Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Rare Glimpse into MarketClub....Once a Year 2 Week Trial, Now Open!


I'll keep this short as I know you're busy, I just got word from my inside contact at MarketClub, that they're opening up the premium service for a no cost 2 week trial!

Just click here to get instant access here....

There are 4 powerful tools available to members that you, as a free trial member, will have access to. Smart Scan, Trade School, Chart Analysis, and Data Central will be opened up just for you.

The other major bonus about this trial is that their, customer support team will be providing UNLIMITED support! You can call or email for an instant response (I know because I've used it) to any question, comment or concern. They've added another support person (hired a month ago just to train her) to ensure that all calls and emails get answered as quickly as possible.

Again, here's that link and I'll get you more info a little bit later, but I'd recommend you jump on this now.


Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening


Crude oil closed up $1.10 at $83.47 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11 week high. Prices also closed at a bullish monthly high close. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained solid upside momentum this week.

Natural gas closed down 10.6 cents at $3.867 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh contract low close. Prices also closed at a technically bearish monthly and quarterly low close today. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 44 points at 81.29 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a mildly bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 82.52.


Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


Share

Crude Oil Rises to 11 Week High as U.S. Dollar Slips Against Euro


Crude oil surged to an 11 week high in New York as the dollar declined against the euro, bolstering investor demand for commodities. Oil rose as much as 1.7 percent after the greenback fell against the common currency for the third time in four days. Prices slipped from the day’s highs after an Energy Department report today showed that supplies of crude oil rose by a greater than forecast 2.93 million barrels last week and that gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased.

“The market is focused on the U.S. dollar today,” said Sean Brodrick, a natural resource analyst with Weiss Research in Jupiter, Florida. “If we were trading on the fundamentals, the crude oil and gasoline numbers would be sending prices lower.” Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.01, or 1.2 percent, to $83.38 a barrel at 1:35 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 5.1 percent this quarter. Oil traded at $83.45 a barrel before the release of the report at 10:30 a.m. in Washington.

Futures touched $83.76, the highest level since reaching $83.95 on Jan. 11. The May contract reached $85.43 a barrel on the same day. “The target du jour is $83.95, and if we are able to get through there, we will test $85.43,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. The dollar fell to $1.3534 versus the euro, down 0.9 percent from $1.3414 yesterday.....Read the entire article.

Candlestick Formations You Need To Learn

Share

Phil Flynn: Springtime in the Oil Market


Ah spring.

The birds are chirping, the trees are budding and of course the oil market is rallying. Strong data on spending and a lot of springtime optimism set oil up for a big time rally, in fact the biggest in about 6 weeks. It is very possible that the rally would not have been as strong if it were not for the fact that many traders were absent as they prepared for Passover and the joys of spring break and Easter. That is not to say that the oil market did not have compelling reasons to rally because it did.

The euro rallied as Greece sold a 5 billion euro 7 year bond issue. Good consumer data and stories out of China that PetroChina will spend at least $60 billion in the next decade on overseas acquisitions in a bid to control oil and gas fields. We also had geo-political concerns arising from the terrorist bombing in Moscow and stories in the paper about attack scenarios surrounding Iran and yes indeed the market had a lot of compelling bullish stories. There was even more to rally about out of Nigeria from rebels promising more chaos. The problem for the bulls is that despite all those reasons to rally, the market remains range bound as it has been for months.

At the same time today there is a lot of bearish news coming out of OPEC .The Wall Street Journal reports that, “On Monday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries indicated that it is moving to boost production, demonstrating again its commitment to trying to keep oil prices from rising too high. And the closely watched relationship between current and future crude prices is starting to shift in a manner that indicates investors may be betting on surplus supply in the future.” The Journal goes on to say, “Recently, however, a move to the top end of that range had some traders anticipating a breakout move to a higher price. That reflected a belief that the economy was improving and growth in developing markets would drain what had been plentiful supplies. But the breakout hasn't occurred.

And traders have become less willing to pay a high premium to lock in supplies months down the road. That can be best seen in the narrowing of the gap between the price of oil for immediate delivery and the price for future delivery a sign that buyers think supply may be more robust than demand in the future.” The Financial Times Carola Hoyos reports that OPEC, “has revived projects that they have put on hold when oil prices collapsed to close to $30 dollars a barrel last year. Abdalla El-Badri, OPEC secretary General said that all 35 projects that had been delayed or considered to be canceled are now backing on track.

The FT also reports that, “Oil prices could stay within the $70-$80 a barrel range for 10 years, the OPEC oil cartel said on Monday, arguing that lower prices would deter investment in new energy supply but higher prices would hamper economic growth. “For the next decade, nominal prices are assumed to stay in the $70-$80 a barrel range, while longer term they are assumed to remain in the $70-$100 a barrel range,” the cartel said in a paper for the International Energy Forum, the oil consumers and producers’ gathering that starts on Tuesday in Cancun, Mexico.”

