Crude Remains Supported as IEA Raised Demand Forecasts

Crude oil price remains strong in European morning. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast on oil demand, as indicated in the September report. The October contract hovers around 72 as investors await further details on US inventories. As driven by stronger than expected US demand and rapid growth in China, the IEA revised up its demand forecasts for 2009 and 2010, to 84.4M bpd and 85.7 M bpd respectively. There were compared with June's projections of 83.94 M bpd for 2009 and 85.25M bpd for 2010. According to the agency, 'there is growing evidence that the global economy may be finally stabilizing, with industrial destocking coming to an end, coupled with the effects of large scale government intervention... Oil demand in US, China and other Asia appears to be running stronger than preliminary estimates suggested'.....Read the entire article

OPEC Maintains Oil Quotas as IEA Raises Global Demand Forecast

OPEC said it will keep oil production quotas unchanged, banking on a recovery in the world economy to maintain prices near today’s $72 a barrel as the International Energy Agency raised its global demand forecast. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to maintain total production quotas at 24.845 million barrels a day and will urge members to adhere to targets, OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri said. The IEA raised its global oil demand estimate for next year for a second month, citing growth in Chinese consumption and stronger-than-expected U.S. oil use. “Holding production was the prudent thing to do,” Jason Schenker, president of Texas-based consultants Prestige Economics LLC, said in an.....Read the entire article

How to Trade Gold, Natural Gas & Crude Oil ETF Funds

From guest analyst Chris Vermeulen at The Gold and Oil Guy

How to trade hot commodities like natural gas, oil and gold – We should see big moves in the coming weeks as gas bottoms, and oil & gold breakout or breakdown. A lot of money is going to be exchanging hands quickly and the key is to be on the receiving end of things. Below are some charts showing where these commodities are trading.

How to Trade Gold – Weekly Chart
How I trade gold is relatively straight forward. I use a simple trading model which allows me to identify the down side risk for a potential gold trade. I also use the same model for trading oil, gas and silver.

Beyond finding good entry points, it is crucial to know when to take some profits off the table. The weekly gold chart clearly shows gold trading at a resistance level which means there are going to be more sellers than buyers, hence the reason it is called resistance.

To trade gold I enter with my low risk entry points and sell half my position once I reach a resistance level. Today for example gold moved up into this long term resistance level and then started to head south. We took some profits off the table before gold dipped in the late afternoon for a healthy gain. Taking profits is a must or you’ll simply hold onto winning positions until they eventually turn into a loser.


How to Trade Crude Oil – Weekly Chart
Trading crude oil is exciting because it moves much faster than gold. How to trade crude oil with low risk can be done by using my simple trading model which is a combination of indicators like momentum, support & resistance, volume, price patterns and media coverage. All these things combined allow for highly accurate trades with minimal down side risk.

Crude oil looks ready to make a big move. The odds are pointing to higher prices because oil has a multi month bullish price action and the falling US dollar helps increase the price of oil. I can see oil breakout and rally into the $95 per barrel level if things go that way in the coming weeks.


How to Trade Oil (USO Fund) – Weekly Chart
USO tracks similarly to the price of crude oil and it provides some great trades for both swing traders and day traders. I focus on trades that bounce off support with low downside risks, which occur on both the daily and weekly charts.


How to Trade Natural Gas – Weekly Chart
Natural gas is looking ready to bottom here. If you go back to the early 90’s the $2-3 range is a major support level. While I don’t generally try to pick bottoms, there are some signature price patterns and volume patterns that have proven to be very profitable for catching sharp bounces.


How to Trade Natural Gas – Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a perfect waterfall sell off with the price of natural gas dropping to a long term support level. This pattern combination shows panic selling which indicates a short term bottom is close.

The extreme panic selling and sharp decline in price, removes much of the down side risk. Scaling into a position over a few days, if the price continues to move lower, is important for this strategy to work its magic.

The black horizontal lines show my resistance levels for taking profits. If the price were to drop below $10 then I would exit the second half of the position to lock in the rest of the profit.


How to Trade Commodities Conclusion:
Trading commodities is very simple with all the ETF’s and funds available. The energy funds like oil and gas have some issues with following the prices of their underlying commodity but I do not find it a problem with my style of trading.

