Oil Rises Above $71 as Dollar Tumbles, OPEC Ministers Gather

Crude oil rose above $71 a barrel after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on output levels. Oil increased the most in more than two weeks and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas. “Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York. “These concerns are also reflected in the gold market, which broke through resistance at the important $1,000 level”.....Read the entire article

Schlumberger CEO Says Smaller Services Companies to Fold or Merge

Chief Executive Andrew Gould of oilfield services giant Schlumberger predicts that further consolidation in the services industry, as well as the fall of smaller U.S. rivals, is likely to occur in the year ahead, according to a report by Dow Jones Newswires.

"There will be even more consolidation of smaller services companies in the U.S., if not mortality for some, as some will just not be able to service their debts," Gould said at the Offshore Europe conference in Aberdeen, Scotland.

Gould cited the cancellation or delaying of industry projects, which has made capital less readily available, as one of the primary challenges the oilfield services sector has faced during 2009.

From the staff at Rigzone

Crude Oil Rises the Most in More Than a Month as Dollar Tumbles

Crude oil rose the most in more than a month after the dollar declined, spurring demand for commodities, and as OPEC ministers gathered in Vienna to decide on production levels. Oil topped $71 a barrel and gold climbed above $1,000 an ounce as the U.S. currency dropped to the lowest level this year against the euro and on speculation inflation will accelerate. The oil market is in “good shape,” Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said, signaling the group is unlikely to change output quotas.“Today’s move in oil is all about the dollar and inflation concerns,” said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy at MF Global in New York.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's consolidation from 67.43 is still in progress and further recover cannot be ruled out. But still, another fall is still in progress as long as 71.60 resistance holds. Break of 67.43 will indicate that fall from 75.0 has resumed for 65.23 support next. Break there will confirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has completed and will bring deeper fall to test this key support level. On the other hand, strong rebound above 65.23, followed by break of 71.60 resistance will suggest that fall from 75.0 is a correction only and rise from 58.32 is still in progress. Intraday bias will then be flipped back to the upside for a 75.0 and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2]. In the bigger picture, there is no.....Read the entire article

Venezuela, Iran Ink Oil Invest Deals for South Pars, Dokobuki Field

Iran and Venezuela signed three oil deals Sunday during a Venezuelan presidential visit as the Islamic republic tries to mitigate the risk of new sanctions, Iranian news agencies said Monday. The accords were signed as Tehran is coming under increased international pressure over its nuclear program, including a threat to enforce sanctions against import products to Iran. The semi-official Mehr news agency said on Monday that Iran and Venezuela signed three memorandums of understanding in the energy sector in Tehran on Sunday as part of a visit to the country by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They include two agreements of reciprocal investments in Iran and Venezuela each worth $760 million, according to Mehr and Shana, Iran's Oil Ministry news agency.....Read the entire article

Iran Sees OPEC Maintaining Current Oil Output

Iran, the second largest exporter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, predicted on Sunday the cartel will maintain current oil output at its meeting next week, despite producers being unhappy with the prevailing price of crude. "There is a feeling among OPEC oil ministers that the group wants to maintain current ouput levels," Mohammad Ali Khatibi, Iran's representative to OPEC, told AFP ahead of Wednesday's meeting of the group in Vienna. "I think it is unlikely we will see any noticeable change. Based on comments already made by OPEC ministers, the output ceiling will not change." OPEC, whose 12 members pump 40% of the world's oil, agreed in late 2008 to remove a massive 4.2 million barrels a day of output from the market in a bid to shore up crumbling prices......Read the entire article

BP: Best in Class

Stephanie Link, director of research for Action Alerts Plus Portfolio, argues that BP's recent oil discovery provides much needed growth potential.



Get a current trend analysis for BP.....Just Click Here!