For months we have been saying that oil is locked in a range. We also feel that oil is eventually going to break out to the downside. We feel that rising rates on the long end of the yield curve and the historic inverted 10 year swap trading under 10 year yields is sign allying a major shift in the global market place. The market place is signaling that we will have to soon start planning on a removal of economic stimulus or face the reality of problems in financing our debt. This is a long term negative for oil even as oil has its strongest seasonal upside tendencies in the beauty of spring.

You can contact Phil at pflynn@pfgbest.com and don't forget to catch him daily on the Fox Business Channel.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share

The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same


Last month, on February 10th to be exact, we shared with you the "52 Week Friday rule". We showed you that when a market is closing at a 52 week high on a Friday, you should go long. In case you missed this video, which you can watch here , we show you that when a market is closing at a 52 week high on a Friday, you should go long. The rest of the rules are in this video that you should watch as it has been working with amazing regularity. The rest of the rules are in this video that you should watch as it has been working with amazing regularity.

Apple fit the rules perfectly last Friday 3/26 at $230.97. This was an all time high close for Friday in this stock. The rules stated in the video say you should exit this market on the opening on Tuesday, the 30th of March. Having done so you have exited at $236.67 for gain of $5.70 before commissions. This represented a little over a 2% gain in just over 6 hours of market time with very little risk.
So when we hear people say that things have changed in the market and that they are completely different from what they used to be, we have to disagree. We think this is a good example why.

This trading secret came from a trader named Bill... I am keeping his last name private as Bill is a very low key guy and shuns any publicity. Using his special trading technique, Bill made millions and millions of dollars from his office. The best part is that this technique is still working more than 30 years after we learned about it. Now it's time for the next generation of traders to learn Bill's secret.

Bill didn't even have a name for this killer trading technique. So it was named "The 52 week new highs on Friday rule".

As always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Have you traded using the "52 Week Friday rule"? If so, let us know how it went, but regardless of whether you have or not, please leave a comment.


Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Crude oil climbs further to as high as 82.95 so far today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 83.16 resistance. Break there will confirm that whole rally from 69.5 has resumed and should target a test on 83.95 high next. On the downside, below 81.77 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again and argue that consolidations from 83.16 is still in progress. But after all, we'd still expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring another rise.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart.

Free Trading Video: Day Trading Made Simple

Share

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening


Crude oil closed up $0.21 at $82.38 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and have regained upside momentum this week. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $83.47 a barrel.

Natural gas closed up 6.7 cents at $3.983 today. Prices closed near the session high today on tepid short covering after hitting another fresh contract low early on. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 12 points at 81.74 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.


Why Gold Will Not Make New Highs or Lows This Year


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Tuesday


Crude oil rebound's strongly overnight but after all it's still bounded in established range below 83.16. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could still be seen but downside is expected to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring another rise. Break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will indicate that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


Share

Monday, March 29, 2010

New Video: Why Gold Will Not Make New Highs or Lows This Year


Gold has had some dramatic moves in the last eighteen months and we expect it will have some equally dramatic moves in the future, but not right now.

While we recognize that gold is one of the few commodity markets that people are really passionate about, the purpose of this article is not to take sides either with the gold bugs or those who reject the argument that gold is forever. Rather, we want to discuss our interpretation of the markets cycle.

After spot gold made an all time high against the dollar on December 2 at $1,226.37, gold has been in retreat mode. For the for the past several months gold has been in a broad trading range, seemingly unable to move one way or another. This process has created frustration from bulls and bears alike.

Here is the dirty little secret about the gold market. It can be a horrible investment and here's why:

Gold first started trading in the 80's and when gold opened up the public clamored to buy into the gold futures market and guess who sold it to them? Thats right it was the pros, the guys who made their living trading. As a result, gold hit an all time high of around $850 an ounce back then and it took almost 25 years for gold to move over that level, at least in dollar terms. We don't know what your timeline is, but 25 to 30 years is an awful long time to get even again.

So what is really happening in this market?

Everyone is aware of the problems in Europe with Greece, Portugal and a host of yet to be named countries. We all know that the huge amount of money being printed, coupled with the bank failures abroad contribute to the dollars declining value. These events, in conjunction with the American governments actions, also contribute to the devaluation of the dollar. The government claims that this is beneficial to exports, but the bottom line is that the purchasing power of the American dollar continues to erode in world markets.

Based on the declining value of world currency against gold you might ask "why isn't gold trading at $2,000 or even $3,000 an ounce"? What is wrong with this market? This is because a great deal of what goes into the gold market is psychological and reacts to cyclic trends driven by both psychological and economic factors.

