Free Replay of "How to use Fibonacci Analysis in your Trading" with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden

Our wildly popular webinar from last week was over subscribed so our trading partner John Carter at Simpler Options has decided to offer it one last time Tuesday July 23rd at 2 p.m. eastern standard time.

In this Free webinar replay Carolyn Boroden and John Carter will discuss:

*      How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*     The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*     The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs

........ and much more

Simply fill out this simple registration form and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

See you on Tuesday!

Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Register for Free Replay of "How to use Fibonacci Analysis in your Trading"

Halliburton Announces Second Quarter Income and Earnings HAL

Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) announced today that income from continuing operations for the second quarter of 2013 was $677 million, or $0.73 per diluted share. This compares to income from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2013 of $624 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, excluding a $637 million charge, after-tax, or $0.68 per diluted share, to increase a reserve related to the Macondo litigation.

Halliburton's total revenue in the second quarter of 2013 was a company record of $7.3 billion, compared to $7.0 billion in the first quarter of 2013. Operating income was $1.0 billion in the second quarter of 2013, compared to operating income of $902 million in the first quarter of 2013, adjusted for the Macondo charge. For the first quarter of 2013, reported loss from continuing operations was $13 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, and reported operating loss was $98 million.

“I am pleased with our second quarter results, as total company revenue of $7.3 billion was a record quarter for Halliburton,” commented Dave Lesar, chairman, president and chief executive officer.

“Looking at our product lines, Baroid, Cementing, Completion Tools, Multi-Chem, and Testing set quarterly revenue records, while Baroid, Testing, and Artificial Lift all set quarterly operating income records.

“Relative to our primary competitors, we have delivered leading year-over-year international revenue growth for five consecutive quarters. Eastern Hemisphere operations grew revenue 11% sequentially, resulting from record revenues in both of our regions, and operating income was up 23%.

“Middle East / Asia, our fastest growing market, improved revenue 12% and operating income 17% sequentially. This across the board growth was led by higher stimulation, wireline, and fluids activity in Malaysia, and improved sales in China.

Read the entire Halliburton earnings report


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18.23% Return Produced During July Option Expiration Cycle

As we move through the July monthly option expiration which will occur on July 19, 2013 at the close of business we can look back at the expiration cycle that was. The end of the June monthly option expiration nearly marked the recent market lows. Since the beginning of the July expiration cycle we have seen the S&P 500 Index charge higher.

The recent performance in the Options Trading Signals portfolio has charged higher as well. There were 4 trades that were closed during the July expiration cycle. The 4 trades that were closed had a total gross gain of $169 per spread. The total risk assumed in the 4 closed trades was $927. Thus, the four trades produced a gross return on maximum risk of 18.23%.

A trader that risked roughly $2,500 per spread would have had a gross gain of $1,951 for the month of July. The table below demonstrates the trades that were closed during this expiration cycle.



In full disclosure, there were three trades that were rolled forward as price action did not accommodate trade expectations. However, the overall results of the OTS Portfolio since the beginning of the June expiration cycle have been outstanding. The full trade performance is shown below based on actual trading results from the portfolio.



Since the beginning of the June monthly option expiration cycle, the Portfolio has closed 15 total trades. In that time frame only 1 trade has produced a loss and that trade essentially was breakeven overall. The total recent trading results speak for themselves.

Since inception, the OTS Portfolio has taken 171 trades publicly that have been opened and closed. Of the 171 trades executed, 125 trades have produced gains. This equates to over a 73% success rate for all trades that have been opened and closed for the OTS Portfolio since late 2010. It is not a coincidence that the typical probability of success that I focus on for the service is between 60% – 80% probability at the time of trade entry.

Overall, the OTS Portfolio continues to generate strong trading returns while providing members with an opportunity to look over a professional trader’s shoulder to watch how trades are evaluated and when they are taken and why.