Thin Trading Seen In Commodties While Stocks Surge

Crude oil price continues hovering around 68 level in European morning. We believe thin trading remains throughout the as US and Canada are on public holidays. Stock markets in Asia and Europe gain amid expectations that G-20 leaders will collaborate to oversee the global financial system. Stock markets in Asia advanced with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rising +1%. In Japan, Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed +1.3% to 10320. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index edged +0.68% higher to 2881 and Hong Kong&'s Hang Seng Index gained +1.5% to 20629. In Europe, benchmark shares surge. UK&'s FTSE 100 Index opens higher and is currently rising +2.6% to 4923. Both Germany&'s DAX and France&'s CAC 40 also add +1.5% to 5465 and 3651, respectively. Finance ministers and central bank.....Read the entire article

Oil Rises as Weaker Dollar Encourages Buying, Equities Climb

Crude oil rose for a second day as a weaker dollar encouraged investors to buy commodities and stronger equity markets signaled optimism the economic recovery remains on track. Oil rose, tracking stock markets in Europe and Asia, as the Group of 20 nations agreed on steps to shore up the global financial system. The U.S. currency weakened against the euro for a second day. All 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted OPEC will maintain its production target at 24.845 million barrels a day at a Sept. 9 meeting in Vienna. “Oil is a bit supported by the weaker dollar and stronger equities,” said Eugen Weinberg, a senior analyst with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “We know that OPEC will not cut, the question is how this will be taken by the market”.....Read the entire article

Crude Oil Falls Below $68 on Speculation Global Supplies Ample

Crude oil dropped below $68 a barrel on speculation supplies are ample as the end of summer driving in the U.S. compounds already weak global demand. A report tomorrow will probably show consumer credit in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer, fell for a sixth month as banks restricted lending and rising unemployment damped borrowing. OPEC member states are unlikely to change output levels when they meet this week, Agence France-Presse reported, citing Iran’s representative to the group, Mohammad Ali Khatibi.“The trade is kind of anticipating a period of slack seasonal demand coming up, which I think is possibly going to keep the upside fairly limited,” said Toby Hassall, research analyst with Commodity Warrants Australia Pty in Sydney. “We’ll just have to see if the refineries start to scale back their runs”.....Read the entire article

Natural Gas: Extreme Contango Suggests Caution for E&P Companies

The price of Natural Gas is hovering just below $3, which is about the median price over the past two decades. Or is it? While the spot price has garnered lots of headlines recently for its collapse, the future price has declined much much less so. The quoted price for a year from now is above $5. Clearly the spot price is very depressed relative to the future price. In fact, it is at a record percentage differential. In the chart below (click to enlarge), I have divided the one year forward price by the 1-month forward price. The mean spread has been 6%. You will see I included lines for +/- 2 standard deviations as well. The current relationship is more than 4 standard deviations from the mean. At this point.....Read the entire article

Where is Oil Headed Next Week?

CNBC's Sharon Epperson discusses the day's activity in the commodities markets, and looks ahead to where oil is likely headed next week.

Despite sliding prices, the LNG keeps coming

Despite the steady drop in natural gas prices, Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas terminals are expecting a steady stream of shipments in the coming weeks. Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal received an LNG shipment at its dock this week and a second tanker is due by the middle of next week. And the Trunkline LNG terminal in Lake Charles, La., could see as many as three new tanker loads of LNG in the coming weeks, according to Waterborne Energy, a Houston-based LNG market tracking firm. “The last place you would expect to see a potential 20 bcf build in LNG imports in today's weak natural gas environment would be the U.S. Gulf,” Waterborne Energy said in a report Thursday.....Read the entire article

Gold Shines Again While Crude Loses Glitter

Star of the week was obviously gold which broke out of recent broad trading range and set to resume the long uptrend with target above 1000. We find the rally impressive as the dollar remained range bounded. While momentum looks strong, we would be more convinced that the precious metal will make new high above 1033.9 if a close above 1000 is seen. We will have 3 central bank meetings in the coming week, namely RBNZ, BOE and BOC. While we expect no change in monetary policies, policymakers' outlook on economic development and exit strategies from stimulus should provide guidance on currency and gold movements.On the other hand, crude oil's rally has lost steam after jumping to 75. Focus next week will be OPEC's meeting, although it's broadly anticipated that the cartel will not alter production quota. In coming months, crude oil should trade within a range of 65-75.....Read the entire article

Why $200 Oil Is Just Around the Corner

Jeff Rubin believes that oil prices are going to escalate much higher. In his book "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller," Rubin foretells $200 oil and a vastly transformed global economic picture coming into focus very soon. The premise of Rubin's book is that oil is a finite resource and so called "easy" oil is waning. Inevitably production will be unable to keep up with the growing demand worldwide, and the price of oil will skyrocket.