So what does all this have to do with the price of gold now? It has everything to do with gold and nothing to do with gold.

Here is what we've been able to observe in the last several years in gold and seems to be holding true. It is something that you should pay attention to if you're interested in the next big move in the gold market.

Before gold can move higher it needs to create what we call an "energy field". The most recent energy fields in gold were between May 12, 2006 and September 20, 2007. This 17 month energy field saw gold prices oscillate between a broad trading range bound by $730.08 (upside) and $541.80 (downside). That energy field produced enough power to propel gold to the new high of $1,012.40 on March 17, 2008. This marked the first time gold exceeded, in dollar terms, the highs set in the early 80's mentioned earlier.

The energy fields we have observed for gold are taking somewhere between 17 and 18 months to complete. If the energy field holds, then the December 3rd 2009 high of $1,226.37 should remain in place for quite some time. If the same cycle remains true then the recent lows that we witnessed, at $1,050, should also remain intact as they represent the 15 to 16 month cycle low.

With the lows in place the next question becomes when is the next cyclical high in gold? Based on the existing cycle, we can expect the next major gold high in 2011.

To summarize: I expect gold to be locked in a broad trading range for the next 12 months bounded by the December 09 highs of 1,226.37 and the lows of $1,050.00. If the gold cycle holds true, we expect that gold tops the $1,226.37 marker by April or May of 2011.

On the on the upside we will also be looking for gold to make a natural cyclic high in October or November of 2011. It's impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy, however when we look at the cycles in gold this reads as a pretty good bet.

No matter what happens we expect gold will offer some great trading opportunities that investors and traders should be able to take advantage of.

http://www.ino.com/info/542/CD3116/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

As we always discuss, in trading one should approach gold or any other market with a game plan and proper money management stops. The key to success in this decade will be an investors willingness to move in and out of asset classes such as gold and be well diversified into more than one asset class. That way you wont be left holding the bag for the next 25 years. Our World Commodity Portfolio is a good example of this approach and one I believe will serve investors well in the coming years.

So just click here to watch today's new video and as always the video is free to watch. Please take a minute to leave a comment and let us know what you think about the direction of this gold market.



Also watch....The "Super Cycle" in Gold and How It Will Affect Your Pocketbook in 2010



Share

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Tuesday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Learn To Trade Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Gold ETF's


Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Monday Evening


Crude oil closed up $2.26 at $82.26 a barrel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today amid a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher stock index prices. Crude oil bulls have the overall near term technical advantage and regained some upside momentum today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the March high of $83.47 a barrel.

Natural gas closed down 0.2 cents at $3.928 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and set another fresh contract low. Bears have the solid overall near term technical advantage. There are still no early technical clues that a market bottom is close at hand. Prices are in a three month old downtrend on the daily bar chart.

The U.S. dollar index closed down 40 points at 81.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit taking pressure from recent gains. The bulls still have the solid overall near term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 83.00.

Get 4 FREE Trading Videos from INO TV!

Share

Phil Flynn: Range Bound


We can talk about upcoming data from China or relief that the Greece crisis seems resolved for the moment but the truth is oil is still locked in a range. This is a market where the bullish and bearish forces have been in a stale mate and a quagmire of epic proportions. For every bullish argument there is a bearish argument to counter it as crude oil waits to find a definitive direction.


Overnight oil seemed to be getting some support from geopolitical events as well as what some say is the expectations of strong economic data coming out of the US and China. A terror attack on a Moscow subway and a story about a Saudi ship firing on a ship from the United Arab Emirates are just as astonishing as the report on Friday that a North Korean Snipe supposedly sunk a South Korean ship that was later denied. Strong demand hopes have been tempered by rising yield in the long end of the treasury markets raising fears that interest rates will have to go higher. Oil has a lot on its plate and is keeping the market in lockdown.

OPEC put off its next meeting until October but at least one OPEC member seems to be optimistic about the future. Dow Jones reported that Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Co said that OPEC would raise production in October if the world economy picks up. Ghanem says that, "If the economy improves, demand picks up and prices go up; that will add pressure on the economy and OPEC will take action. In October the situation will be examined and action will be taken accordingly. Ghanem told Dow Jones that, “Change of OPEC production level is a more complex process--it follows the market but it looks at supply and demand, and whether the market is being driven by fundamentals, geopolitics or psychological factors as well as the plans for production from other member countries," he said.


Bloomberg News Margot Habiby reports that oil producers and consumers, trying to avoid a repeat of the $115 a barrel price swing in 2008, will seek a “broad agreement” on improving market transparency and curbing volatility, according to the International Energy Forum. Habiby says that, “The IEF wants greater sharing of information on supply, demand, production and futures market trading, and greater cooperation on forecasting by groups such as OPEC, the IEF and the International Energy Agency," he said ahead of the IEF meeting in Cancun. A must read on Bloomberg.


