prices Click Here
Sunday Morning Reading
"China to Raise Gasoline, Diesel Prices 6-7%" [Reuters]
"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop" [Bloomberg]
"Tullow, Heritage Face Tough Choices on Uganda Oil Development" [Rigzone]
"Oil Reserves Could Thaw U.S.- Cuba Tie" [Philly .Com]
"Iran Encourages Japanese Companies To Invest in Oil Sector" [Tehran Times]
"Zoellick Warns Stimulus ‘Sugar High’ Won’t Stem Unemployment" [Bloomberg]
"Lower Highs... Topping or bull flag?" [xtrends]
"Edison Sees Difficulties Boosting Renewable Energy" [Bloomberg]
Register for all the latest Trader's Blog postings Today. Click Here
"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop" [Bloomberg]
"Tullow, Heritage Face Tough Choices on Uganda Oil Development" [Rigzone]
"Oil Reserves Could Thaw U.S.- Cuba Tie" [Philly .Com]
"Iran Encourages Japanese Companies To Invest in Oil Sector" [Tehran Times]
"Zoellick Warns Stimulus ‘Sugar High’ Won’t Stem Unemployment" [Bloomberg]
"Lower Highs... Topping or bull flag?" [xtrends]
"Edison Sees Difficulties Boosting Renewable Energy" [Bloomberg]
Register for all the latest Trader's Blog postings Today. Click Here
Saturday, May 30, 2009
The Price of Oil Companies vs. Crude Oil, Why The Disconnect?
There seems to be a lot of traders baffled by the disconnect between the rising price of oil as a commodity and the price action in the oil companies themselves. While the oil companies have enjoyed the recent rally in crude oil they have not had the same percentage of gains that crude oil has. I don't see it as that big of a mystery.
Institutional buyers and hedge funds have for years used the oil market and commodities in general as their own little playground. And their being hesitant to ramp up the oil companies along with the price of crude says more to me about where the likes of Goldman Sachs and various mutual funds see [plan] on this market going.
Sure, a lot of smart people see crude easily trading up to $70, but then what. There is absolutely nothing to keep us trading at that range and believe it or not the dollar will not continue straight down, nothing does. What isn't definite is the direction of the SP 500. I am personally leaning towards the bearish side, breaking below 875. And if we do crude will retrace it's steps quickly.
Keep your stops tight, don't be the only one left holding crude at $70 dollars.
Check Current Futures Prices Click Here
~
Friday, May 29, 2009
Crude Oil Extends The Spring Rally, Closes Higher
July crude oil closed higher on Friday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
But crude oil bulls should not let this go to their heads. Nothing goes straight up for long and the dollar will correct, if only temporarily, and crude will correct along side of it. The word on the street seems to be 68.49 [$70] is doable near term, don't get caught being the only one holding the crude oil bag beyond that.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.88 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 66.47
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.86
Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 59.88
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar closed sharply lower on Friday ending a four day short covering rally and closed below the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term.
If June extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.73
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.98
First support is today's low crossing at 79.27
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.5
For Current Futures Prices Click Here
The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
Futures ALERT Video Click Here
Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher
"Crude Oil Caps Biggest Monthly Gain Since 1999 on Dollar Drop"
Crude oil rose, capping its biggest monthly gain in a decade, as the dollar weakened against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities. Oil climbed above $66 a barrel to a six-month high as the dollar weakened beyond $1.41 against the euro for the first time this year, making raw materials such as oil and gold an attractive alternative investment. Prices also gained as U.S., and Asian indicators pointed to a global economic recovery. “The devaluation of the dollar is leading to the revaluation of energy and commodities.....Complete Story
"Not Mixing with Rest of Economy, Oil Floats Higher"
The price of crude oil once again seems to be defying the economic forces of gravity.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest prices should be falling. In industrialized countries, storage tanks are overflowing, with enough supplies to cover 62 days of use, about 10 days more than usual. Economic weakness continues to depress world demand, which is on track to fall for the second consecutive year. And oil producing countries, while restraining output, are adding to production capacity. New Saudi Arabian wells coming on line this year will exceed the entire production capacity of Texas.....Complete Story
"Gasoline Futures May Rally as High as $2.20: Technical Analysis"
Gasoline futures could reach $2.20 this summer if the July-delivery contract clears $1.90 next week, according to technical analysis by Infinitytrading.com. The July contract, which becomes the front-month contract June 1, is poised to close above $1.902 a gallon next week, which represents the upper Bollinger band, said Fain Shaffer, president of Infinitytrading.com, a commodities brokerage in Medford, Oregon. The next objective is $2.0414, Shaffer said. Once above $2.0414, the next resistance level would be $2.1981 a gallon, the 200 period moving average on a monthly chart.....Complete Story
Continued Dollar Weakness Fuels Crude Oil Rally
July crude oil was steady to higher overnight as it extends this spring's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
At I am writing crude is trading well above 1st resistance and appears ready to easily trade higher but it's all about the dollar. The dollar is so oversold and any consolidation at all will cause a sharp pullback in crude oil. As long as the SP 500 rallies today crude oil day traders will be buying the dips.