The OTS portfolio strategy is focused on a mathematical approach to trading options that gives traders a probability based edge. No more red and green arrows, no more charts with 500 indicators, and no more confusion. The system used is simple and has proven that strong trading results are possible when simple discipline is applied.

If you are looking for a mathematical and statistical based approach to trading, Options Trading Signals service may be a perfect fit to improve your option trading results.  


Click here to give Options Trading Signals service a try today!

Per Wullf to succeed Fredrik Halvorsen as Chief Executive Officer at SeaDrill SDRL

The Board of Seadrill has today announced that Per Wullf will succeed Fredrik Halvorsen as Chief Executive Officer of Seadrill Management Limited. Mr. Halvorsen has decided to leave Seadrill to join Ubon Partners, a technology venture.

Mr. Wullf has worked for Seadrill since February 2009 as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to Seadrill, he held several senior positions in Maersk, most recently as Managing Director of Maersk Contractors in Norway. He has 33 years of experience in the drilling industry, including 17 years in international and offshore operations.

John Fredriksen, Chairman of the Board of Directors said, "The Board would like to express its thanks to Fredrik Halvorsen for his contribution to the Fredriksen group of companies since he joined us in 2010. His track record of managing organizational change brought a much needed skillset to our businesses, including the successful transition of Seadrill Management from Norway to London this year. Mr. Halvorsen will leave the Company at the end of July, and we wish him all the best in the technology venture.

"Since joining Seadrill in 2009, Mr. Wullf's focus on operational performance during a period of phenomenal growth has allowed Seadrill to establish a track record of delivering safe and efficient operations for its customers. He has established strong relationships and an excellent reputation among our major customers and vendors.

"In his new position, Mr. Wullf will retain a strong focus on the operational performance of the fleet, and for the time being will also retain his position as the Company's Chief Operating Officer. Some functions which have previously been a part of the CEO's responsibilities such as investor presentations, corporate transactions, and financing will to a large extent be assumed by the CFO Rune Magnus Lundetrae and the CAO Rob Hingley-Wilson. This is being done in order for Mr. Wullf to maintain maximum focus on Seadrill's expansion and operation.

"The Board, including myself, will continue to be very actively involved in the strategic development of the Company as well as monitoring the Company's operation. With his strong track record, Mr. Wullf is a natural choice for the Board to ensure a smooth transition and bring Seadrill to the next level. Together with the support of his first class team and the industry's most modern equipment, we look forward to continued success and growth."

Seadrill has a versatile fleet comprising of 62 units, including newbuilds under construction. The fleet operates across five continents supported by over 7,500 employees worldwide.


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Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP) today increased its quarterly cash distribution per common unit to $1.32 ($5.28 annualized) payable on Aug. 14, 2013, to unitholders of record as of July 31, 2013. This represents a 7 percent increase over the second quarter 2012 cash distribution per unit of $1.23 ($4.92 annualized) and is up from $1.30 per unit ($5.20 annualized) for the first quarter of 2013. KMP has increased the distribution 48 times since current management took over in February 1997.

Chairman and CEO Richard D. Kinder said, “KMP had a strong second quarter as our stable and diversified assets continued to grow and produce incremental cash flow. Our five business segments produced approximately $1.337 billion in segment earnings before DD&A and certain items, up 39 percent from the second quarter of 2012. Growth was spearheaded by the drop downs from Kinder Morgan, Inc. associated with its acquisition of El Paso Corporation last year, contributions from the midstream assets we recently acquired in the Copano Energy transaction, strong oil production in our CO2 segment and good results at our Products Pipelines business.

Looking forward, we see exceptional growth opportunities across all of our business segments, as there is a need to build additional midstream infrastructure to move or store oil, gas and liquids from the prolific shale plays in the United States and the oilsands in Alberta, along with increasing demand for CO2, which is used for enhanced oil recovery. We currently have identified approximately $13 billion in expansion and joint venture investments at KMP and we are pursuing customer commitments for additional projects.”