The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years, Rubin correctly predicted the price of oil reaching $50 in 2005 and $100 in 2007. No one believed him then, either. "There continues to be widespread skepticism regarding my oil price forecast," Rubin told Rigzone. "As I noted in the book, few people have ever changed their minds during the entire history of the peak oil debate, at least insofar as 'experts' are concerned".....Read the entire article

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Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Is on ‘Slippery Slope’ Toward $60

Crude oil is on a “slippery slope” after failing to break through resistance and is set to test support at $60.43 a barrel, according to technical analysis by Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage in New York. The failure of October oil futures to breach $75.27, the June 11 high, has made crude vulnerable to “significant decline,” according to Richard Ross, a technical analyst at Auerbach Grayson. Futures dropped more than $7 since touching $75 a barrel on Aug. 25. “We are right on a precipice here and are at a very important inflection point,” Ross said in a telephone interview. Settling below $68 a barrel yesterday “opens the door to testing $65 and $60.43, which was the low on July 13”.....Read the entire article

Mexico's Calderon: BP's Deepwater Find A Wake Up Call

Mexico needs more reforms to rapidly tackle the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and shore up plummeting domestic oil production, President Felipe Calderon said Thursday. Calderon said BP PLC's giant deepwater oil discovery in the Tiber field, announced Wednesday, should serve as a wake up call for Mexico. State run Petroleos Mexicanos is legally blocked from teaming up with foreign oil companies that have more experience in the area."I hope this sign from the Gulf of Mexico tells us something," said Calderon in a radio interview.....Read complete article

Gas May Drop From Seven Year Low to $2, Options Show

Natural gas futures are poised to fall further after trading at the lowest in seven years in New York as stockpiles grew to a record for this time of year, according to options data and analysts. The cleaner burning fuel, down 56 percent this year, may plunge another 20 percent to below $2 per million British thermal units as new liquefied natural gas supplies come on stream, said Tony Regan, a consultant for Singapore based Tri-Zen International. Trading of bearish options on the U.S. Natural Gas Fund rose to a record as investors bet that the exchange traded fund tracking gas futures will keep tumbling.....Read entire article

Great Post From One of my Favorite Bears......When This Whole Thing is Over

One of the biosphere's most popular bears [in his defense, it is a bear market] is Atilla Demiray. He is one of the key figures at the wildly popular and controversial xtrends blog. He was kind enough to share his current chart work on crude oil and it is a treat. Look it over and please leave a comment on what you think, good or bad!

Click the chart to enlarge....


Check out his recent post When this whole thing is over...

Natural Gas Dips to Lowest Since March 2002 on Inventory Gain

Natural gas futures fell in New York to the lowest level since March 2002 after a government report showed stockpiles expanded more than average to a record for this time of year. Supplies rose 65 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 28 to 3.323 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said. Inventories are the highest for that week since the department began publishing data in 1993. Stockpiles typically gained 64 billion cubic feet for the period in the past five years. “We’re well supplied and there’s so little demand,” said Michael Rose, director of trading at Angus Jackson Inc. in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. “Some people are starting to question the economic recovery and that adds more pressure to gas”.....Red the complete article

Oil Retreats on Greater Than Anticipated U.S. Jobless Claims

Crude oil retreated after more Americans than anticipated filed claims for jobless benefits last week, spurring skepticism about the strength of the recovery from the country’s worst recession since the 1930s. Oil futures dropped more than $1 from the day’s highs after the Labor Department reported that applications for jobless benefits fell by 4,000 to 570,000 in the week ended Aug. 29, exceeding the 564,000 median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Crude advanced earlier as the Shanghai Composite Index climbed 4.8 percent, the most since March 4. “The oil market is taking its direction from what happens with equities,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.....Read the complete article

Crude Oil Technical Analysis From PCIFX

From guest analyst Jena Cartter of PCIFX....

Crude oil attempted to decline again, whereas the key support level,currently at 67.00, is protecting the upside trend till now. For today, we expect an incline on the intraday basis, confirmed by breaching the resistance level at 68.75; initially targeting 71.50. It is vital that trading remains above 67.00 to maintain the upside movements expected for today.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 65.00 and the key resistance at 73.15.

The general trend is to the upside as far as 47.20 remains intact with targets at 85.00.