If July extends this spring's rally, the 25% retracement of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 64.32
First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 66.17
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.85
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.87
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June Dollar was sharply lower overnight ending a four-day correction and has broken out below the 62% retracement level of the July-March rally crossing at 79.80. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If June extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the aforementioned rally crossing at 77.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99 would confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.74
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.99
First support is the overnight low crossing at 79.58
Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 77.55
Today’s Stock Market Club Trading Triangles
The June S&P 500 index was higher overnight as it extends this week's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 923.20 then this month's high crossing at 929.00 are the next upside targets.
For Friday most day trading set ups appear to be bullish. I think most traders will be looking to buy dips anywhere near the daily pivot with a target of 913.
From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
Friday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 900
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
The June S&P 500 Index was up 6.60 points. at 911.70 as of 6:02 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a higher opening by the June S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Hard To Believe, But Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Near Term Advantage
July crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
First resistance is today's high crossing at 65.44
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 61.17
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 59.18
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish signaling that a short term low might be in or is near. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
If June extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2008-2009 rally crossing at 79.80 is the next downside target.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.11
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.25
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 79.80
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The June S&P 500 index closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
Barron's Ranks Energy Companies, OPEC Holds Quotas, Tanker Cancellations
"OPEC Holds Production Quotas Steady, Predicting Demand Recovery"
OPEC decided to keep production quotas unchanged a meeting today in Vienna, banking on a recovery in oil demand toward the end of the year. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for 40 percent of global crude supply, agreed to maintain production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day, Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said. It’s the second time this year the 12-member group has met without revising that total. “The market is oversupplied, it’s true,” OPEC Secretary General Abdalla el-Badri told at a press conference afterwards, saying the group decided against cutting.....Complete Story
"Barron's and Fortune Rankings of Energy Companies"
Barron's newspaper recently released its 2009 Barron's 500 company rankings that had a reasonable representation of energy companies. At about the same time, Fortune magazine published its rankings of the top 500 companies. The two rankings are based on different measures of financial performance. The sharp reversal of fortunes for energy commodities and the stock market during the second half of 2008 had contributed to energy companies not ranking as highly for the latest year, but still demonstrating better.....Complete Story
"Frontline Says Third of Oil Tanker Orders at Risk"
Frontline Ltd., the world’s largest operator of supertankers, said it was the first publicly traded shipping line to cancel contracts for new oil carriers and predicted a third of all orders will be delayed or canceled. The Hamilton, Bermuda-based company said today it canceled $556 million of orders for two supertankers and four suezmaxes, out of a total of 18 contracts. Similar moves by other shipping lines may “emerge in the next few weeks,” Jens Martin Jensen, chief executive officer of its management unit, said by phone. The annulments show other owners “might be able to do something” to.....Complete Story
Crude Oil Bulls Still Have The Technical Advantage
July crude oil closed higher on Wednesday as it extends this spring's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term.
If July extends the rally off April's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2008-2009 decline crossing at 68.49 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54 would confirm that a short term top has been posted.
Thursday's pivot point, our line in the sand is 62.97
First resistance is today's high crossing at 63.82
Second resistance is the 25% retracement level crossing at 68.49
First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 60.57
Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 58.54
US Energy Dept Oil Inventories 11:00 AM ET.
Crude Oil Stocks...................368.52M
Crude Oil Stocks...(Net Change)....-900K....-2.11M
Gasoline Stocks....................203.95M
Gasoline Stocks...(Net Change).....-2M......-4.34M
Distillate Stocks..................148.13M
Distillate Stocks...[Net Change)...+1.2M....+672K
Refinery Usage.....................82%......81.8%
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The June Dollar closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near term.
If June extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 78.77 is the next downside target. Multiple closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46 are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted.
First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.28
Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 82.46
First support is last Friday's low crossing at 79.90
Second support is weekly support crossing at 78.77
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The June S&P 500 index closed lower on Wednesday due to profit taking as it consolidated some of Tuesday's rally. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near term.
From a broad perspective, June needs to close above 929.00 or below 875.40 to clear up near term direction in the market.
Thursday's pivot point for the SP 500 is 899
First resistance is today's high crossing at 913.80
Second resistance is last Wednesday's high crossing at 923.20
First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 876.90
Second support is the reaction low crossing at 875.40
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