You can reach Phil at pflynn@pfgbest.com and be sure to watch him every day on The Fox Business Network.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share

How to Find Market Tops for Gold & the Dow

Last week the general market continued to grind its way higher for yet another week. Overall I feel the market is very much over bought. We all know the market can stay in extreme overbought levels for extended periods of time making it very difficult to pick tops.

This is the reason I do not try to pick tops, but rather wait for a top to form before putting my money to work. While a bottom can be made in 1 day, tops tend to take days and some times months to complete.

A few things really stood out to me when looking back on last week’s price action.

1. Gold (GLD Fund) was only up 0.29% for the week while the gold mining stocks (GDX Fund) was down over 3.5%. This strong divergence really has me concerned about the price of gold in the near term. Gold stocks generally lead gold and if they are down 10x more than gold last week, we better watch out....

2. The US Dollar broke out and started to rally posting a gain of 1% for the week. It is definitely weird to see gold move higher when the US dollar is rising…

Gold GLD Daily Chart

Gold has been trading sideways/down since December. I see this large 5 month pullback as a bull flag and expect to see much higher prices for gold long term. But I don’t count my eggs before they hatch, so I continue to focus on the daily and intraday chart patterns for low risk trading opportunities.

Friday we saw gold close very strong for the day. It looks very much like a reversal candle but with the price trading under the mini head & shoulders neck line and with the US Dollar in rally mode again, I don’t think the stars are aligned enough for me to put money to work just yet.

Gold is currently trading in a major congestion zone. Until there is a breakout of this zone, I think setups will not be very accurate.



Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – JANUARY

This chart shows the January 2010 peak in the stock market. As you can see prices became choppy with strong up and down movements before we saw the sharp drop.

Also note the NYSE new highs line. As the market became choppy new highs began to drop quickly. This indicated the market internals were weakening and led to an 8% drop over the next couple weeks.



Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. NYSE New Highs Divergence – MARCH

This chart in my opinion looks much the same as January. You can see the Reversal candle from the February lows and the strong rally to the current price, as of Friday.

Notice how the market is getting choppy. Also last Thursday the Dow gave us a reversal candle. But this time the reversal candle is to the down side.

Also note the NYSE New Highs line. It has dropped sharply indicating the market internals are weakening once again.

This is what trading is all about… finding things that are out of whack and waiting for a low risk setup in order to make a profit.



Weekend Trading Conclusion:

In short, the stock market is over bought and about to roll over. I do understand that this grind higher could last another week or so, which is why I am focusing on short/quick intraday movements like Friday’s SP500 Intraday Low Risk Setup, and not buying etf funds to hold for a few weeks. Most of you know I do not chase prices higher simply because down side risk increased when buying into an over extended rally.

I feel gold, silver and oil will move together and at this time, I don’t like their charts for trading. With any luck we could get some setups this week, but not counting anything just yet.

Just click here if you would like to receive Chris Vermeulen's Real Time Low Risk ETF Trading Signals.






Share

Crude Oil Rises the Most in Five Weeks as Dollar Weakens Against Euro


Crude oil rose the most in more than five weeks as the dollar fell on European Union plans to help Greece and on signals that economic growth will accelerate. Oil topped $82 a barrel as the greenback dropped following an International Monetary Fund and European Union pledge to help finance Greece’s debt. A weaker U.S. currency bolsters the appeal for raw materials as an alternative investment. Consumer spending in the U.S., the world’s biggest energy consuming country, climbed in February for a fifth consecutive month.

“The resolution of the Greek crisis is giving oil a boost,” said Phil Flynn, vice president of research at PFGBest in Chicago. “The dollar is weaker, which is helping all of the commodity markets today.” Crude oil for May delivery rose $2.13, or 2.7 percent, to $82.13 a barrel at 9:49 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are heading for the biggest gain since February 16. Futures touched $82.25, the highest since March 18.

Prices are up 3.5 percent in the first quarter, peaking at a 15 month high of $83.95 a barrel on Jan. 11. Leaders of the 16 nation euro region endorsed a Franco-German proposal for a mix of IMF and bilateral loans at market interest rates on March 26, while voicing confidence that Greece won’t need outside help to cut its deficit, the biggest in the 16 nation euro region. The dollar fell to $1.3457 to the euro, down 0.4 percent from $1.341 on March 26. The dollar index, measured against six major currencies, dropped 0.4 percent today to 81.364.....Read the entire article.