Support: 67.70, 67.00, 66.50, 65.25, 64.65
Resistance: 67.75, 68.70, 69.70, 70.35, 71.50

Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is buying oil from 68.75 To 71.50 and stop loss below 67.70, might be appropriate.

PCIFX New Horizon Of Perfection

Disclaimer: PCIfx assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange.

Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commodity ETF Explosion

Assessing whether more commodity funds will be forced to close, with John Hyland, United States Commodity Funds CIO and the Fast Money team.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Crude oil's fall from 75.0 extends further and is now pressing near term trend line support. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside. Sustained break of the trend line will affirm the case that whole rise from 58.32 has indeed ended at 75.0 already and turn focus to 65.23 support. Further break there will confirm and target 58.32 support next. On the upside, above 71.60 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for a test on 75.0 again and probably bring rally resumption to next long term Fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27.....Read the complete article

The Nasdaq Cut Open and Broken Down

Since we follow the NASDAQ as a market direction indicator and crude oil future demand concerns rely on the markets right now we thought it would be a good idea to examine the NASDAQ Index. This market, which made its peak in 2000 at the height of the dot com bubble, remains in a secular bear market.

After making a low in March of 2001, this market has had multi-year recovery which has rallied it very close to a 50% Fibonacci retracement level. After a nearly 50% recovery, this market now appears to be faltering.

The months of September and October are now with us and both of these months tend to be treacherous for the equity markets. We would not be surprised to see more of a two way trading market before it eventually falls on its own weight and resumes a downward path. This is what we expect to happen, however, we are going to rely on our Trade Triangle technology to give us the perfect timing for that event.

Click Here For Today’s Video and we will show you graphically what we expect to happen to the NASDAQ Index.

The Death of an Energy ETF....RIP DXO

It has been no secret that the CFTC is looking into many exchange traded notes and exchange traded funds that deal in the energy markets, along with other futures and other investment vehicles, to see how the role of speculators has played in the price swings in the commodity markets. Today came the announcement that one ETN is going to be killed (ergo redeemed) as a result. Deutsche Bank announced that it will redeem all outstanding units of its PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long Exchange Traded Notes (NYSE: DXO). The financial firm said that limitations imposed by the exchange on which Deutsche Bank manages the exposure of the notes have resulted in a “regulatory event” as defined in the terms of the notes… and this is causing Deutsche Bank to redeem the notes.....complete story

Oil Hovers Above $68 as US crude Inventories Drop

(AP:LONDON) Oil prices hovered above $68 a barrel Wednesday after a two day plunge as a drop in U.S. crude inventories suggested demand may be recovering. Benchmark crude for October delivery was up 60 cents to $68.29 a barrel by midday European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract Tuesday lost $1.91 to settle at $68.05. Oil sank almost $5 a barrel in the first two days of the week as investors worried that a global economic recovery this year would be slow and may not justify the big rallies in stocks and commodities since March.

U.S. stock indexes fell about 2 percent Tuesday.

Investors were cheered somewhat when the American Petroleum Institute said late Tuesday that U.S. inventories plunged 3.2 million barrels last week. Analysts had expected the API numbers to drop 1.9 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

The Energy Department reports mandatory supply figures later on Wednesday, while refiners voluntarily report the API numbers. There were also signs Tuesday that the U.S. economy the biggest consumer of oil is improving.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index rose in August, indicating an expansion for the first time since January 2008. And the National Association of Realtors said pending U.S. home sales rose to the highest level in more than two years.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 1.81 cents to $1.80 a gallon and heating oil gained 2.41 cents to $1.78 a gallon. Natural gas jumped 3.6 cents to $2.86 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude was up 67 cents at $68.40.

Bloomberg Technical Analysis: Oil Uptrend Intact Until a Drop Below $66

Crude oil, which fell from a 10 month high of $75 a barrel in New York last week, remains in an uptrend and a sustained move lower isn’t likely unless prices settle below $66, National Australia Bank Ltd. said. Oil may climb to its recent highs in coming weeks even as the volatility in prices reflected uncertainty among traders, according to Gordon Manning, a Sydney based technical analyst. He correctly predicted Aug. 5 that the market wouldn’t settle below $66 a barrel on its way to a new high for 2009. “It’s not a downtrend in my books,” Manning said in a phone interview today. “It certainly hasn’t pushed on with the sort of aggression that I thought it might do, but there’s not enough damage to really get too worried”.....Read the complete article

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With all the movements in the market recently, especially today, traders and investors are focusing more and more on protecting capital. I’ve found that by properly knowing the trend of the symbols in my portfolio and keeping on top of those moves, I’m able to protect capital and pull profits out of the market when I can.