Read the entire KMP earnings report.



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Free Webinar: An evening with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Time is running out to get your seat for Wednesdays webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden and John Carter of Simpler Options. So sign up now!

For years Carolyn Boroden has been using and teaching fund managers Fibonacci based market geometry and symmetry that provides the edge needed to succeed in choosing your entry and exits points for your biggest trades. And you can easily use these methods whether you are trading stocks, currencies, ETFs or commodities.

In this Free webinar Carolyn and John will show us......

*     How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*    The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*    The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs .... and much more

Simply click here and fill out your email address, click submit and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

Get your seat now for "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading"

See you on Wednesday,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Why Great Stocks Drop Hard and Reverse

Institutional sell programs and bots cause disruptions with David Banister, Chief Strategist at the Active Trading Partners......

One thing that will always over rule charts and technical analysis is fundamentals in the long run. To be sure, I love technical analysis but I always combine my work there with fundamental research. I rarely if ever buy a stock just because the chart looks nice, that is almost always a recipe for disaster.

With that said, how many times have you seen a good company with strong fundamentals and a seemingly great looking chart break down over 1-2 weeks and take everyone out of the trade? Then for sure, the stock reverses right back up all the way back to where the decline began? To make matters worse, this happens without any real news or any bad news as it were. What is it that causes these crazy down the mountain and up the mountain moves anyways?

Insitutional Sell Programs— sometimes referred to as “Bots” or “Algo” program trading

How does it work?

In an apparently strong fundamental growth stock with no apparent issues, an institution will have a pre-defined price at which point instructions are triggered to liquidate the entire position almost at any price once that price point is hit. They protect themselves ahead of time with Puts, which give them profits if the targeted stock drops hard while they are selling out of the position, thereby locking in their targeted sell price.

Lets take several examples, here's the 3 month charts to show you exactly how they look on paper.



Free Webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading" this Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Continuous Commodity Index Points to Rally in Gold & Silver

During the recent weeks we have seen commodities especially precious metals continue to drop in value. Market participant sentiment has become more bearish on commodities and couple that with a rising dollar it’s no wonder why we continue to see commodities as a whole fall in value.

Money has been flowing out of bonds at record levels this summer telling us most of market participants are feeling bullish on the stock market. This shift in sentiment of the masses are typical as they move their money from the risk on safer assets (bonds & commodities) and rotate into risk-on assets like stocks. While this is a bearish (contrarian sign) stocks could easily continue to rally for an extended period of time and possibly several more months before they actually top out.

Just click here and we'll take a look at the financial market business cycle diagram.



Don't miss this weeks Free Webinar with Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden. Just click here to attend "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading" Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

Free Webinar: How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading Wednesday, July 17th at 8:00PM est

For years Carolyn Boroden has been using Fibonacci based market geometry and symmetry that provides the edge needed to succeed in choosing your entry and exits points for your biggest trades. And you can easily use these methods whether you are trading stocks, currencies, ETFs or commodities.

In this Free webinar Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden and "Simpler Options" John Carter will show us......

*     How to identify Fibonacci support & resistance zones

*    The simple way to manage your risk/reward using Fibonacci ratios

*    The brain dead easy ways to set up your support & resistance zones

*     How you can identify what markets to trade and when

*    The secret to identifying high probability targets in stocks and ETFs .... and much more

Simply click here and fill out your email address, click submit and you will be automatically registered for the webinar.

Watch "How to Use Fibonacci Analysis in Your Trading"

See you on Wednesday,
Ray @ The Crude Oil Trader

Weekly Precious Metals Market Recap with Mike Seery

The precious metals had one of the best weeks to the upside in quite some time because of statements from Ben Bernanke coming out basically stating he’s going to continue QE3 forever which put the fire under gold prices up 4 days in a row before Friday as profit taking set in down about $3 at 1,277 an ounce after settling last Friday 1,212 now trading at 1,278 above its 20 day moving average but below its 100 day moving average and now has started to form excellent chart structure with a possible bottom being formed in recent weeks hitting a 3 week high in yesterday’s trade.