I would really like to know the entire story about what is going on with the oil and nat gas funds which have crazy contango issues??? Why do other commodity funds like GLD (gold bullion) and SLV (silver bullion) not have these issues?? Why can’t they make a fund which follows oil and gas properly? All I know is that there are a lot of dishonest people in the financial industry taking honest hard working peoples money.

If you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's free weekly trading reports visit The Gold and Oil Guy to join his newsletter.

Stimulus Money To Fund Propane Fueling Stations

The U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday awarded $12.9 million in two stimulus grants to CleanFUEL USA, a leader in propane engine technology and alternative fuel infrastructure solutions. The funds will be used to establish more than 100 state of the art liquid propane (Autogas) refueling stations in major U.S. cities in coordination with CleanFUEL USA partners, including ConocoPhillips. Other supporting partners include the Texas State Technical College, the Central Texas Clean Cities Coalition, Rush Truck Centers, 16 additional area Clean Cities Coalitions and the Propane Education and Research Council. The propane network will provide retail consumers as well as municipal, state and private fleets greater access to a cost effective and clean-burning alternative transportation fuel.....Read the entire article

Oil Rises Above $72 as Dollar Weakens to Lowest Level This Year

Crude oil rose above $72 a barrel as the dollar dropped to the lowest level against the euro this year before OPEC’s scheduled announcement today that its members will maintain output targets. Oil added to yesterday’s gain of 4.5 percent in New York as the falling U.S. currency spurred investors’ demand for dollar priced assets to hedge against inflation. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should maintain existing output quotas and improve compliance when it meets, the group’s production-monitoring committee recommended late yesterday. “The oil market is going to remain focused on the dollar and what other commodities do,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFG Best, a Chicago based brokerage. “We are all expecting OPEC to celebrate where prices are and pay lip service to better compliance in the future”.....Read the entire article

Oil Demand To Return To Pre-Recession High In 2012 - Report

World oil demand is set to grow next year for the first time since 2007 and return to pre-recession levels by 2012, according to IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates in its quarterly World Oil Watch report. The rebound would mark a turnaround from the largest drop in global oil demand since the oil crisis of the early 1980s. IHS CERA expects oil demand growth to resume by 900,000 barrels per day (bd) in 2010 and return to its 2007 high of 86.5 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2012 a five year turnaround. "There are a lot of questions as to whether things will be 'different this time' in terms of the recovery of oil demand," said IHS CERA chairman and Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize, Daniel Yergin. "While the answer is that it will be shorter, it is still going to take a substantial amount of time".....Read the entire article

How Low Can Natural Gas Go?

From guest analyst Jena Cartter of PCIFX, A New Horizon Of Perfection.

If one were to look up a textbook definition of a bear market, this year's natural gas market would be it. Yesterday, lead month Natural Gas futures fell to lows not seen since March of 2002, as the EIA weekly storage report showed 65 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas was placed into storage last week. Although this figure was in line with expectations and well below the 95 bcf injected into storage this time last year, traders continued to focus on weak industrial demand as well as burdensome supplies.

Including last week's build, U.S. supplies of Gas in storage now total 3.323 trillion cubic feet (tcf), which is 18% above the 5-year average. It was a perfect storm for gas bulls this year, with industrial demand expected to be down just over 8.5% this year and summer cooling demand which never really materialized due to relatively cool summer weather in the Midwest and on the east coast. The market psychology is so bearish that traders have not been able to build a 'weather premium' into prices, despite entering the peak Atlantic hurricane season during the month of September. Should the storm season spare the Gas infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico this year, it is possible we may see a record amount of Gas in storage going into the winter.

November 1st is considered the 'official' start of the heating season in the U.S., in which energy producers begin to draw Gas out of storing to meet heating demand. Some traders believe we may reach maximum storage capacity of just under 3.9 tcf before this occurs. The previous record was 3.545 tcf of gas in storage in 2007. Large speculators are holding a large net short position in Natural Gas futures according to the most recent Commitment of Traders report (COT). According to the COT, large non-commercial traders were net short 89,239 contracts as of August 25th. Small speculative traders were net long 49,161 contracts.