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Markets Close Sharply Lower, Bulls Still Have Slight Advantage Near Term

The U.S. stock indexes closed solidly lower today. The stock index bulls still have the slight overall near term technical advantage, but are fading heading into the historically bearish months of September and October.

Crude oil closed down $1.70 at $68.26 a barrel today. Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh three week low and were pressured by a big sell off in the U.S. stock market and a stronger U.S. dollar. Crude bulls and bears are on a level near term technical playing field.

Natural gas closed down 15.5 cents at $2.822 today. Prices closed near the session low today and did notch another fresh contract and seven year low. The bears are still in firm technical control. There are still no early technical clues of a market low being close at hand.

The U.S. dollar index closed up 59 points at 79.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering in a bear market was featured. Bears still have the overall near term technical advantage.

Another Natural Gas Bull Sticks His Neck Out

I was focused on writing the 4th issue for subscribers, due out the second week of September, but I came across a research article I wanted to share with readers. Martin King, an energy analyst at First Energy in Calgary is the latest to trot out the “it’s darkest before the dawn buy natural gas stocks now” theme, in a 5 page note on August 31. I’ll tell you about his key points in a minute. But first, I want to say this guy has a track record that I follow. Back on February 19 of this year, he put out a similar research note on natural gas stocks that was uncannily accurate. Just like now, sentiment for natural gas stocks was very low, and he stuck his neck out saying it’s time to be a contrarian and buy. And natural gas stocks did have a strong spring much stronger than I anticipated.....complete article

Crude Oil Retreats as U.S. Equities Decline on Earnings Concern

Crude oil retreated as U.S. equities declined on concern that the recent stock-market rally has outpaced the outlook for financial company earnings. Oil dropped and stocks declined for a third day as analysts said insurance company shares had risen too far. Prices climbed as much as $1.41 a barrel earlier today when reports showed that manufacturing in the U.S. and China, the two biggest energy consuming countries, expanded in August. Crude oil for October delivery fell 46 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $69.50 a barrel at 11:21 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are up 56 percent this year. Brent crude oil for October settlement slipped 6 cents to $69.59 a barrel on the London based ICE Futures Europe exchange.....complete article

Refiners In China At Risk As The Government May Delay Price Hike

Crude oil price rebounds to 70.2 in European morning as strong China PMI eases demand worries. Trading will likely remain thin before NY session opens. The US government will report ISM manufacturing data today. After market close, the American Petroleum Institute will report its estimates on oil inventory last week and this will act a guideline in forecasting the figures by the US Energy Department. Stock markets in Europe drop. UK's FTSE 100 Index slides -1.4% to 4843 while Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 lose -1.6% and -1% respectively. UK's manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.7 in August after rising to 50.2 in the prior month. This disappointed the market as consensus forecast was a further gain to 51.5. In the Eurozone, unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in August from 9.4% a month ago. Although the reading came out as expected, it's indeed the highest level in 10 years, suggesting the 16 nation region' s job market remained weak.....Complete Story

UNG Just Get's More and More Interesting

I have received some "entertaining" emails and comments from fellow traders about the fact that even with all of the negative and controversial news surrounding UNG I do maintain a small swing position in UNG. After 20 years of this I have just developed a habit for making sure I am in the most "news worthy" trades, some how, good or bad.

I just found this in my in box from Phil's Stock World.....

Shares of the natural gas exchange traded fund have slipped 4.4% lower today to reach a 5 year low of $10.64. Despite the present weakness in UNG, one investor was seen making far term bullish bets on the fund by targeting the April 2010 contract. It appears that the trader established a bullish reversal play by shedding 3,000 puts at the April 10 strike for 1.85 apiece in order to purchase 3,000 calls at the higher April 11 strike for 1.82 each. The trader receives a net credit of 3 pennies per contract and has positioned himself to add to his gains if shares rally higher than $11.00 by expiration. The short put position indicates that the investor is happy to have shares put to him at an effective price of $8.15 in the event that the put options land in the money by expiration. Shares need only remain higher than $10.00 for this individual to retain the 3 cent credit indefinitely.