I have been bearish gold and the precious metals for quite some time but I’m recommending to sit on the sidelines with a possible break out to the upside which is pretty amazing as I’ve been bearish forever but the trend can change very quickly so I’m looking at gold to the upside if it breaks out above 1300.

Silver futures for the September contract are right at their 20 day moving average but below their 100 day moving average also at a 3 week high also developing excellent chart structure settling last Friday at 18.73 up around $1.00 this week currently going out around 19.78 an ounce and if you’re looking to get long this market I would buy a futures mini contract and place a stop below the contract low risking around $1500 per contract.

Copper futures which I have been bearish for quite some time and now I’m neutral because it hit a 10 day high in yesterday’s trade also with excellent chart structure settling at 3.0650 last Friday currently going out around 3.17 a pound trading above its 20 day moving average with a possible short term bottom in place as the entire precious metal sector is starting to look bullish.

I’m still advising traders to sit on the sideline and wait for a 4 week high before entering and that could be next week especially if we have tighter trading ranges but the tide may have turned as Ben Bernanke refuses to let commodity, housing and stock prices to go down & he will do anything in is power to keep printing money and keep artificially inflating prices that should be much lower in my opinion.

This man has way too much power in my opinion there are 7 billion people on this planet with one person dictating everything & I think that is out of control & has never happened in the history of the world and I do believe one day this will end in a total disaster and I do mean total disaster.

Click here to check in with Mike on other weekly futures like the grains, sugar, orange juice, cotton, lumber and coffee.
 

How to Find Key Levels in Precious Metals to Take High Probability Trades

New video: Today's Crude Oil Trade....Key levels, entry and exit points, with John Carter

We are feeling lucky today as our trading partner John Carter of "Simpler Options" is sharing some of his trading techniques and he is using crude oil as an example in today's video.

But the key isn't the oil trade example you'll see, it's the strategy someone taught John that makes the huge trade possible. That someone is none other then the Fibonacci Queen, Carolyn Boroden.

The short video makes available to you the same strategy John uses when he trades oil and how he identifies entry targets and when to take profits.

Click here to watch "Today's Crude Oil Trade....Key levels, entry and exit points, with John Carter"

Platts: ICE Brent futures lose previous quarter's premium to NYMEX WTI, Dubai

After a strong performance at the beginning of the year, the forward Brent complex lost some of its strength to WTI and Dubai crude futures in the second quarter of 2013 on a combination of European demand woes and stronger East and West crudes.

The narrowing of the spread between the ICE Brent futures and NYMEX light sweet contract, known as Brent/WTI spread, was a notable change in the quarter.

Toward the end of June, the ICE Brent front-month futures contract narrowed its premium to front-month NYMEX crude to below $6/barrel, more than halving from the beginning of the quarter. (A trend which of course has continued, with the spread tumbling below $5/b and even $4/b in just the first three days of July.)


Here's a short video in which John Carter shows how he trades oil and how he identifies targets when to take profit.

New video: Carolyn Borodens "Secrets to Maximizng your Profits and Minimizing your Risk"

In today's new video from John Carter he shows us how the strategies taught to him by our very own Carolyn "The Fibonacci Queen" Boroden helped him make 93k because Carolyn made it clear how to use her secrets to know when to exit these big trades.

You may recognize Carolyn from CNBC, but she's trading with us now. If you have been following the Crude Oil Trader then you know John Carter has made us a lot of money in 2013. Bringing in HIS instructor, one of the real "hot hands" on Wall Street, is going to take all of us to another level whether you are trading commodities, equities, currencies or options.

Click Here to Watch Video

Here's what John will be covering in this video. You'll learn......