This information really highlights the trading styles of large and small speculators, as large speculators have historically been trend followers who will add to wining trades as the market moves in their direction. Small speculators like to try to pick tops and bottoms in a market, which is a difficult task for those lacking the funds to hold a position in the midst of a strong trending market.

Technical Notes
Looking at the daily chart for October Natural Gas, we notice prices accelerated to the downside once the July 13th low of 3.584 was taken out. This was the bottom of a two month long consolidation pattern that gave way in the direction of the major trend. The 14 day RSI is currently reading an extremely oversold 18.24, but has not yet shown any signs of reversing. 2.250 is seen as the next psychological support point for the October futures, with the 20 day moving average, currently near the 3.325 area, acting as resistance.

Visit the PCIFX website for more great analysis.

Oil Rises Above $71 as Dollar Tumbles, OPEC Ministers Gather

Crude oil rose above $71 a barrel after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on output levels. Oil increased the most in more than two weeks and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas. “Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “These concerns are also reflected in the gold market, which broke through resistance at the important $1,000 level”.....Read the entire article

Schlumberger CEO Says Smaller Services Companies to Fold or Merge

Chief Executive Andrew Gould of oilfield services giant Schlumberger predicts that further consolidation in the services industry, as well as the fall of smaller U.S. rivals, is likely to occur in the year ahead, according to a report by Dow Jones Newswires.

"There will be even more consolidation of smaller services companies in the U.S., if not mortality for some, as some will just not be able to service their debts," Gould said at the Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Gould cited the cancellation or delaying of industry projects, which has made capital less readily available, as one of the primary challenges the oilfield services sector has faced during 2009.

From the staff at Rigzone

Crude Oil Rises the Most in More Than a Month as Dollar Tumbles

Crude oil rose the most in more than a month after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on production levels. Oil topped $71 a barrel and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas.“Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's consolidation from 67.43 is still in progress and further recover cannot be ruled out. But still, another fall is still in progress as long as 71.60 resistance holds. Break of 67.43 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has resumed for 65.23 support next. Break there will confirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has completed and will bring deeper fall to test this key support level. On the other hand, strong rebound above 65.23, followed by break of 71.60 resistance will suggest that fall from 75.0 is a correction only and rise from 58.32 is still in progress. Intraday bias will then be flipped back to the upside for a 75.0 and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2]. In the bigger picture, there is no.....Read the entire article

Venezuela, Iran Ink Oil Invest Deals for South Pars, Dokobuki Field

Iran and Venezuela signed three oil deals Sunday during a Venezuelan presidential visit as the Islamic republic tries to mitigate the risk of new sanctions, Iranian news agencies said Monday. The accords were signed as Tehran is coming under increased international pressure over its nuclear program, including a threat to enforce sanctions against import products to Iran. The semi-official Mehr news agency said on Monday that Iran and Venezuela signed three memorandums of understanding in the energy sector in Tehran on Sunday as part of a visit to the country by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They include two agreements of reciprocal investments in Iran and Venezuela each worth $760 million, according to Mehr and Shana, Iran's Oil Ministry news agency.....Read the entire article

Iran Sees OPEC Maintaining Current Oil Output

Iran, the second largest exporter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, predicted on Sunday the cartel will maintain current oil output at its meeting next week, despite producers being unhappy with the prevailing price of crude. "There is a feeling among OPEC oil ministers that the group wants to maintain current ouput levels," Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative to OPEC, told AFP ahead of Wednesday's meeting of the group in Vienna. "I think it is unlikely we will see any noticeable change. Based on comments already made by OPEC ministers, the output ceiling will not change." OPEC, whose 12 members pump 40% of the world's oil, agreed in late 2008 to remove a massive 4.2 million barrels a day of output from the market in a bid to shore up crumbling prices......Read the entire article

BP: Best in Class

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, argues that BP's recent oil discovery provides much needed growth potential.



Get a current trend analysis for BP.....Just Click Here!