This will be an amazing trade, for someone, somehow, someway.

Crude Oil Falls the Most in a Month as Global Equities Slump

Crude oil prices fell the most in a month as Chinese equities led a global slump on concern a slowdown in lending may derail an economic recovery in the world’s second largest energy consuming country. Oil futures declined for the first time in three days after the Shanghai Composite Index, China’s benchmark, tumbled 6.7 percent on a report that the nation’s banks cut lending. U.S., Asian and European stocks followed the Chinese market lower. “All of what we are seeing today can be blamed on the Chinese stock-market selloff,” said Tom Bentz, a senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc. in New York. “The Chinese markets have helped support commodities. Price rises have been based on expectations of increased economic growth and demand in China”.....Read Complete Article

Oil Drops as Stockpile Concerns Cap Gains on Economic Optimism

Crude oil fell for the first day in three in New York as concern over above-average distillate fuel stockpiles capped a rally built on speculation that demand will increase as the global economy recovers. U.S. distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, rose to a four week high of 162.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Department said Aug. 26. That’s near the highest level since 1983. Separately, the United Arab Emirates’ state owned company eased cuts on crude oil supply for the first time in seven months, a sign OPEC members may be overshooting their output targets. “As we get into the autumn season we’ll focus on distillate fuels and right now inventories are at very high levels and then we have the floating storage off Europe”.....Complete article

Crude Oil Will Be Bounded Between 65-75 In Coming Months

Early last week, worries on credit tightening by the Chinese Government triggered selloffs in risky assets. In the commodity universe, the base metal complex got the biggest hit as the government's massive stimulus plan has encouraged expansion in various industries. Should the government tighten lending, many projects may have to be postponed or cancelled.However, later in the week, strong macro economic data boosted sentiment again and improved market sentiment helped commodities pared some of the losses made earlier. However, the Jefferies/Reuters CRB Index still lost -0.6% over the week. Crude oil price rose for the second consecutive day last Friday as encouraging economic data.....Read Complete Article

PetroChina Profit Tops Analyst Estimates, Acquisitions Planned

PetroChina Co., the world’s most valuable company, posted profit that beat analysts’ estimates on record earnings from oil refining after the government raised fuel prices and China’s economic recovery spurred demand. Second quarter net income rose 26 percent to 31.5 billion yuan ($4.6 billion), derived by subtracting earnings for January to March from first half figures announced in Hong Kong yesterday. The Beijing based oil producer and refiner joins China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., known as Sinopec, in reporting higher profit. The gains contrast with earnings declines at Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell Plc after the global recession cut U.S. and European consumption. PetroChina, Sinopec and Cnooc Ltd., the nation’s biggest oil companies, this week pledged.....Complete Article

Is it Time to Buy Natural Gas? Let's Look at the Current Trend Chart

Smart Scan Chart Analysis for UNG confirms that a strong downtrend in natural gas is in place and that the market remains negative longer term. Trade this strong Downtrend with tight money management stops. A "Trade Triangle" indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. As we can see the answer is obvious.

Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, UNG scored -100 on a scale from -100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

-10......Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
-15......New 3 Day Low on Friday
-20......Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
-25......New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 22nd
-30......New 3 Month Low in August
-100.....Total Score



To receive a Smart Scan analysis on your favorite stock just Click Here to create a FREE portfolio.

Industry Worries Rise As Natural Gas Sags

Despite recent cutbacks in production, natural gas prices are at a seven year low and the U.S. still faces surpluses, fueling concern the industry has yet to hit bottom. At the same time, oil and gas producers are beginning to see operational costs creep up again after pushing suppliers to lower prices for products and services in recent months, putting further pressure on margins, an industry analyst said Wednesday at the NAPE summer conference in Houston. "This is a problem for all of us at the moment," Bob Fryklund, vice president of IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates, told a ballroom of oil and gas professionals during a panel discussion at the conference, formerly known as the North American Prospect Expo.....Complete Story

Natural Gas ETF Implosion

Natural gas seems to have fallen out of favor in 2009. Over the past year the spot price of natural gas has fallen from a high of $14 to below $3. The primary reasons for the free fall in price is the sizable natural gas inventories around the world combined with a relatively stubborn natural gas industry which refuses to slow production in the wake of a global recession and economic slowdown.