• How to Know When to Enter a Trade

• How to Know When to Take Profits

• How to Find Key Levels to Take High Probability Trades

• How to Time Your Trade for Maximum Profit

• How to Minimize Your Risk

Just click Here to Watch Carolyn Bordens "Secrets to Maximizng your Profits and Minimizing your Risk"

Rigzone: Rail Delivery of Oil, Petroleum Products Continues to Increase

From Robin Dupre at Rigzone.....

With U.S. crude oil producing at record amounts and outstripping pipeline capacity, the country is relying heavily on railroads to move new crude oil to refineries and storage centers, reported the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Wednesday.

The total amount of crude oil and refined products being transported by rail is close to 356,000 carloads during the first half of 2013, up 48 percent from the same period last year, according to Association of American Railroads.

“U.S. weekly car loadings of crude oil and petroleum products averaged nearly 13,700 rail tankers during the January to June 2013 period. With one rail carload holding about 700 barrels, the amount of crude oil and petroleum products shipped by rail was equal to 1.37 million barrels per day during the first half of 2013, up from 927,000 barrels per day during the first six months of last year. Crude oil accounted for about half of the 2013 daily volumes," reported AAR.

"Increases in rail transportation multifactor productivity can be traced to technical progress, such as improved capital inputs and technological changes in the form of improved methods of service delivery. Improved technology for locomotives, freight cars, and track and structures have increased reliability and reduced maintenance needs," added the United States Department of Transportation.

A large portion of the produced crude oil is from North Dakota where there is not enough pipeline capacity to move supplies, therefore dependency on delivery of oil by rail is substantial. North Dakota currently ranks as the second largest oil producing state after Texas, reported EIA.

"The roughly 700,000 barrels per day of crude oil, which includes both imported and domestic crude oil, moved by rail compares with the 7.2 million barrels of crude oil the United States produces daily," added EIA.

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Shell Names Ben van Beurden as new CEO

Shell (RDS.A) has named Ben van Beurden, the head of its Downstream business, as CEO to replace Peter Voser, who had already announced he is leaving the company. Van Beurden will take over in January next year. He joined Shell in 1983 and has held a number of technical and commercial positions in the company's Upstream and Downstream operations.

A "solid Shell man," new CEO Ben van Beurden has worked for Shell [RDS.A] for 30 years, turning around the chemicals business and spending 10 years in its liquefied natural gas business. But Chairman Jorma Ollila's comment that the new CEO would "continue to... develop the strategic agenda we have set out" suggests there's no real change ahead - which leaves little for investors to get excited about.


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The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on U.S. Equities

Chris Vermeulen shows us how U.S. Equities opened higher on Monday and are, in his opinion,  setting up for a sharp pullback based on technical analysis using trends, cycles, momentum, volume, market breadth and key resistance zones.

Take a look at his chart work for a quick flash of what he thinks.

Entire article > "The 30 Second Technical Flash Chart Report on US Equities"



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Technical Analysis Video – Precious Metals, Crude Oil, Bonds, SP500

What a great way to start our week. Our trading partner Chris Vermeulen has just released a new video covering precious metals, crude oil, bonds and the SP500. Do you think WTI crude oil is topping out here? Is gold bottoming? Let's see how Chris is trading this market this week.

Just click here to watch "Technical Analyis Video – Precious Metals, Crude Oil, Bonds, SP500"


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Weekly Precious Metals Market Recap with Mike Seery

It's time to check in with our trading partner Mike Seery on where he sees precious metals heading for the end of the 1st week of trading in July.

The precious metals continue their downturn as higher interest rates are pressuring gold down $37 an ounce at 12.14 which is a new closing low and as I’ve been telling people through many previous blogs to keep selling the precious metals as there really is no reason to own gold since deflation is in the air not inflation.

Silver futures are down $.95 in the July contract at 18.75 looking to retest recent lows with the possibility of prices going down to the $15 level here in the next couple of weeks as the tide has turned in the commodity market.