Thin Trading Seen In Commodties While Stocks Surge

Crude oil price continues hovering around 68 level in European morning. We believe thin trading remains throughout the as US and Canada are on public holidays. Stock markets in Asia and Europe gain amid expectations that G-20 leaders will collaborate to oversee the global financial system. Stock markets in Asia advanced with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising +1%. In Japan, Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed +1.3% to 10320. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index edged +0.68% higher to 2881 and Hong Kong&'s Hang Seng Index gained +1.5% to 20629. In Europe, benchmark shares surge. UK&'s FTSE 100 Index opens higher and is currently rising +2.6% to 4923. Both Germany&'s DAX and France&'s CAC 40 also add +1.5% to 5465 and 3651, respectively. Finance ministers and central bank.....Read the entire article

Oil Rises as Weaker Dollar Encourages Buying, Equities Climb

Crude oil rose for a second day as a weaker dollar encouraged investors to buy commodities and stronger equity markets signaled optimism the economic recovery remains on track. Oil rose, tracking stock markets in Europe and Asia, as the Group of 20 nations agreed on steps to shore up the global financial system. The U.S. currency weakened against the euro for a second day. All 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted OPEC will maintain its production target at 24.845 million barrels a day at a Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna. “Oil is a bit supported by the weaker dollar and stronger equities,” said Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We know that OPEC will not cut, the question is how this will be taken by the market”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Falls Below $68 on Speculation Global Supplies Ample

Crude oil dropped below $68 a barrel on speculation supplies are ample as the end of summer driving in the U.S. compounds already weak global demand. A report tomorrow will probably show consumer credit in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, fell for a sixth month as banks restricted lending and rising unemployment damped borrowing. OPEC member states are unlikely to change output levels when they meet this week, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Iran’s representative to the group, Mohammad Ali Khatibi.“The trade is kind of anticipating a period of slack seasonal demand coming up, which I think is possibly going to keep the upside fairly limited,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst with Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “We’ll just have to see if the refineries start to scale back their runs”.....Read the entire article

Natural Gas: Extreme Contango Suggests Caution for E&P Companies

The price of Natural Gas is hovering just below $3, which is about the median price over the past two decades. Or is it? While the spot price has garnered lots of headlines recently for its collapse, the future price has declined much much less so. The quoted price for a year from now is above $5. Clearly the spot price is very depressed relative to the future price. In fact, it is at a record percentage differential. In the chart below (click to enlarge), I have divided the one year forward price by the 1-month forward price. The mean spread has been 6%. You will see I included lines for +/- 2 standard deviations as well. The current relationship is more than 4 standard deviations from the mean. At this point.....Read the entire article

Where is Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.

Despite sliding prices, the LNG keeps coming

Despite the steady drop in natural gas prices, Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas terminals are expecting a steady stream of shipments in the coming weeks. Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal received an LNG shipment at its dock this week and a second tanker is due by the middle of next week. And the Trunkline LNG terminal in Lake Charles, La., could see as many as three new tanker loads of LNG in the coming weeks, according to Waterborne Energy, a Houston-based LNG market tracking firm. “The last place you would expect to see a potential 20 bcf build in LNG imports in today's weak natural gas environment would be the U.S. Gulf,” Waterborne Energy said in a report Thursday.....Read the entire article

Gold Shines Again While Crude Loses Glitter

Star of the week was obviously gold which broke out of recent broad trading range and set to resume the long uptrend with target above 1000. We find the rally impressive as the dollar remained range bounded. While momentum looks strong, we would be more convinced that the precious metal will make new high above 1033.9 if a close above 1000 is seen. We will have 3 central bank meetings in the coming week, namely RBNZ, BOE and BOC. While we expect no change in monetary policies, policymakers' outlook on economic development and exit strategies from stimulus should provide guidance on currency and gold movements.On the other hand, crude oil's rally has lost steam after jumping to 75. Focus next week will be OPEC's meeting, although it's broadly anticipated that the cartel will not alter production quota. In coming months, crude oil should trade within a range of 65-75.....Read the entire article

Why $200 Oil Is Just Around the Corner

Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller," Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon. The premise of Rubin's book is that oil is a finite resource and so called "easy" oil is waning. Inevitably production will be unable to keep up with the growing demand worldwide, and the price of oil will skyrocket.