Candlestick Formations You Need To Learn

Share

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Crude Oil Climbs From Two Week Low on Speculation Energy Demand Recovering


Crude oil rose for the first time in four days on expectations fuel demand will increase as the global economic recovery gained momentum and receding concerns over Greece’s debt crisis bolstered the euro. Oil climbed in New York the dollar fell against the euro following the International Monetary Fund and European Union pledge to help Greece finance the 16 nation region’s largest debt. Investors buy commodities as the greenback declines to offset inflation concerns and as an alternative investment.

“This rescue plan settles down the fears about the Eurozone going into a double dip recession so that’s bullish for crude,” said Anthony Nunan, an assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp. in Tokyo. “People feel the dollar will continue to be weak because of the long term policy to keep interest rates low and the money supply high.” Crude oil for May delivery rose as much as 49 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $80.49 a barrel in after hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $80.46 at 11:42 a.m. in Singapore.

The contract dropped 0.7 percent to $80 on March 26, the lowest close in almost two weeks, after a report showed the U.S. economy expanded less in the fourth quarter than analysts had estimated. Prices fell 1.2 percent for the week as U.S. crude stockpiles surged to a seven month high and the dollar rose against the euro on uncertainty over Greece’s debt problems.....Read the entire article.


Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!


Share

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook


Crude oil continued to engage in sideway trading below 83.16 last week. More consolidations would still be seen this week but after all, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring another rise. Break of 83.16 will target 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will indicate that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support instead.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.

In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!


Share

Where is Crude Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.





Here is a preview of our MarketClub Trade Triangle Chart Analysis and Smart Scan technology



Share

Friday, March 26, 2010

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Friday Evening


Crude oil closed lower on Friday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. First support is last Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.209. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.424. First support is today's low crossing at 3.923. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed lower due to profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally but remains above February's high crossing at 81.70. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends this week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 82.52. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 81.03. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.86.

Here’s a Great Alternative to High Price Trading Courses

Share

Phil Flynn: Greece is Bad. Very, Very Bad!


Trichet trashed Greece. ECB head Jean Claude Trichet read Greece the riot act reversing course on the strengthening Euro and making the world think twice about a happy outcome after this Greek tragedy. Trichet scolded that Euro zone states need to be more responsible. ‘Everything going in the direction of euro zone members shying away from responsibilities is bad in our eyes”. How bad? Well “If the IMF or some other body exercises the responsibility in lieu of the Euro group or instead of governments, it is evidently very, very bad," he said. (Gee I wonder who he’s talking about.)

Trichet also said that the “mistake” of giving false figures must not be repeated. (Mistake? We have people in jail that made that type of mistake.) Trichet warned that Euro Zone countries must not an abandon an inch of their current responsibility (which probably confused many members that are on the metric system. He should have said that they should not abandon 2.54 centimeters of their current responsibility).

Of course that responsibility is to the Maastricht Treaty. You know that the one that led to the creation of the euro currency and also created what is called “the pillar structure of the European Community”. It was also the treaty that says countries belonging to the common currency zone year on year borrowing could not exceed 3 percent of GDP and that a country's total debt could not exceed 60 percent of its economic output.....Read the entire article.


Get Started Trading Crude Oil Today....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons


Share

Crude Oil Is Little Changed as GDP Report, Dollar's Weakening Send Mixed Signals


Crude oil fluctuated after a government report that the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2009 rose less than analysts forecast and the dollar weakened, increasing the investment appeal of commodities. Oil traded within a range of $1.87 a barrel as the Commerce Department reported gross domestic product expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate, less than the median estimate of 5.9 percent by analysts in a Bloomberg News survey. The dollar dropped as much as 1.1 percent against the euro.

“Since the GDP number came out, the market has struggled a bit” because it didn’t meet the consensus, said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. Crude oil for May delivery dropped 14 cents to $80.39 a barrel at 10:26 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have increased 48 percent from a year earlier. Oil declined 0.7 percent this week.

The dollar fell for the first time in four days versus the euro after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet toned down his opposition to the International Monetary Fund’s involvement in a Greek rescue plan. The U.S. currency dropped 1 percent to $1.3407 from a 10 month high of $1.3273 yesterday.

“People are watching the dollar as they await clear direction from inventory numbers,” Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, in Winchester, Massachusetts. Brent crude oil for May settlement rose 14 cents to $79.75 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.....Read the entire article.


New Video: Dollar Index Going Higher?


Share

New Video: Dollar Index Going Higher?


It has been a while since we looked at the dollar index, so today we decided to dissect this market and look at it step by step.

What is happening in this market is very interesting and we think you will see in this short video just what we have in mind.

Just click here to watch "Dollar Index Going Higher" and as always, our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. Do you agree with our analysis of the dollar index? Please feel free to leave a comment and let us know what you think.