I have been recommending a short copper position for quite some time as copper was absolutely pummeled today down 1100 points at 3.06 a pound placing a stop above the 10 day high which is 3.17 and I do believe copper prices are headed steadily lower possibly down to 2.50 in the next 4 to 6 weeks as demand has weakened tremendously in China and higher interest rates will put the kibosh on copper prices in my opinion.

All of the precious metals are trading far below their 20 and 100 day moving average and I believe that will continue for quite some time as the U.S dollar is the place to park money due to the fact that interest rates are much higher here than overseas which will continue to put pressure on the precious metals in my opinion.

Precious metals trend....lower, Chart structure.....excellent.

Here's more commodity news [including sugar, grains, orange juice, cotton, coffee] from Mike for the first week of July....Just click here.

Leading Sectors, Cycles and Momentum Point To Drop This Week

Chris Vermeulen's trade set up for the first week of July.....

As talked about almost two weeks ago when the SP500 trend reversed to the down side we have been waiting for a bounce in price to short the market (buy and inverse ETF). That happened last week and now we are waiting for the market to shake out the short positions and suck in as many traders to get long before the next wave of major selling takes place.

It seems traders are becoming bullish again as prices rise and they are dumping their precious metal positions and rotating into equities again from the looks of things. Also if you know the Dow Theory then you know the industrial and transportation sectors tend to lead the broad market. Well today the only two sectors trading lower are just those two.

See the charts for a visual

They Just Rang A Bell On Gold and Gold Stocks

Our trading partner David A. Banister of Market Trend Forecast has been the go to guy on gold and precious metals. Let's check in with Banister and see if he thinks the bottom is in for gold.

As they say on Wall Street, “They don’t ring bells at the top” and for sure they usually don’t give you a phone call at the bottom either. Many heads have rolled trying to call this recent near 2 year downdraft in Gold in terms of bottom callers, me included. I thought we would never get much below 1440 or so from the 1923 highs, but alas we all know we did.

What makes me think that last week put in the final Gold low for the bear cycle? Too many things to mention, but based on the work I do enough to give me some chutzpah to make this call now. The 1180’s are very close to a classic ABC 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior 34 month bull cycle. That cycle ran from October 2008 to August 2011 with a rally from $681 to $1900’s area. The most recent 21 plus month decline dropped right into the 61% pivot retracement of that entire move, and over a Fibonacci 21 month period as well! Human behavior does repeat over and over again, and as we all know in hindsight at the tops everyone is bullish and at the bottoms everyone is bearish.

I think it’s pretty much as simple as that. Investors get overly optimistic and exuberant in all kinds of asset classes and finally at the highs everyone believes the rally can only go on and on forever. At the opposite near the bottoms nearly everyone is calling for lower prices and further catastrophe ahead. Stocks in the sector are priced for near bankruptcy. Newsletter writers are universally bearish, and the small trader has a big short position. Only a few weeks ago the Bullish Percentile index measurement on the Gold Stock Index was at 0! That means nobody was bullish on the Gold stocks by the measure that is used. We quickly had an 8% rally in the index after that reading, then in the last few weeks we came all the way back down again to even lower levels!

If you watched the action last Thursday as Gold was melting down below $1200 a curious thing happened. The gold miners were ignoring the move and going green! On Friday, as Gold reversed to 1234 they went ballistic with one of my favorite miners going up 16% on Friday alone on the highest volume in 5 years! Those are the signals I’ve been waiting for to call the capitulation lows. My guess is some money managers are front running the coming 3rd quarter rotation they see in Gold and Gold Miners, Copper, Coal, and other commodity stocks.

So below is my basic GLD ETF multiyear chart using very simple monthly views to see the big picture. You can see a classic ABC pattern of bear market correction and now a near 61.8% perfect Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg up. I’d say enough is enough, pick your spots and start buying.




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