As the bifurcation between oil and natural gas began to play out this year, many looked at the widening gap in the oil to natural gas price ratio as an opportunity to long natural gas, which they thought was merely lagging the recovery in oil prices by a few weeks.....Read The Complete Article

UNG, USO Trading Alerts Newsletter From The Gold and Oil Guy

UNG Natural Gas Trading Fund – Daily Chart
Nat gas looks to be finding support at the $11.50 level. This could provide a great short term trade for those active traders looking to grab a quick 5-10% gain if the price starts to rally intraday. Overall natural gas has been trading down and sideways.




USO Crude Oil Trading Fund - Weekly Chart
Crude oil has a very nice looking chart. The bullish pennant is pointing to a much higher price. Currently the price is stuck under the June resistance level but appears to be holding up nicely. Any week now I expect to see a sharp rally or a sharp sell off. Let’s continue to watch the price unfold.



Technical Traders Conclusion:
The analysis above allows you to see that crude oil is trading in a bullish pennant. I am watching the daily charts very closely for a buy signal. Waiting for my low risk buy signal is important because it confirms momentum and bullish price action before we put our money to work. This commodity could easily roll over and sell down quickly which is why I always follow my trading strategy to help avoid getting caught on the wrong side of the trade.

Natural gas is currently over sold in my opinion and ready for a bounce. If the price starts to move higher tomorrow (above Wednesdays high) then you could go long for a 1-5 day trade. There is a good chance it will provide 5-10% return, but be sure to take profits quickly as it is just a bounce (dead cat bounce). If the price drops below Wednesdays low then I would not be holding it any longer.

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Oil Declines Below $70 on Signs Demand Will Be Slow to Recover

Crude oil fell below $70 a barrel in New York on signs that demand will be slow to rebound after a report yesterday showed that inventories unexpectedly rose last week in the U.S., the world’s largest energy consuming country. Oil prices dropped as much as 2.2 percent to their lowest level in a week after the Energy Department said crude stockpiles rose 128,000 barrels last week, compared with forecasts for a 1.15 million barrel reduction. U.S. jobless claims increased more than estimated. They peaked in April in the midst of the worst recession since the Great Depression. “We’re not seeing anything to suggest demand is recovering, so there’s nothing on the fundamental side that would suggest prices would be this high,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist.....Complete Story

Commodities Move Sideways But With A Mildly Bullish Tone

Crude oil recovers modestly in European morning. Rise in Asian stock markets and strong sentiment index in Germany boost price. Currently trading at 72.2, the benchmark contract will continue its narrow trading ahead of oil inventory report.
Germany's IFO business climate index rose to 90.5 in August, compared with market expectation of 89.1, from 87.3 in the prior month. Leading the surprisingly strong number was a +4.6 point increase in the 'expectations' component. The 'current conditions' component also gained +1.8 points during the month. In Asia, stocks advanced as several Chinese companies' reported better than expected earnings results. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged.....Complete Story

Crude Oil Falls as Dollar Strengthens on Chinese Demand Concern

Crude oil fell for a second day as the dollar strengthened, undermining demand for assets used to hedge against inflation. Oil dropped as much as 1.9 percent as the dollar advanced on a report by the Xinhua News Agency that China is studying curbs on industrial overcapacity, increasing concern the global economic recovery will slow. Oil also declined after an unexpected gain in crude inventories. “The fact that we are getting some strength in the dollar is certainly a contributing factor to the recent weakness we are seeing in oil,” said Stephen Schork, president of consultant Schork Group Inc. in Villanova, Pennsylvania. “There’s still a lot of supply in this market and not a lot of demand”.....Complete Story

Peak Oil? Crude Oil Supply Data Doesn't Lie

After the epic crash last year, the price of oil is stabilizing and it should rise exponentially over the following years. Over the past year, global consumption has stayed weak, however once the economy recovers, crude oil should resume its secular bull market. Despite the 'demand destruction' hype, it is interesting to note that during this severe global recession, worldwide oil usage has dropped by a minuscule 2.7%. So, what will happen when the world comes out of this recession? Who will rise up to the challenge and meet our insatiable thirst for energy? These are critical questions not many are willing to ask. According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day..... Complete Story