Also, take a few minutes to watch "Swoosh Goes Nike"


Share

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook For Friday Morning


Crude oil is still bounded in choppy sideway trading below 83.16 and intraday bias remains neutral. Nevertheless, even in case of another fall, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring rally resumption. Break of 83.16 will target a retest of 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will argue that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .

Secrets of the 52 Week High Rule

Share

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Friday?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.






Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Thursday Evening


Crude oil closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline below the 20 day moving average crossing at 81.34. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed lower on Thursday renewing the decline off January's high. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 3.502 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.472 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.262. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.472. First support is today's low crossing at 3.989. Second support is weekly support crossing at 3.502.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it extended Wednesday's breakout above February's high crossing at 81.70. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.80 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.48. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.83. Second support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.80.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of the U.S. Dollar ETF UUP

Share

Phil Flynn: Big Build Bananza!


Maybe the oil bulls can take some comfort in the fact that oil was unable to close below $80 despite the fact that the euro hit a ten month low and the stock market actually closed lower. (It can do that you know.) Oil prices shook off a mighty crude oil inventory build according to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by gigantic 7.3 million barrels from the previous week.

The build was on the back of strong imports which averaged 9.4 million barrels per day which was up a cool 969,000 barrels from last week. Yet draw downs in products kept the oil somewhat supported. The EIA reported a fall of 2.7 million barrels in gasoline supply and a 2.4 million barrel drop in distillates. The drop was inspired in part by strong gasoline demand. The EIA says that gasoline demand rose 2.7%, or 238,000 b/d, to 9.087 million barrels a day which according to David Bird at Dow Jones was the highest weekly level since November 20.

Still year over year demand was down 13,000 barrels per day for the corresponding week a year ago. Bird says that the gain in gasoline led a 504,000 barrel per day, or 2.7%, rise in total oil demand for the week, to 19.336 million barrels per duty which was a two week high.Increasing gas demand usually is a sign that things for consumers are getting a little better and we may see that optimism grow in gas demand numbers first.

Over the last few weeks I have scoffed at strong gas demand numbers but the trend may have to be now taken more seriously. Perhaps the rally in the stock market has been more reflective of an improving backdrop for the economy than we have expected. Assuming we avoid a double dip maybe we can see a better than expected summer driving season. Still that does not mean that retail gas prices will go straight up. With gas production rising we should be close to the seasonal top.

Still for oil the dollar remains the key. Yesterday the flight to the dollar helped sink commodities as Portugal’s debt rating was downgraded. The EU members meet today and tomorrow and the outcome of this meeting may be the catalyst for the next big move in commodities. We are still buying breaks and selling rallies at what we project will be the high or low for that particular day. Long term position traders, both bulls and bears, will have their days but until we break out of the larger range there will be mounting frustration. Iron condors may be another way to play a market that is locked in a range. Long term players are just in a rut.

Catch Phil daily on the Fox Business Network. And for buy and sell points across the commodity spectrum, just pick up the phone and call Phil at 800-935-6487.


Learn to Trade Futures in Just 90 seconds!


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook For Thursday Morning


Intraday bias in crude oil remains neutral as consolidations from 83.16 continues. In case of another fall, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring rally resumption. Break of 83.16 will target a retest of 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will argue that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart .


Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons


Share

Sure Looks Like A Top? VIX, NYSE, DOW & GOLD

I think many of you will find this article interesting as I show several different indicators which point to an imminent correction for stocks and precious metals.

Last Wednesday’s report I showed how the current price of the index was almost identical to the January peak from where prices dropped nearly 10%. The report was called “28 Day Sector Rotation, Commodity & Index”. We did get the first sign of toppy market last Friday with the sharp one day sell off as I expected.

Today, one week later we are now that much closer to a 3-8% drop which is shown in the charts below. It’s important to remember that bottoms tend to happen quickly while a market topping is more of a process which is why so many people take big losses trying tip a top.

The market will continue to move up even when it is way overbought. It’s only when extreme levels are reached that tops can try to be played.

The Volatility Index – Measures Fear & Complacency in the Market

While the VIX is not something I follow on a daily basis it is important to keep an eye on it. When extreme low levels are reached we know the market (John Dow traders) are feeling confident and buying up everything they can get their hands on.

I like to trade with the trend but when extreme levels are reached I start looking for a low risk setup to the short side (profit in a falling market) using leveraged ETFs.

As you can see from the chart of the VIX and SP500 below, each time the VIX tested the support level the market made a top. Again the VIX is not a great timing tool but it helps me decide which trading strategy I should focus on (swing or day trading) and if I should be looking to buy or selling the market.



NYSE New Highs-Lows Index

If a chart is worth a thousand words then this chart is worth 2000. It cannot get any simpler that the NYSE new high-low index.