The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either. "There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned".....Read the entire article

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Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Is on ‘Slippery Slope’ Toward $60

Crude oil is on a “slippery slope” after failing to break through resistance and is set to test support at $60.43 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. The failure of October oil futures to breach $75.27, the June 11 high, has made crude vulnerable to “significant decline,” according to Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson. Futures dropped more than $7 since touching $75 a barrel on Aug. 25. “We are right on a precipice here and are at a very important inflection point,” Ross said in a telephone interview. Settling below $68 a barrel yesterday “opens the door to testing $65 and $60.43, which was the low on July 13”.....Read the entire article

Mexico's Calderon: BP's Deepwater Find A Wake Up Call

Mexico needs more reforms to rapidly tackle the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shore up plummeting domestic oil production, President Felipe Calderon said Thursday. Calderon said BP PLC's giant deepwater oil discovery in the Tiber field, announced Wednesday, should serve as a wake up call for Mexico. State run Petroleos Mexicanos is legally blocked from teaming up with foreign oil companies that have more experience in the area."I hope this sign from the Gulf of Mexico tells us something," said Calderon in a radio interview.....Read complete article

Gas May Drop From Seven Year Low to $2, Options Show

Natural gas futures are poised to fall further after trading at the lowest in seven years in New York as stockpiles grew to a record for this time of year, according to options data and analysts. The cleaner burning fuel, down 56 percent this year, may plunge another 20 percent to below $2 per million British thermal units as new liquefied natural gas supplies come on stream, said Tony Regan, a consultant for Singapore based Tri-Zen International. Trading of bearish options on the U.S. Natural Gas Fund rose to a record as investors bet that the exchange traded fund tracking gas futures will keep tumbling.....Read entire article

Great Post From One of my Favorite Bears......When This Whole Thing is Over

One of the biosphere's most popular bears [in his defense, it is a bear market] is Atilla Demiray. He is one of the key figures at the wildly popular and controversial xtrends blog. He was kind enough to share his current chart work on crude oil and it is a treat. Look it over and please leave a comment on what you think, good or bad!

Click the chart to enlarge....


Check out his recent post When this whole thing is over...

Natural Gas Dips to Lowest Since March 2002 on Inventory Gain

Natural gas futures fell in New York to the lowest level since March 2002 after a government report showed stockpiles expanded more than average to a record for this time of year. Supplies rose 65 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 28 to 3.323 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Inventories are the highest for that week since the department began publishing data in 1993. Stockpiles typically gained 64 billion cubic feet for the period in the past five years. “We’re well supplied and there’s so little demand,” said Michael Rose, director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “Some people are starting to question the economic recovery and that adds more pressure to gas”.....Red the complete article

Oil Retreats on Greater Than Anticipated U.S. Jobless Claims

Crude oil retreated after more Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits last week, spurring skepticism about the strength of the recovery from the country’s worst recession since the 1930s. Oil futures dropped more than $1 from the day’s highs after the Labor Department reported that applications for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 to 570,000 in the week ended Aug. 29, exceeding the 564,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Crude advanced earlier as the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 4.8 percent, the most since March 4. “The oil market is taking its direction from what happens with equities,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.....Read the complete article

Crude Oil Technical Analysis From PCIFX

From guest analyst Jena Cartter of PCIFX....

Crude oil attempted to decline again, whereas the key support level,currently at 67.00, is protecting the upside trend till now. For today, we expect an incline on the intraday basis, confirmed by breaching the resistance level at 68.75; initially targeting 71.50. It is vital that trading remains above 67.00 to maintain the upside movements expected for today.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 65.00 and the key resistance at 73.15.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.

Support: 67.70, 67.00, 66.50, 65.25, 64.65
Resistance: 67.75, 68.70, 69.70, 70.35, 71.50

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying oil from 68.75 To 71.50 and stop loss below 67.70, might be appropriate.

PCIFX New Horizon Of Perfection

Disclaimer: PCIfx assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commodity ETF Explosion

Assessing whether more commodity funds will be forced to close, with John Hyland, United States Commodity Funds CIO and the Fast Money team.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's fall from 75.0 extends further and is now pressing near term trend line support. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of the trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already and turn focus to 65.23 support. Further break there will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term Fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27.....Read the complete article

The Nasdaq Cut Open and Broken Down

Since we follow the NASDAQ as a market direction indicator and crude oil future demand concerns rely on the markets right now we thought it would be a good idea to examine the NASDAQ Index. This market, which made its peak in 2000 at the height of the dot com bubble, remains in a secular bear market.