The green line is the SP500 index which is straight forward. The Red line is the number of stocks on the NYSE which have reached a new high.

How strong is the market if is keeps going up while the underlying stocks are getting weaker? Something has got to give and it will most likely be to the down side.



Dow Jones Industrial Average – Daily Trend Chart

This chart adds another layer of clarity. You can see what happened last January when everyone was buying stocks thinking life is good, trading is easy. As my trading buddy David Banister from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says “Buy when the Cry, Sell when they Yell”and that’s what I am looking to do.

Today the Russell 2000 index (small cap stocks) sold down very hard. These stocks tend to lead the market both up and down. So the red flag is up and I am just waiting for the market to show me its hand so we can catch the next big move.

Coles Notes on Chart:
• Market is over bought and in dire need of a pullback
• The length of this steady rally is much longer than a normal rally
• The rate as which prices are rising is much to steep to be maintained
• The market is trading at the parallel trend line
• VIX is tell us people are buying and not worrying about any possible drop
• NYSE divergence is screaming Overbought....



GLD Gold Fund Trading

Gold is still in a major bull market but the recent price action from Dec up until now has been down as gold consolidates the large rally from 2009.

Looking at the chart below you can see the mini Head & Shoulders pattern. The neckline has now been broken and prices are falling. I almost had a buy signal for gold two days ago with the small move up and the candle closing above the previous days high. But because the price was still under the neckline (resistance) I decided to stand aside and live another day.



Mid-Week Gold Newsletter Conclusion:

In short, the market looks very strong but from a technical point of view it’s about to die of exhaustion in my opinion.

Gold, silver and oil I figure will move together which is sideways or down.

I am keeping a very close eye on things hoping prices unfold in a manor which will allow us to spot a low risk setup in the coming days as I would like to catch this drop if it happen. With any luck we could make 10-15% within a couple days using a leveraged ETF.

Just click here to receive Chris Vermeulen's Real Time ETF Trading Signals.






Share

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Thursday?

CNBC's Brian Shactman discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




Get Your FREE Preview of INO TV

Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Wednesday Evening


Crude oil closed lower on Wednesday as prices fell to a seven session low Wednesday due to a sharp rise in U.S. crude inventories and on a stronger dollar. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 7.25 million barrel increase in crude inventories for last week, which was significantly more than the 1.4 million barrel gain that analysts had been expecting. The mid range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO

Natural gas closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past four days. The low range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.511 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.308. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.511. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.093. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of natural gas ETF UNG

The U.S. Dollar closed sharply higher on Wednesday as worries over sovereign debt in Europe triggered today's rally. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.65 would confirm that a short term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 82.19. Second resistance is the May 2009 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 83.34. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.73. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.65.

Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Phil Flynn: Oil Bull Knockdown


Oil bulls got a shot to the solar plexus from the American Petroleum Institute but it may be a downgrade from Fitch rating services that delivers the knockout blow. The American Petroleum Institute blindsided the global oil markets last night by reporting a spectacular 7.5 million barrel weekly build in US crude oil supplies. The oil seemed to come out of nowhere and made the oil bulls get nervous but the bulls vowed to wait for what the Department of Energy might say today.

Will it really matter if another PIG goes down? Overnight the euro got hammered and the dollar soared on news that Fitch Ratings, as reported by Marketwatch, downgraded Portugal's long term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings to AA- from AA on Wednesday. Fitch said that the outlooks on the long term IDRs are negative and the downgrade reflects significant budgetary underperformance in 2009. Marketwatch quotes Douglas Renwick, associate director in Fitch's Sovereign team as saying, “A sizeable fiscal shock against a backdrop of relative macroeconomic and structural weaknesses has reduced Portugal's creditworthiness.

Talking about sizable shocks how about that crude drop! It seems that some of those import drops into the North East due top that freaky winter storm self corrected along with the stormy seas. Oil imports rebounded from surprise drops in California and the Northeast. The API said that crude Imports were up by 1.3 million barrels a day to a hefty 9.19 million barrels.

The API reported that gasoline supplies fell by 81,000 barrels with increased demand and refinery turnarounds helped supply fall. Distillates fell as refiners are focused on turnarounds and maxing out on more profitable gas. Mark Shenk of Bloomberg News points out those higher profits for making gasoline are prompting refiners to increase motor fuel production to a record for this time of year. Mr. Shenk points rose 2.3 percent to 8.96 million barrels of oil a day. That is the highest level since they began to keep records all the way back in 1983. Mr. Shenk says this was inspired by the fact that the crack spread has almost doubled to $13 this year. Demand is also rising! Barbara Powell of Bloomberg says that MasterCard Spending Pulse reported that U.S. gasoline consumption rose last week to the highest level since June, the fourth increase in five weeks.