After making a low in March of 2001, this market has had multi-year recovery which has rallied it very close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. After a nearly 50% recovery, this market now appears to be faltering.

The months of September and October are now with us and both of these months tend to be treacherous for the equity markets. We would not be surprised to see more of a two way trading market before it eventually falls on its own weight and resumes a downward path. This is what we expect to happen, however, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to give us the perfect timing for that event.

Click Here For Today’s Video and we will show you graphically what we expect to happen to the NASDAQ Index.

The Death of an Energy ETF....RIP DXO

It has been no secret that the CFTC is looking into many exchange traded notes and exchange traded funds that deal in the energy markets, along with other futures and other investment vehicles, to see how the role of speculators has played in the price swings in the commodity markets. Today came the announcement that one ETN is going to be killed (ergo redeemed) as a result. Deutsche Bank announced that it will redeem all outstanding units of its PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSE: DXO). The financial firm said that limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the notes have resulted in a “regulatory event” as defined in the terms of the notes… and this is causing Deutsche Bank to redeem the notes.....complete story

Oil Hovers Above $68 as US crude Inventories Drop

(AP:LONDON) Oil prices hovered above $68 a barrel Wednesday after a two day plunge as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be recovering. Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 60 cents to $68.29 a barrel by midday European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday lost $1.91 to settle at $68.05. Oil sank almost $5 a barrel in the first two days of the week as investors worried that a global economic recovery this year would be slow and may not justify the big rallies in stocks and commodities since March.

U.S. stock indexes fell about 2 percent Tuesday.

Investors were cheered somewhat when the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories plunged 3.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected the API numbers to drop 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department reports mandatory supply figures later on Wednesday, while refiners voluntarily report the API numbers. There were also signs Tuesday that the U.S. economy the biggest consumer of oil is improving.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index rose in August, indicating an expansion for the first time since January 2008. And the National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales rose to the highest level in more than two years.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 1.81 cents to $1.80 a gallon and heating oil gained 2.41 cents to $1.78 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 3.6 cents to $2.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was up 67 cents at $68.40.

Bloomberg Technical Analysis: Oil Uptrend Intact Until a Drop Below $66

Crude oil, which fell from a 10 month high of $75 a barrel in New York last week, remains in an uptrend and a sustained move lower isn’t likely unless prices settle below $66, National Australia Bank Ltd. said. Oil may climb to its recent highs in coming weeks even as the volatility in prices reflected uncertainty among traders, according to Gordon Manning, a Sydney based technical analyst. He correctly predicted Aug. 5 that the market wouldn’t settle below $66 a barrel on its way to a new high for 2009. “It’s not a downtrend in my books,” Manning said in a phone interview today. “It certainly hasn’t pushed on with the sort of aggression that I thought it might do, but there’s not enough damage to really get too worried”.....Read the complete article

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Markets Close Sharply Lower, Bulls Still Have Slight Advantage Near Term

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. The stock index bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage, but are fading heading into the historically bearish months of September and October.

Crude oil closed down $1.70 at $68.26 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh three week low and were pressured by a big sell off in the U.S. stock market and a stronger U.S. dollar. Crude bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Natural gas closed down 15.5 cents at $2.822 today. Prices closed near the session low today and did notch another fresh contract and seven year low. The bears are still in firm technical control. There are still no early technical clues of a market low being close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 59 points at 79.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

I was focused on writing the 4th issue for subscribers, due out the second week of September, but I came across a research article I wanted to share with readers. Martin King, an energy analyst at First Energy in Calgary is the latest to trot out the “it’s darkest before the dawn buy natural gas stocks now” theme, in a 5 page note on August 31. I’ll tell you about his key points in a minute. But first, I want to say this guy has a track record that I follow. Back on February 19 of this year, he put out a similar research note on natural gas stocks that was uncannily accurate. Just like now, sentiment for natural gas stocks was very low, and he stuck his neck out saying it’s time to be a contrarian and buy. And natural gas stocks did have a strong spring much stronger than I anticipated.....complete article

Crude Oil Retreats as U.S. Equities Decline on Earnings Concern

Crude oil retreated as U.S. equities declined on concern that the recent stock-market rally has outpaced the outlook for financial company earnings. Oil dropped and stocks declined for a third day as analysts said insurance company shares had risen too far. Prices climbed as much as $1.41 a barrel earlier today when reports showed that manufacturing in the U.S. and China, the two biggest energy consuming countries, expanded in August. Crude oil for October delivery fell 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $69.50 a barrel at 11:21 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 56 percent this year. Brent crude oil for October settlement slipped 6 cents to $69.59 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.....complete article

Refiners In China At Risk As The Government May Delay Price Hike

Crude oil price rebounds to 70.2 in European morning as strong China PMI eases demand worries. Trading will likely remain thin before NY session opens. The US government will report ISM manufacturing data today. After market close, the American Petroleum Institute will report its estimates on oil inventory last week and this will act a guideline in forecasting the figures by the US Energy Department. Stock markets in Europe drop. UK's FTSE 100 Index slides -1.4% to 4843 while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 lose -1.6% and -1% respectively. UK's manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 in August after rising to 50.2 in the prior month. This disappointed the market as consensus forecast was a further gain to 51.5. In the Eurozone, unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in August from 9.4% a month ago. Although the reading came out as expected, it's indeed the highest level in 10 years, suggesting the 16 nation region' s job market remained weak.....Complete Story

UNG Just Get's More and More Interesting

I have received some "entertaining" emails and comments from fellow traders about the fact that even with all of the negative and controversial news surrounding UNG I do maintain a small swing position in UNG. After 20 years of this I have just developed a habit for making sure I am in the most "news worthy" trades, some how, good or bad.

I just found this in my in box from Phil's Stock World.....

Shares of the natural gas exchange traded fund have slipped 4.4% lower today to reach a 5 year low of $10.64. Despite the present weakness in UNG, one investor was seen making far term bullish bets on the fund by targeting the April 2010 contract. It appears that the trader established a bullish reversal play by shedding 3,000 puts at the April 10 strike for 1.85 apiece in order to purchase 3,000 calls at the higher April 11 strike for 1.82 each. The trader receives a net credit of 3 pennies per contract and has positioned himself to add to his gains if shares rally higher than $11.00 by expiration. The short put position indicates that the investor is happy to have shares put to him at an effective price of $8.15 in the event that the put options land in the money by expiration. Shares need only remain higher than $10.00 for this individual to retain the 3 cent credit indefinitely.

This will be an amazing trade, for someone, somehow, someway.

Crude Oil Falls the Most in a Month as Global Equities Slump

Crude oil prices fell the most in a month as Chinese equities led a global slump on concern a slowdown in lending may derail an economic recovery in the world’s second largest energy consuming country. Oil futures declined for the first time in three days after the Shanghai Composite Index, China’s benchmark, tumbled 6.7 percent on a report that the nation’s banks cut lending. U.S., Asian and European stocks followed the Chinese market lower. “All of what we are seeing today can be blamed on the Chinese stock-market selloff,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “The Chinese markets have helped support commodities. Price rises have been based on expectations of increased economic growth and demand in China”.....Read Complete Article

Oil Drops as Stockpile Concerns Cap Gains on Economic Optimism

Crude oil fell for the first day in three in New York as concern over above-average distillate fuel stockpiles capped a rally built on speculation that demand will increase as the global economy recovers. U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose to a four week high of 162.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said Aug. 26. That’s near the highest level since 1983. Separately, the United Arab Emirates’ state owned company eased cuts on crude oil supply for the first time in seven months, a sign OPEC members may be overshooting their output targets. “As we get into the autumn season we’ll focus on distillate fuels and right now inventories are at very high levels and then we have the floating storage off Europe”.....Complete article

Crude Oil Will Be Bounded Between 65-75 In Coming Months

Early last week, worries on credit tightening by the Chinese Government triggered selloffs in risky assets. In the commodity universe, the base metal complex got the biggest hit as the government's massive stimulus plan has encouraged expansion in various industries. Should the government tighten lending, many projects may have to be postponed or cancelled.However, later in the week, strong macro economic data boosted sentiment again and improved market sentiment helped commodities pared some of the losses made earlier. However, the Jefferies/Reuters CRB Index still lost -0.6% over the week. Crude oil price rose for the second consecutive day last Friday as encouraging economic data.....Read Complete Article