Motorists bought an average 9.66 million barrels of gasoline a day in the week ended March 19, the second biggest credit card company said in its SpendingPulse report. Consumption was up 1.4 percent from the previous week and 1.8 percent above a year earlier. Demand for the past four weeks averaged 9.55 million barrels a day, the highest level since the week ended July 3 and 2.5 percent above the same period in 2009. Total fuel demand year to date is up 1.5 percent from the same period of 2009.

OPEC put off their September OPEC meeting till October because of Ramadan. That means another 30 days of cheating on production! Yippe!. Once again the market will focus on the dollar and the euro. The market's worst fear is that the crisis in Greece will spread to other PIIG nations (Portugal, Italy Ireland and of course Greece). That has put the market out of its comfort zone of being short the dollar and long the euro and of course being long crude oil. If more PIIGS start to fall then so too will oil. Forget about China demand for the moment and focus on what is really moving the market.

Phil Flynn can be reached at pflynn@pfgbest.com And don't forget to watch Phil every day on the Fox Business Network.

Get Started Trading Now....With 10 FREE Trading Lessons

Share

Crude Oil Drops as Report Shows U.S. Supplies Gained More Than Predicted


Crude oil fell after a government report showed a bigger than forecast increase in U.S. supplies and as the dollar surged to a 10 month high against the euro. Stockpiles rose 7.25 million barrels to 351.3 million last week, the Energy Department said. Inventories were forecast to climb 1.65 million barrels, according to a Bloomberg News survey. The greenback increased after Fitch Ratings cut Portugal’s credit grade. A stronger dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.

“The crude number was a lot bigger than what was expected,” said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “There hasn’t been much attention paid to the fundamentals lately. The market has been more focused on what happens to the dollar and equities.” Crude oil for May delivery dropped $1.04, or 1.3 percent, to $80.87 a barrel at 11:01 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have increased 1.9 percent in 2010 and 50 percent from a year earlier.

Imports of crude oil gained 12 percent to 9.4 million barrels a day last week, the highest level since September and the biggest change since August, the report showed. Gasoline stockpiles fell 2.72 million barrels to 224.6 million in the week ended March 19. A 1.5-million-barrel drop was forecast, according to the median of 16 analyst responses in the Bloomberg News survey. Inventories of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, declined 2.42 million barrels to 145.7 million, according to the department. A decrease of 985,000 barrels was forecast.....Read the entire article.

Just click here for your FREE trend analysis of crude oil ETF USO


Share

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook Wednesday Morning


Crude oil's rebound failed below 83.16 and the sharp retreat dragged 4 hours MACD back below signal line. Consolidations from 83.16 might extend further and intraday bias is turned neutral. Nevertheless, in case of deeper fall, we'd still expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 69.50 to 83.16 at 77.94 and bring rally resumption. Break of 83.16 will target a retest of 83.95 high. However, note that sustained trading below 77.94 fibo level will argue that rise from 69.50 is completed and deeper fall would possibly be seen to retest this support.

In the bigger picture, crude oil is still trading well inside medium term rising channel and the rise from 33.2 might still be in progress. Nevertheless, as such rise from 33.2 is treated as a correction to whole decline from 147.27 only, even in case of another high above 83.95, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, though, break of 69.50 support will now indicate that crude oil has topped out in medium term already and turn outlook bearish.....Nymex Crude Oil Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart

How to Use Money Management Stops Effectively

Share

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Where is Crude Oil Headed on Wednesday?

CNBC's Bertha Coombs discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed tomorrow.




How To Find Winning Trades In Any Market

Share

Crude Oil Market Commentary For Tuesday Evening


Crude oil closed higher due to a late day short covering rally on Tuesday. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a short term top is in or is near. Closes below last Monday's low crossing at 79.41 are needed to confirm that a short term top has been posted. If May renews the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at 85.43 is the next upside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 83.47. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 85.43. First support is Monday's low crossing at 80.89. Second support is Monday's low crossing at 78.86.

Natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Tuesday as it consolidates some of this winter's decline. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near term. If May extends this winter's decline, weekly support crossing at 4.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.550 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10 day moving average crossing at 4.357. Second resistance is the 20 day moving average crossing at 4.550. First support is Monday's low crossing at 4.093. Second support is weekly support crossing at 4.035.

The U.S. Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends last week's breakout above the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.69. The high range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near term. If June extends last week's rally, February's high crossing at 81.70 is the next upside target. If June renews this month's decline, the 38% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 79.17 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 81.35. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 81.70. First support is the 20 day moving average crossing at 80.69. Second support is the 10 day moving average crossing at 80.51.

Check out the new "Trend TV"

Share

ShareThis